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introduction
In the face of the arrogant "Lai Qingde", the Chinese People's Liberation Army held a military exercise codenamed "United Sword-2024A" last month.
According to the map released by the Eastern Theater of Operations, during this exercise, the Chinese People's Liberation Army showed the trend of "rounding the island" exercise, and the network of fighters and missile firepower deployed along the Taiwan Strait and the Bass Strait has heavily surrounded the island of Taiwan.
The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has taken concrete actions to warn the "Lai Qingde" on the island of Taiwan that the result of resisting reunification by force is only a dead end. Under the circumstance that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is able to completely blockade the island of Taiwan, it is even more a fantasy for the "Lai Qingde" to want to get away with it.
But what is intriguing is that while the Chinese People's Liberation Army is carrying out military exercises, the Japanese Air Force put the Patriot-3 air defense missile system on alert!
What signal does Japan's move send to the outside world?
American Airlines withdraws from Japan? What exactly is the intention?
The "Lai Qingde", who once hugged the thigh of the United States, may be disappointed in the United States after the "Joint Sword-2024A" is held.
During the military exercises of the Chinese People's Liberation Army, the two US aircraft carriers that were once active in the western Pacific did not appear near the Taiwan Strait.
Among them, the aircraft carrier "Reagan," which is stationed in Japan, "coincidentally" went to the Philippine Sea for replenishment on the day of the "Joint Sword" military exercise. The other aircraft carrier, the USS Roosevelt, has been stationed in Singapore and has no plans to approach the Taiwan Strait.
The "quiet" attitude of the US military in this PLA exercise is almost like the scene when they faced each other in the Taiwan Strait in 1996. This cannot but make people sincerely sigh that in 28 years, the Chinese People's Liberation Army has changed from what it used to be.
What is surprising, however, is that while the US military is avoiding Taiwan, Japan's Self-Defense Forces have been particularly active during the PLA's exercises against Taiwan.
According to a report by Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun, Japan's Ground Self-Defense Forces, which were deployed in Okinawa, Naguni, and Ishigaki, were on alert during the PLA's military exercises around Taiwan.
Japan's Air Self-Defense Force, on the other hand, activated the Patriot-3 anti-missile system imported from the United States and erected missile launchers.
As early as the beginning of May this year, Japan's Air Self-Defense Force launched the Patriot-3 in Okinawa, and there are as many as 400 members of the Japanese Self-Defense Force in cooperation with the Patriot-3.
In addition, Japan also dispatched air transport planes, sea ships, and a number of civilian ships.
Hirokazu Matsuno, a member of the Japanese House of Representatives, said that Japan's deployment of the Patriot-3 missile system on Naguni Island, Ishigaki Island, Miyako Island, and other places is to deal with the DPRK's recent frequent satellite launches, and the purpose of the Patriot-3 missile system is to protect the safety of Japan's airspace.
The Japan Air Self-Defense Force deploys the Patriot-3 islands of Naguni, Ishigaki and Miyako, which are 2,000 kilometers away from North Korea but less than 250 kilometers from the island of Taiwan.
Therefore, many people can see the real intention of Japan's deployment of the Patriot-3 anti-missile system - nominally to guard against North Korea, but in fact to target China.
VOA and other US media reported that Japan's Self-Defense Forces' intention to "cover their ears and steal the bell" is clumsy and obvious, and that Japan's Self-Defense Forces' deployment is actually aimed at guarding the choke point of the first island chain, and that Miyaya Island and other places are closer to Taiwan than North Korea, and that once a situation occurs in the Taiwan Strait, Japan can use Miyaya Island as a "bridgehead" to interfere in the Taiwan Strait.
Today, Japan wants to intervene in the Taiwan Strait, but it is also worried that its blatant measures involving Taiwan will arouse the anger of the Chinese people, so it plays the pretext of "guarding its northern neighbor." Such a twisted and cowering attitude is precisely a manifestation of Japan's lack of confidence in its own military strength.
