Between China and the United States, the Taiwan issue has always been an issue that is difficult to bypass. Many people believe that as long as the Taiwan issue is resolved, then the Sino-US issue will also be resolved. The United States has lost Taiwan, which can control China, and its voice in the Asia-Pacific region will be greatly weakened. However, the author always believes that if there is a showdown between China and the United States in the future, it will not be in the Taiwan Strait, let alone in the South China Sea, but in the biggest trump card of the United States - that is, Japan.
China is perhaps the most geographically unique country in the world. Russia is a continental power that spans a vast territory from Europe to Central, West, East and North America. However, Russia does not have an "ocean" and inherently lacks access to the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans. The only seaport facing the Pacific Ocean is Vladivostok, which is frozen for half a year. Today, Russia is still a half-landlocked country.
The United States is the world's most endowed sea power country, with the Pacific Ocean in the west and the Atlantic Ocean in the east, and no strong enemies in the north and south. However, the United States is far away from the Eurasian continent, has no roots in the Old World, and lacks absolute control.
China, on the other hand, has the gift of both land power and sea power.
China has more than 9,000 kilometers of coastline and countless natural harbors, most of which are ice-free, and is connected to the main shipping lanes of the Pacific Ocean 3,000 miles away. This alone is enough to make Russians cry.
Not only does China have a long coastline, but it also has a vast inland territory, with Xinjiang embedded in Central Asia, Yunnan deep into Southeast Asia, and Tibet overlooking South Asia. It can be said that China occupies the most advantageous position in the Eurasian continent and even in the world. It can be described as the land of abundance and the posture of hegemony. From ancient times to modern times, it is no accident that China has always been one of the world's great powers; China's rise in the past 30 years is not only due to the hard work of the party and the government and the hard work of the people, but also because China has the most favorable geographical location in the world.
As early as 1919, the geographer Mackinder said: "China will stand shoulder to shoulder with the United States and Great Britain and eventually lead the world to build a civilization for a quarter of the human population that is neither purely Oriental nor fully Westernized." "At that time, China was still poor and weak, and it was invaded by foreign powers. But Mackinder accurately predicted a hundred years from now.
The Western powers have long been aware of China's natural endowment and huge potential, so they have long used various means to contain China's development. There are two killer features, Russia and Japan.
Historian Tang Degang has such a conclusion: "Russia and Japan are China's evil neighbors, and they will attack and deal with difficulties in a pincer way." ”
Russia has sandwiched China from the east, west, and north, restricting China's development into the interior of Asia and Europe. Since the Qing Dynasty, it has been China's great enemy. In order to cope with Russia's encroachment, China has done everything in its power. But what is even more terrifying is that Japan has risen again. It can be said that the rise of Japan is definitely a geopolitical disaster for China.
Russia was able to restrain China because Russia had a long land border, and Central Asia, Siberia, and the Outer Northeast were all occupied by Russia. The reason why Japan poses a great threat to China is that Japan has a long coastline.
Chinese often refer to Japan as "Little Japan," but in fact Japan is not small at all. If its land area is placed in Europe, it can definitely be regarded as a large country. Japan's territory is not only relatively large, but also particularly long and narrow, spanning an extremely wide range of more than 3,200 kilometers, which is equivalent to the distance from Guangzhou to Hulunbuir. As a result, China's coastline from north to south is almost entirely covered by Japan.
From the Yuan and Ming dynasties, China began to feel the aggressiveness and threat of Japan. Before the Yuan and Ming dynasties, there was almost no need to send troops to defend China's coastal areas, and it was only necessary to concentrate forces on the northeast and northwest frontiers. In the eyes of the Central Dynasty, Hu Cai was the biggest threat.
But from the Yuan and Ming dynasties, China's coast became no longer safe, because of the appearance of Japanese pirates. From Liaodong to Fujian, there were murderous and arsonist pirates everywhere, and thousands of Chinese people were killed or captured. During the Jiajing period, the Japanese threat was almost equal to that of the Mongol cavalry that had attacked Beijing, and it was known as the "southern Japanese and northern captives".
With the end of Japan's Warring States period and the issuance of the "Lockdown Decree" by the Tokugawa shogunate, Japan's maritime threat to China ceased for the time being.
However, in modern times, after the Meiji Restoration, Japan's threat to China has risen sharply. In particular, the rapid development of the Japanese navy made the huge Qing Dynasty feel terrified.
In 1874, Japan invaded Taiwan and established the so-called "Governor's Palace" there, which shocked the Manchu government and the opposition; In 1879, Japan annexed the Ryukyus, and Japan's maritime control extended several hundred kilometers to the south.
