Hungary is "in charge", and what are the variables of the EU

【International Observation】

Author: JIANG Li (Researcher, Institute of Russian, East European and Central Asian Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Distinguished Researcher, Center for Czech Studies, Zhejiang Vocational College of Finance)

Maybe it's different, maybe it's awkward for half a year.

On July 1, Hungary, which is considered a "troublemaker" by many EU countries, succeeded Belgium in the EU presidency. Less than a week after "being in charge", trouble came. Agence France-Presse only disclosed on the 4th that EU leaders were extremely worried about the rumors that Hungarian Prime Minister Orban was about to visit Moscow, and Orban arrived in Moscow on the 5th.

On the eve of Orban's visit to Russia, European Council President Charles Michel wrote on social media platforms: "The EU Presidency does not have the authority to engage with Russia on behalf of the EU. ”

But just as no one can stop Hungary from holding the EU presidency, no one can stop Orban from advancing his European ideals and visiting the countries he wants to visit.

A different Hungary

Hungary held the EU presidency for the first time in 2011, taking the helm of one of the EU's most important institutions for the first time in 13 years.

The term "ownership" is a metaphor – a presidency does not have much real power, but it can promote its own interests and strengthen its international influence by elevating its own priorities to the top of the EU agenda and guiding the debate among EU member states on the direction of the EU's direction.

Hungary was once the "top student" of the political and economic transformation of Central and Eastern European countries, joining NATO and the first wave of the EU's eastward expansion. However, in the eyes of some EU countries, Hungary is now "non-mainstream", and its emphasis on strengthening the government's policies to regulate the media, the judiciary, non-governmental organizations, and social ethics is seen as exploring the path of "illiberal democracy".

Orban is a staunch defender of national interests and national distinctiveness, and has been re-elected since 2010, making him the longest-serving prime minister of the European Union. Hungary's political stability and policy continuity are unique in the EU, creating a favourable domestic political environment for the smooth implementation of its presidency. But because the Orban government often speaks out against EU policies and positions, it faces extreme political and financial pressure within the EU.

Hungary and the European Union, one is "rebellious" in the midst of political stability, and the other is "conservative" in the changing situation. It is foreseeable that the next six months will be challenging for both sides.

Difficult road to work

The new EU presidency is already full of thorns before taking office.

Hungary sees its presidency as an opportunity to present a clear vision for European development. Hungary has been preparing for this since June 2023 with the first establishment of the Department of European Union Affairs to take charge of the preparations. The European Parliament and some EU member states regard this as a "disaster" and have repeatedly tried to prevent Hungary from holding the rotating presidency. The fundamental reason is that Hungary and the EU have a conflict of values, and often run counter to the "mainstream" of the EU on issues such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, relations with Russia, and democracy and the rule of law.

Hungary has repeatedly blocked, downplayed or delayed the EU's joint decision on sanctions against Russia and aid to Ukraine, opposed Ukraine's accession to the EU, and maintained close cooperation with Russia. Orban has thus been labelled as a "provocateur" and "troublemaker" in the EU. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Landsbergis has carefully counted that "about 41% of EU resolutions on Ukraine are boycotted by Hungary".

On June 1, 2023, the European Parliament adopted a resolution calling on EU member states to block the Hungarian presidency. It would be difficult to change the arrangement of the presidency by unanimity, which would require a unanimous decision of Member States. Despite this, the European Parliament has continued to obstruct it.

On January 18, 2024, the European Parliament passed a resolution condemning "the Hungarian government's deliberate and systematic undermining of the EU's fundamental values" and criticizing the European Commission for prematurely unfreezing Hungary's €10.2 billion in EU funds; On 24 April, a resolution was adopted condemning Hungary's adoption of the Law on the Protection of State Sovereignty (aimed at preventing foreign individuals and groups from interfering in the internal affairs of the State) and the establishment of the Office for the Protection of Sovereignty, which it considered to be contrary to EU law and democratic standards, and again questioned Hungary's eligibility for the Presidency.

There are also some member states that oppose a forced change in the established rotation order, notably Poland, which also has a dispute with the EU over the rule of law and values. Then-Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki criticized: "The European Parliament's resolution violates EU laws and rules, and the EU should strive to eliminate differences of opinion among member states, instead of taking violent action against certain member states that oppose the policy of unity, and the veto power of member states should be preserved." Italian Deputy Prime Minister António Tajani also said: "No matter what one thinks of Prime Minister Orban, no one can stop a member state from leading the EU." ”

As the date of Hungary's "ownership" approaches, many countries are worried that the pan-European agenda of "aiding Ukraine and containing Russia" may be postponed, and 12 EU member states including the Czech Republic have urged Belgium, which is about to end its rotating term, to accelerate the political process related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. As a result, in late June, the EU officially launched accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova, approved the 14th package of sanctions against Russia, and found a legal workaround to avoid Hungary's veto of the EU's use of profits from Russia's frozen assets to buy weapons for Ukraine. It's a bit of a sense of queuing up all night to refuel before the price of oil rises.

