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Preface
Recently, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos has not only comprehensively expanded his provocative actions in the South China Sea, but also destabilized the situation in Scarborough Shoal, Thitu Island, Ren'ai Jiao and other regions.
They also took the initiative to open the door and demanded that the US military deploy the "Typhon" medium-range missile system to domestic bases, posing a great threat to the mainland.
But a growing number of Filipinos are realizing that the authorities' actions are bordering on "madness" and represent a point of no return for their country.
Former President Rodrigo Duterte, Marcos's sister Ime Marcos and others have been killed, and Marcos's sister also warned that if the Philippines is targeted by China's superb missiles, the United States will not be able to stop it.
The U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty Temporarily "Fails"
In 1975, Marcos's father, former Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Sr., once admonished:
The excessive actions of the United States military bases in the Philippines will trigger "hostility from countries threatened by the United States" and bring huge security risks to the Philippines, including even the potential for a nuclear attack.
This passage has been quoted many times by the Philippine media, reminding the authorities that the authorities must be very careful and vigilant about the purpose of the United States to build bases in the Philippines.
But now Marcos' actions have completely broken the boundaries drawn by his father.
It not only allows the United States to wantonly provoke and threaten other countries in the Philippines, but even takes the initiative to build bases to welcome the deployment of missiles by the United States, without fear of provoking other countries.
All Marcos relied on was the United States and their 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty.
The treaty clearly stipulates that in the event of an attack on the territory, troops, and ships of either side of the United States or the Philippines in the Pacific Ocean, the other side will have the right to take action to respond.
The Philippine media once regarded it as a guideline, and repeatedly labeled the "US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty" as "the Philippine version of NATO's Article V", believing that they were under armed protection by the United States.
Therefore, even if it knows that the issue of intermediate-range missiles is one of the most sensitive matters in the Asia-Pacific region, the Philippines dares to use the country as a "cornerstone" to get the United States to put missiles on its own territory.
The move also angered Russia, which announced in April that it would restart the production of intermediate-range missiles in response to "irregular" moves by the United States.
The Philippine "bet" was shaken in June this year during the Second Thomas Shoal resupply incident.
Eight "special forces" of the Philippine Army were injured in the reasonable law enforcement actions of the mainland coast guard, and some were revealed to be disabled due to injuries, and the weapons on board were also seized.
After the United States issued a low-key condemnation, two US nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, the USS Reagan and the USS Roosevelt, also left the South China Sea for their Guam base from June 13 to 19.
The US media believes that this is a clear signal from the military that it does not want to escalate the situation and avoid miscalculations, otherwise they can logically extend the deployment.
In this case, the Philippines can only declare that the friction with China is a "misunderstanding" and will not trigger the provisions of the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty.
Because according to the rules of the treaty, only "targeted attacks" can be counterattacked, and how to define this criterion is also very broad, and the United States can interpret it at will.
Therefore, the follow-up incident is gone, which also makes the media and politicians in the Philippines who have been clamoring for inviting the US military to fight back "unacceptable" for a while.
They had previously claimed that "attacks on military personnel were seen as a provocation of war", only to realize that the treaty did not seem to work at a critical moment.
Then the "flexibility" of the "US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty" has been questioned, which means that the Philippine government is constantly playing with fire, and even if there is a domestic crisis in the future, it is unknown whether the United States will choose to intervene personally or explain flexibly.
One of the long-standing concerns in the Philippines is how much the United States can help if they are forced into a conflict and are hit by missiles from other countries.
Whether the Philippines is still at risk of being "destroyed" with the personal intervention of the United States is something that Duterte has warned about.
Moreover, the Philippines, which is small and densely populated, will undoubtedly have to pay more if it is attacked and cannot be defended.
Two "warnings" from Marcos' sister
Marcos's sister Yimei serves as the chairman of the Philippine Senate Foreign Relations Committee and is also a well-known "number one" in Philippine political circles.
But unlike her brother, Imeh has a poor attitude toward the United States, and she does not support Marcos's continued provocation of China in the South China Sea.
At the same time, Yimei believes that if you want to rely on these political means in exchange for benefits in the United States, the United States will not be "kind" to help you.
