Recently, the news of the falsification of U.S. employment data has sparked heated discussions.
On July 5, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the number of new nonfarm payrolls for April and May.
The number of new non-farm payrolls in April was revised down to 108,000 from 165,000.
The number of new non-farm payrolls in May was revised down by 218,000 from 272,000.
After the revision, the number of new jobs in April and May decreased by 111,000 compared to the pre-revision period.
As soon as the news came out, the network boiled.
Many netizens said: Unexpectedly, the United States has also begun to fake, in order to hold on to not cutting interest rates, they don't want to lose their faces.
According to the initial standard, the number of new jobs in April was inflated by 52.8%. The number of new jobs added in May was inflated by 24.8%. In the two months of April ~ May, the total inflated by 34%.
It's too fake, no matter how outrageous the statistics are, there shouldn't be such a big error!
At the same time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics also released data for June, adding 206,000 new jobs.
Netizens have said: According to historical experience, it will continue to be revised downward next month, and the actual number of new jobs in June will be 154,000.
When the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released employment data for April and May, the Federal Reserve said that the number of new jobs in the United States was higher than expected, the economy continued to improve, inflation was still high, and there was no plan to cut interest rates in the short term.
Netizens exclaimed: This is the world's largest power, the United States, which claims to have open and transparent data, this employment data, if it is revised, it will be modified, and the magnitude is so large that it is estimated that even North Korea is not as good as it.
Not so long ago, an even more magical scene took place.
On April 25, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that the U.S. GDP growth rate in the first quarter was 1.6%.
On May 30, the U.S. Department of Commerce lowered the U.S. GDP for the first quarter to 1.3%.
In just one month, US GDP fell by 0.3% in the first quarter.
It seems that the U.S. economy is really in serious trouble.
Seeing this, some people disagreed: You are smearing the first power in the universe, do you see that other aircraft carriers are sailing freely around the world, like there is an economic problem?
They always have a point, and according to their logic, as long as the American aircraft carrier is there, there will be no problems with the American economy.
Just like as long as Evergrande football is there, Evergrande will not go bankrupt.
As you recall, since last year, the top level of the United States has been constantly flying to the big countries in the East.
What are they doing here?
The United States will have a fiscal deficit of $1.7 trillion in 2023, and it can only survive by issuing additional U.S. bonds.
However, they came happily, only to return disappointed.
In the end, there was no choice but to force allies such as Japan and the United Kingdom to continue to increase their holdings of government bonds.
The U.S. national debt has increased rapidly from $33.17 trillion at the end of last year to $34.85 trillion now, an increase of $1.68 trillion in just seven months, equivalent to South Korea's GDP in one year in 2023.
No, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has always followed the lead of the United States, is also beginning to worry.
On June 27, the IMF lowered its GDP forecast for 2024 from 2.7% to 2.6%. At the same time, it warned the United States that excessive fiscal deficits and the national debt, which continues to break the ceiling, will drag the American and global economies to the brink of recession.
In addition, the U.S. Consumer Expectations Index (based on consumers' short-term outlook on income, business and labor market conditions) continues to hover below 80, which is an important leading indicator that the U.S. economy will fall into recession.
All of these phenomena suggest that the US economy is really not optimistic, and may be worse than everyone thinks.
Currently, the United States has 4 options:
First, continue to not cut interest rates, and resist until after the U.S. election (November), the U.S. economy may fall into recession.
Second, interest rates will be cut in September, and normal trade with the eastern countries will be resumed in order to prevent hyperinflation.
Third, if you start a war, you will still be the boss if you win, and I am afraid that the second child will not be guaranteed if you lose.
Fourth, the national debt defaulted, the US credit collapsed, the dollar dived, and a second Venezuela was born.
How do you think the United States will choose?
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