Revival and change

In the midst of the criticism, Hungary still took up the post.

"Make the EU great again" is the slogan of Hungary's EU presidency. The sentence structure is too familiar, but the content is different.

"Europe's ship is not heading in the right direction, and the Hungarian Presidency has a political responsibility – to show the possibility of change and to keep Europe alive," said Hungarian EU Affairs Minister Bokaux. ”

"Make the EU Great Again", which aims to revive and transform the EU, has three meanings: first, Hungary will pursue a strong European policy; Second, EU member states are stronger together than alone; Third, the EU should become an independent global player that independently determines its strategic interests.

The colorful Rubik's Cube, invented by the Hungarians in the 70s of the 20th century, has also become the symbol of the presidency. The Rubik's Cube symbolizes the ingenuity and problem-solving skills of the Hungarians, as well as the complexity of European affairs. The Rubik's Cube is made up of 27 elements, which is in line with the number of EU member states, symbolizing European unity.

In search of "real solutions to Europe's real problems", Hungary wants to achieve seven goals: to restore the competitiveness of the EU, to strengthen the European defense policy, to promote the process of EU enlargement, to combat illegal immigration, to shape the future cohesion policy, to develop a peasant-centric EU agricultural policy, and to address the problem of population decline.

Bocau stressed that peace is the cornerstone of the Hungarian presidency of the European Union and the foundation of its seven objectives, and that "Hungary is most concerned about avoiding the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and promoting a diplomatic solution to the conflict". On the issue of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Hungary has been holding its position for more than two years. On June 16, Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó said at a Swiss peace conference: "Hungary is actually the last EU country that has not cut ties with Russia." Hungary is ready to mediate with Russia due to the fact that open channels of communication with Russia are maintained. ”

Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Orban has not only worked hard to keep Hungary away from war and become an "island of peace" in Europe, but also actively pushed Europe closer to peace. On July 2, the day after Hungary assumed the presidency of the European Union, Orban made his first visit to Ukraine as Prime Minister of the EU Presidency, his first visit to Ukraine after 12 years.

"The issue of peace is important not only for Ukraine, but also for Europe as a whole," Orban noted. Hungary is not against Ukraine, but against the war. He advised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to consider a ceasefire before negotiating a peace process.

Before his visit to Russia, Orban also said that Hungary would not make a decision on war and peace, but would submit a report to the European Council on the possibility of peace by better understanding the positions of Russia and Ukraine.

Promote EU-China cooperation

Strengthening European competitiveness is a core objective of the Hungarian presidency. This goal is supported by the three largest EU countries, Germany, France and Italy.

This goal is also relevant to China.

The Hungarian government believes that strengthening EU-China relations will greatly promote Europe's competitiveness. Szijjártó said a few days ago: "Developing cooperation with China is one of the important tasks of the Hungarian presidency of the European Union. He pointed out that EU-China relations must be based on pragmatic cooperation based on mutual respect. Close cooperation with Chinese companies is a prerequisite for the electrification transformation strategy of European automakers, which will play an important role in restoring the EU's competitiveness and environmental protection. Punitive tariffs and trade restrictions will undermine mutually beneficial EU-China cooperation.

On July 2, Orban published an article in the Financial Times: "Hungary advocates an open economy and international cooperation, believing that healthy competition and the application of the best technology can lead to greater economic growth." When it comes to the development and production of electric vehicles, regulations that discourage industry players and burden people are unsustainable. Hungary's goal is to push EU member states to put aside ideological arguments and reach a new 'European competitiveness agreement'. ”

In this context, Hungary's active promotion of EU-China cooperation is certainly worth looking forward to. The obstacles and difficulties should not be underestimated.

From the first day of Hungary's EU presidency, its political ambitions have met with resistance. The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, was customary to visit to consult with the Government of the Presidency, but she did not follow this practice. At the first plenary session of the European Parliament in mid-July, Orban is also unlikely to have the opportunity to speak on the priorities of the presidency.

In the face of European political realities, change is certainly difficult. However, Hungary is not alone, and there are people in Europe who speak with Hungary on economic and trade issues and diplomatic and security issues.

For example, the European Union's temporary countervailing duty on electric vehicles imported from China since July 5 has aroused widespread concern and opposition from political and business circles in many European countries, who believe that this is not in the interests of the European automotive industry and consumers, will hinder industry innovation and development, and jeopardize Europe's energy transition prospects.

6 months is really too short for the EU. Peace and change are a long road. Czech Senator Kamplova is optimistic about Hungary's rotating mission: "Hungary is a self-confident country, and even as a member of the European Union, it has never lost its national pride and the right to express its opinion. I hope that Hungary will really begin the process of rebuilding a strong Europe by explicitly supporting the uniqueness of the nation-state. ”

Guangming Daily (2024-07-07 08 edition)

Source: Guangming Net-Guangming Daily