In April, before the deployment of intermediate-range missiles in the Philippines, Imay warned Marcos that the "generosity" of the United States was in fact the trigger for the conflict in the Philippines.
Look at other countries around the globe that have embraced U.S. intervention, such as Ukraine and Palestine.
This hinted to Marcos at the "cost" that the Philippines faces if it is obsessed, and that the United States is suspected of using the Philippines as a gun, and that the aid is insignificant compared to the country's risk.
Although there has always been a sarcasm that Marcos and his sister have different policies on the surface, they are in fact a group of family interests.
But Ime's warning really woke up some Filipinos to know that it was impossible to take money from the United States without paying the price.
Judging from Marcos' continued push for the deployment of US "Typhon" intermediate-range missiles and a series of provocative actions against the mainland in the South China Sea, there is a high probability that there is no opinion on his sister's remarks.
On July 3, Imei spoke out again that she had seen a document.
It analyzes "reports of a possible Chinese attack on the Philippines," in which as many as 25 locations in the Philippines are locked down and use hypersonic missiles.
Most of these targets are key U.S. weapons deployment sites, military bases, supply ports, and other locations, and the document argues that these targets will be subject to the highest priority attacks.
Yimei also appealed: At this stage, the Philippines does not have any way to deal with such hypersonic missiles, and even the United States has nothing to do with them, so it can be said that if the Philippines is targeted by China's hypersonic missiles, the United States will not be able to stop them.
Although there are only nine U.S. military bases in the Philippines, Imeh believes that they will suffer more "places that may be attacked" than just these nine places.
Based on this, Yimei believes that the Philippines should now calm down and think about the interests of neighboring countries, which is what they need to take seriously.
However, at the moment, in order to avoid a more "derailed" accident in the South China Sea.
Earlier this month, the ninth round of talks between China and the Philippines on the South China Sea bilateral consultation mechanism began, and the Philippines expressed its willingness to "restore trust and rebuild confidence" with China.
As for whether the Philippine government can do it, it is still unknown, they have also made many promises on the issue of China-Philippines relations before, and these commitments were unilaterally reneged on by Marcos in the end, and China-Philippines relations have reached this point.
Is it really feasible for the United States to assist in intercepting missiles?
As far as the facts are concerned, Imeh's statement that "the United States does not have the ability to help the Philippines in missile defense" is completely correct.
Because now the U.S. Navy is in the Red Sea region to help allies Israel intercept missiles, drones and rockets from the Houthis.
According to the source, there is a high rate of interception of armed attacks in the Red Sea region.
Between January and February this year, the Houthis fired more than 200 missiles and rockets, of which the U.S. military claimed intercepted more than 95 percent, and some missed.
So in response to hypersonic missile strikes, does the United States currently have the ability to intercept them? According to the statistics of the US Navy website, their level of interception of missiles above Mach 6 is extremely poor, and the failure rate can reach more than 80%.
The most optimistic outcome previously estimated by the Philippine media was that the United States would help the Philippines "assist in defense" when it was attacked by missiles, minimize losses and look for opportunities to counterattack, but now it seems unrealistic.
The most powerful interception system of the US military at present is the land-based Aegis system, which can launch the "Standard-3" high-precision interceptor missile with a maximum distance of 1,000 kilometers.
In addition, the ground-based Aegis mainly relies on the pulse engine to achieve high-precision signal reception, and the S-band radar in the low frequency band of the ground console can quickly scan and capture the target, so as to implement calculation interception.
The most powerful short-range system of the US military is the "THAAD" system, which is equipped with a first-class engine, although the flight range of its interceptor missile is much shorter than that of the "Aegis" system.
However, the THAAD interceptor missile is highly mobile and effective in controlling short-range missiles.
However, the "Standard-3" missile launched by the land-based Aegis once had a record of intercepting Mach 6 flying missiles, and it is generally believed that its maximum interception does not exceed Mach 10.
However, whether it is China and Russia's short-range hypersonic missiles that mainly strike ground targets, such as the "Dagger" and "Dongfeng-17" or long-range intercontinental missiles "Avangard" and "Dongfeng-41" missiles, they all exceed the upper limit of the "Aegis" interception system, which is currently the strongest in the US military.