There is something wrong in Taiwan, but it is not popular in Japan
Compared with the United States, Japan's top leaders have shown in recent years that they have paid close attention to the Taiwan Strait issue because of the tone of "Taiwan incident."
In 2021, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe proposed: "If there is something wrong with Taiwan, there is something wrong with Japan." Shinzo Abe's remarks are intended to emphasize the so-called "security integration of Japan, the United States and Taiwan", trying to use the first island chain to contain China's rise, and even do not hesitate to interfere in China's reunification cause.
Shinzo Abe's remarks immediately triggered a strong protest from the mainland's foreign affairs departments: Abe's so-called "security integration between Japan, the United States, and Taiwan" is not only interference in China's internal affairs, but also advocates the formation of a NATO-style military alliance in Asia, which is not conducive to peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region.
In the face of China's repeated warnings, Japan's top leaders still did not make any changes in their follow-up diplomatic statements. Japan's Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Taro Aso said that "Taiwan is an existential issue for Japan."
Japan has long been concerned about its international oil shipping routes. Japan is worried that once the PLA blocks the Bass Strait in the future, it will be difficult for Japan's domestic oil shipping to maintain, and in the "Joint Sword-2024A" military exercise, the PLA has proved that it does have the hard power to blockade the Bass Strait.
However, if Japan does not "act like a thief" because of the historical issue of invading China and the Taiwan-related issue, how can it worry about the PLA's military action in the Bass Strait, or even just a drill, and already tremble?
Although the "theory of Taiwan affairs" that is popular among the Japanese top level is very popular, the tone of the theory of "Taiwan has an incident" among the Japanese people has been very unpopular since it was put forward.
Japan's economic media "Toyo Keizai" said that the "theory that there is something wrong with Taiwan" is Japan's wishful thinking, and for Japan, this kind of argument can be described as doing more harm than benefiting anything.
"Oriental Economy" pointed out that in the economic field, Chinese mainland and Taiwan are close to reunification. At present, Taiwan is deeply dependent on the Chinese mainland economy, with 28.2% of Taiwan's exports going to Chinese mainland and 14.1% to Hong Kong in 2021 alone.
Together, they account for 40% of Taiwan's exports, and neither Japan nor the United States can change the status quo of cross-strait trade in the short term, nor can they replace Chinese mainland's position in the Taiwan market.
As far as Taiwan is concerned, if it insists on going its own way on the road of "resisting independence by force", it will mean complete decoupling from the economy of Chinese mainland, which is a price that Taiwan cannot afford at present.
Japanese Patriot-3 anti-missile system, how China responded
Japan's Self-Defense Forces believe that the Patriot-3 anti-missile system can achieve "saturation" interception of PLA air forces near the Taiwan Strait, so that the first island chain can continue to maintain its role in containing China during the Cold War.
As early as 2019, when Saudi Arabia introduced the Patriot-3 anti-missile system from the United States in response to an attack by the Houthis, the performance of the Patriot-3 anti-missile system was lackluster. And in response to an attack by Iranian drones, the Patriot-3 is also very ineffective in interception.
Teng Jianqun, a scholar at the China Institute of International Studies, pointed out that the Patriot-3 has been slow to update and iterate in recent years, and once the central system is faced with large-scale decentralized attacks, interception often fails, and now it has become the modern version of the "Maginot Line" in the United States.
In the face of Iran and Houthi drones, being able to intercept China's Dongfeng series missiles is probably a luxury for the Patriot-3.
epilogue
However, in order to prevent accidents, strengthening anti-access capabilities at sea is still the future development direction of the Chinese People's Liberation Army's naval and air forces.
The Chinese People's Liberation Army will use its strength to prove that there is no force that can shake the determination of hundreds of millions of Chinese people to reunify the country!
Bibliography:
[1] Ministry of National Defense of the People's Republic of China: The Eastern Theater released a schematic map of the "Joint Sword-2024A" exercise area
[2] CCTV News: Will there be "B" and "C" after the "Joint Sword-2024A" exercise? The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council responded
[3] Toyo Economy: Is it possible to avoid an emergency in Taiwan?