And just like that, the terrible "pincer offensive" specifically against China began. Tsarist Russia "encompasses me on three sides," while Japan tries to encircle the coast of the mainland. Due to the limited fiscal revenue of the Qing Dynasty, a dilemma arose, whether "fortress defense" or "coastal defense" was important. If investment is made in the "blockade defense" of Russia, the "coastal defense" will inevitably be stretched; If attention is paid to Japan's coastal defense, Xinjiang will surely be seized by Russia. With the strength of the Qing Dynasty, "fortress defense" and "coastal defense" cannot be paid equal attention. In the end, Cixi and Zuo Zongtang gambled on "plugging defense" and recaptured Xinjiang under Russia's nose.
However, the recovery of Xinjiang will inevitably lead to damage to coastal defense construction. At the end of the 19th century, it was a period of rapid development of the world's navies, and warships fell behind as soon as they got out of the water. The Japanese navy was originally inferior to the Beiyang Naval Division, but they took advantage of China's financial constraints to expand their warships on a large scale. By the time of the First Sino-Japanese War, the Japanese Navy had caught up with the Beiyang Naval Division. After the outbreak of the First Sino-Japanese War, the Japanese Combined Fleet completely annihilated the Beiyang Naval Division, and China's "coastal defense" completely collapsed from then on.
After defeating the Qing Dynasty, Japan formulated an extremely vicious policy of aggression, the core of which was to completely block China at sea. In the Treaty of Shimonoseki, Japan ceded Taiwan. From Liaodong to Fujian, Japan sealed off almost the entire sea off China.
During the Russo-Japanese War, Japan seized Lushun and Dalian from Russia, and the Bohai Bay, which China believed to be an inland sea, was no longer safe. One year later, Japan annexed Korea, and the entire northern open sea was no longer safe.
Ten years later, in World War I, Japan seized Qingdao from Germany. Japan has reached into Shandong, the heart of China. In World War II, in order to cut off China's foreign aid, Japan occupied all of China's coastal areas
It can be seen from this that the history of Japan's invasion of China is shocking. The reason why Japan has caused so much damage to China is largely because of Japan's unique topography and extremely aggressive national character. Japan's existence is an absolute threat to China's maritime borders. Japan and Russia both struggled and cooperated, while China's border defense took care of one and the other, and eventually fell into a state of poverty and weakness, and almost perished.
After World War II, China's geopolitical situation initially improved. Japan was stripped of its arms, and Taiwan returned to the embrace of the motherland. However, as soon as World War II ended, restrictions on China followed, and the initiator was the United States, which was an ally some time ago.
We must note that the United States' hostility to China is not just because of ideology, but because of ethnicity, culture, and geography. So whatever ideology the Chinese government holds, the U.S. will restrict it.
As early as 1942, the American geographer Speckman pointed out that the United States should unite with Japan. You must know that at that time, the United States and Japan were still engaged in a bloody naval and air duel in the Pacific Ocean. Spickman noted:
"A modern, militarily powerful, and vibrant China is more threatening than Japan. China is a vast country that controls vast expanses of the surrounding seas, and it dominates Asia similar to that of the United States in the Mediterranean of the Americas. When China becomes powerful, its economic penetration of the region will undoubtedly have strong political overtones. It is conceivable that this sea area will no longer be controlled by the sea power of Britain, the United States, and Japan, but by the comrades of China's naval and air forces, and this outcome may not be far off. ”
It can be seen that the Angsa people's fear of the yellow power is deep in the bone marrow. You must know that China at that time was in the most critical period of the Anti-Japanese War. Since then, however, there have been Americans calculating China.
After the end of World War II, the United States could not wait to occupy Japan and exclude Britain, the Soviet Union, and China altogether. What the United States wants is exclusivity, not the partition occupation of Britain, the United States, France, and the Soviet Union like Germany. The reason why the United States monopolized Japan was ostensibly to restrain the Soviet Union, but in fact it was to guard against the rise of China.
George Kennan, a veteran imperialist bureaucrat in the United States, once said that Japan is enough for the United States in the Far East. China's affairs are beyond the reach of the United States. South Korea, on the other hand, is just a small dessert after a big meal in Japan.
In the beginning, the United States only used Japan as a base for the American occupation forces. But after the founding of the People's Republic of China, Japan became a base for the United States to maintain a political and military presence in the Asia-Pacific region.