In practical experiments, American anti-missile weapons were considered ineffective against Chinese and Russian hypersonic missiles.
In addition, if the United States helps the Philippines to assist in defense, it is very likely that they will use the shipborne Aegis system with degraded performance.
Its interception computing power and missile reaction and tracking speed are smaller, and it is even less powerful in the face of Chinese and Russian missiles.
So Marcos Jr.'s sister is right when she says that "the United States does not have the ability to help the Philippines defend against hypersonic missiles."
However, the US media also mentioned that the United States is currently developing a newer generation of "Aegis" laser cannon project that uses optics to achieve anti-missile, and the target specifically targeted at the interception of laser weapons is hypersonic missiles.
However, the United States has not yet succeeded in developing available technologies, and it seems unrealistic to expect the Biden administration to help defend the country.
Duterte questioned what is the "solution" for the Philippines.
Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has repeatedly spoken out in recent times, criticizing the Marcos Jr. government's wrong policy line.
He believes that the United States is the main culprit behind the dispute, and that the Philippines is wrong to "throw a fist" at China in its eagerness, and that such an act will bring war and disaster to them.
In an interview on July 1, Duterte reiterated that the Philippine government allows the United States to "exploit" geopolitical competition with China.
Moreover, they are well aware of this, and the more the United States deploys weapons and missiles, not only will it not bring security to the Philippines, but it will make it easier for them to suffer war.
Philippine policy scholar Cado Sarudo has suggested that the United States' actions in a year have made the country several times more likely to be hit.
There are also questions raised: The United States has many military bases around China, but it has chosen to locate the location of missiles and the "Agile Combat Deployment Plan" in the Philippines, is this really helping them?
Of course, this is not the case, and it is intended to widen the scope of the conflict in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, and further expand the consequences of any action taken by China.
Pacifists believe that it is not too late for the Philippines to take action to end its role as a "missile launcher" for the United States, and that they only need to implement three strategies, and that it will not be so difficult for the Philippines.
The first is that the Marcos administration restored the previous administration's efforts to transform domestic bases into "non-confrontational bases" for the United States.
That is, the US Navy can deploy warships to dock for supplies, repairs, and visits, and refuse to allow US strategic forces to be stationed with live ammunition.
This is a step to proactively demonstrate its "non-threatening" position to China and other countries to prevent misunderstandings.
The second is that the Philippines will stop its "active threat strategy", that is, make its domestic public combat readiness completely transparent and eliminate risks in the South China Sea.
The outside world does not know how much American power is retained in the Philippine base, so the Philippine military media believes that this may make them "used as a counterforce gathering place" and suffer a blow.
It can be made as open as Singapore in exchange for "peace of mind" from other countries.
Third, the Philippine government continues to promote communication and negotiations with China on the South China Sea issue, and Marcos must not only send people to "talk" but also ensure implementation.
If the consensus they have just reached is immediately undermined and reversed next month (such as the Philippines' voluntary reneging on the Ren'ai Jiao resupply agreement), it will bring great damage to the country's credibility.
When it comes to crunch time, no one will continue to trust Marcos, so integrity is crucial.
To sum up, if the Philippine government pulls back from the precipice in a timely manner, does not go down the wrong path, and does not heed the demands of the United States for instigation and instigation, then it is entirely possible that China-Philippines relations will take a turn for the better.
On the contrary, the Philippine Secretary of Defense and others have come up with the "US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty" at every turn to try to suppress China, gambling that China "will not dare to cross the line on the South China Sea issue", and continuing to carry out absurd blackmail actions with the back of the United States.
At that time, the US side will resolutely abandon the Philippines as before, not to lend a helping hand.
Resources:
"Filipino Scholar: The Philippine 'External Threat' Is Coming from the Marcos Administration's Pro-American Policy" Shangguan News
"China-Philippines New Round of South China Sea Consultations "De-escalate" the Situation, Global Times
"The U.S. military deploys medium-range missiles in the Philippines, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responds" CCTV
"Philippine Senator and President Marcos's Sister Opposes External Interference in the South China Sea Issue: The Philippines Is on the Top, Foreign "Gifts" Will Add Oil to the Fire" Observer.com