At the beginning of July, halfway through 2024, it's time to rethink your thinking.
Instead of looking at the daily and weekly lines, let's look at the monthly line first.
The Shanghai Composite Index, a long black candle in January, fell 6%, a long white candle in February, rose 8%, followed by a small white candle in March and April, a small black candle in May, and a medium yin candle in June.
From the perspective of the annual line, it is a doji that closes a black candle.
That is, in the first half of the year, it was slightly down as a whole.
However, from the perspective of individual stock experience, most of the stocks are "loss-making", and the proportion of stocks that can make everyone make money is not high.
Compared with 2023, the hype of Dragon Flying Phoenix Dance will be much duller in 2024.
The ones that will rise in 2024 are mainly banks, electricity, oil, coal, and home appliances.
These sectors, in general, do not have a lot of retail holdings.
And the worst is still some big white horses, some small-cap stocks and micro-cap stocks, and ST stocks.
The big white horse did not fall deeply, but it still continued to fall, falling endlessly.
Small-cap stocks and micro-cap stocks, in repaying the debt speculated in 2023, can also be regarded as a round of catch-up.
The rest is ST's stock, which is actually deliberately guided by the market to delist and purge the junk stocks in the market.
At the same time, the reform of policies and systems is also speeding up.
It mainly revolves around dividends, reductions, and delisting, which can be said to rectify the market.
In the case that the market environment is not particularly good, we will carry out reforms in a big way.
Many people say that they do not consider the actual situation of the market, which is equivalent to re-operating on a patient who is not very healthy, which is very risky.
For three consecutive years, when the market stock funds have been exhausted, we will carry out reforms to bear the pressure.
This is the main reason why the market is still not improving, and even falling.
Including the opening of the IPO gate and the reopening of refinancing, it seems to have become the last straw that crushed the market.
The quantification, which has been criticized by the market, has only made some restrictions, and has reappeared in the market, doing the same work, picking up the wool of the market.
The headwinds do not seem to have improved substantially, and there is no obvious trend of incremental funds entering the market.
On the contrary, the trading volume of the market has returned to the level of more than 600 billion, without improvement or sound.
What's going on in this market, and what are the real main forces doing?
If you want to understand this, you must first figure out who the real main force is.
Who can control the direction of our market, whether it is policy, or money.
The essence of the capital market is a game of chips.
In fact, many retail investors have long understood this.
No matter how good the fundamentals of a stock are, if all retail investors are participating, it will not go far.
Because of the rise and fall of stocks, interests can only go far if they are bound to large funds and the main force.
Who is in the hands of the chips directly determines the direction of the stock market.
In the last round of bull market, it was the public fund that undertook a large number of chips, which not only became the booster of the market, but also became the receiver of the market.
In the last round of bull market, a large amount of capital allocation undertook the chips and boosted the rise of the market.
Among them, the main force relies on financing, and harvests the allocation of funds from retail investors, and it is clear who leads and who takes over.
In this round of the market, we see that the clear entry is through a large number of ETF holdings to enter the market, bailing out funds.
We don't study where these bailout funds come from, but we all know this.
Only this part of the funds, since the beginning of the year, has been buying, buying, buying.
On the one hand, there is the market's bearish expectations and short-selling situation, and on the other hand, there is the wanton buying of disk protection funds.
It seems that this is a contest, but it is actually a big game of chess.
Think about a problem, those short-selling forces, even if they can borrow and lend securities, are limited funds and chips.
On the other hand, it is the disk protection funds that drive the money printing machine, and you can also see who the opponent is.
Is this a gamble?
This is just a trick, on the surface it is a game, and behind the scenes it is a naked exchange of chips.
The ending of this game of chess seems to have been predestined for a long time, but the chess has not yet been played, and we only see that black and white are still hunting, and we have not seen the endgame.
If you still don't understand the first half of the article, it is recommended to read it repeatedly, otherwise, it doesn't make much sense to read the second half.
You have to understand what the market wants to do, so that you can have a response and know what to do.
Familiar friends know that throughout the first half of the year, my judgment of the market, in terms of direction and time, is not bad, but there are almost no mistakes, because I understand the pattern of the market, as well as the main plan.
The capital of the entire market and the current economic pattern determine this round of market, and we must go out in person to have a chance.
So, this time, the main fund started to absorb chips by himself.
Following this line of thought, you will be able to clearly judge the direction of the market for a period of time in the future.
Judging from the behavior of the main force, most of the chip absorption is below the 3000 position.
There are two ways to buy chips.
The first is an index fund ETF.
The largest amount of purchases is the CSI 300, which has increased its position by more than 20 billion yuan this year.
This is followed by the SSE 50 and then the CSI 500.
Of course, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and GEM also have them.
Only the science and technology 50 and science and technology 100 did not see the main figure, which is somewhat meaningful.
The reason why I increase my holdings through ETFs is mainly because I don't want to affect the fluctuation of stock prices and really complete the low absorption.
After all, buying directly in the stock market is too obvious, and it is easy to lose the chips.
The second is to increase the position through social security.
In the first quarter of this year, the social security fund was a large number of purchases.
The second quarter has not yet been announced.
The social security fund is a standard fund that cannot afford to lose money, and it is often accurate to copy the bottom.
This part of the money, the selected listed companies, almost no stepping on the thunder ST and delisting, is a standard weather vane.
For this, retail investors may not be able to track it, because the announcement is lagging behind.
However, if there are multiple social security stocks that have increased their positions, they can be closely watched, and there will definitely be opportunities.
In the second half of the year, there is a high probability that the trend of shocks will continue, but the amplitude of shocks should be relatively small.
The reason is that the floating chips will be cleaned up in the fluctuations again and again, and naturally there will be no more violent shocks.
Judging from the decline rate of 3174, it has slowed down significantly compared with January, because there are not many panic chips and the market has shrunk.
So the strategy is very simple, chase the fall and kill the rise.
In this game, you look weak, but in fact you are very strong.
And when you think it's strong, it gets weak again.
On the way to the end of the chess game, watch more and move less, and don't rush to the layout.
Someone else's big net is stretching out over there, waiting for the fish to slip through the net.