As a strategic base point, Japan is too much to the appetite of the United States. Japan is neither large nor small, with many natural harbors, which the United States can completely handle and facilitate the stationing of troops; Second, Japan has a strong industry and many skilled workers, which is a good supplement to the US military; In the end, the Japanese were brutal to the weak, but very docile to the strong. When the U.S. troops arrived in Japan, they were greeted with an unimaginable welcome and hospitality. The United States greatly appreciates Japan's behavior of "acquaintance." As a result, Japan went from being a defeated country to becoming the most important ally of the United States.
After the Korean War, the powerful combat effectiveness of Chinese soldiers shocked the United States, and "Sinophobia" began to spread among the US government and the public. At that time, some people in the United States predicted that China would inevitably appear in the world as a "superpower." In order to avoid the United States being pulled down, Japan is too important.
With the support of the United States, Japan's economy and industry have developed dramatically, and in a short period of time it has become the second largest in the world. Japan has also become the most important member of the US "anti-China coalition." What the United States appreciates most is Japan's natural "anti-China" nature.
The United States' anti-China campaign has given Japan the capital to take advantage of the fire. For many Japanese, China is a traditional adversary and a former enemy. China's rise does not benefit Japan in any way, because China may seek revenge against Japan and may take away Japanese orders. By following the United States in opposing China, we will be able to get more investment, aid, and military protection from the United States. For example, during the Korean War, Japan made a lot of war money and accumulated capital for economic revival.
As a result, the United States, with Japan as the starting point, extended its influence to South Korea in the north, Taiwan in the south, and the Philippines, a traditional colony of the United States, to the south. The entire Chinese maritime frontier is under the surveillance of the US military. And this is the origin of the first island chain. Japan is at the heart of the core of the island chain.
In Japan, the U.S. military has a strong military force, with many bases such as Kadena, Yokosuka, Sasebo, and Okinawa. During the Korean War, the U.S. military set out from Japan to intervene in the Korean Civil War; The Seventh Fleet's intervention in the liberation of Taiwan by our troops set sail from Yokosuka.
Therefore, the situation of coastal defense on the mainland is not much better than that of the Qing Dynasty, from Liaoning to Hainan, there are forces of the US military everywhere. In the event of wartime, maritime trade and transportation on the mainland would be severely affected.
Not only that, but the United States also defended the world's condemnation by arming Japan, which was a defeated country. Today, Japan's Naval and Air Self-Defense Forces have the world's leading military capabilities.
The Air Force of Japan has 200 F-15J heavy fighters, 93 F-2 light fighters, 27 F-35A stealth fighters, 17 AWACS aircraft, 38 transport aircraft and 8 tanker aircraft. Haizi has 2 Izumo-class light aircraft carriers, 2 Hyuga-class helicopter carriers, 3 Osumi-class amphibious transport ships, 8 Aegis destroyers, 28 general-purpose destroyers, 6 escort destroyers, 4 heavy frigates and 22 submarines.
In wartime, Japan's Self-Defense Forces will completely obey the orders of the U.S. military. The U.S. military pointed to the east, and the Japanese army did not dare to go west. When the United States declares that it wants to interfere in the Taiwan Strait, Japan will threaten: "If there is something wrong with Taiwan, it means that there is something wrong with Japan." "The United States has organized many military exercises related to the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, and the Japanese Self-Defense Forces have always done their best to participate.
In short, the United States has three trump cards in the world, Japan, Britain and Israel. Japan is responsible for constraining the Asia-Pacific, Britain is constraining Europe, and Israel is constraining the Middle East. Among the three trump cards, Japan is undoubtedly the biggest.
Among the three countries, Japan has the largest territory and sea area, the largest population, the strongest economic strength, the strongest industry, the strongest military strength, and the most "docile and obedient" national character. After the United States proposed to return to the Asia-Pacific region and regard China as its biggest competitor, Japan became the most important ally and strategic partner of the United States.
If China and the United States clash in the Taiwan Strait, Japan will inevitably help the United States. If China succeeds in reunifying Taiwan, the threat from the mainland from the sea will not be lifted. Because the liberation of Taiwan only opens a gap in the first island chain, but it cannot destroy the US military system in the Asia-Pacific region. Japan is still straddling China's eastern maritime frontier, and the US and Japanese militaries will still be eyeing the mainland, and will still pose a serious threat to the mainland's coastal defense and maritime trade.
Therefore, the battle in the Taiwan Strait is by no means the final battle between China and the United States. As the saying goes, "it is advisable to chase the poor bravely", it is necessary to plow the court and sweep the hole, and this "hole" is Japan. Only when the United States withdraws from Japan can China achieve real security; Only when the United States withdraws from Japan can East Asians truly unite and realize the China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Area; Only when the United States withdraws from Japan can the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation be realized one day earlier.