Now the cars on the street are like the clothes that people wear after the reform and opening up, which can be described as varied.
Traditional oil vehicles still occupy the mainstream position, but new energy vehicles have sprung up in recent years, and sales have increased significantly.
New energy vehicles are a general term, and there is a difference between plug-in and extended range under it, and there is the so-called all-electric vehicle and gasoline-electric hybrid dual-drive version.
In fact, we laymen look at these oil truck areas are not much different, because whether it is a plug-in or extended range electric vehicle, as long as the power is not enough, they will choose to burn oil to store energy.
However, the plug-in drive method is that the engine drives the vehicle and charges the electric motor after the power is exhausted.
The range extender is a simple way to run the engine by burning oil to charge the electric motor, and then push the car forward through electricity.
In the past, when there were only traditional gasoline vehicles, people would choose a car with lower fuel consumption within the preferred price range.
Everyone pays attention to practicality, unless you particularly need a vehicle with large horsepower and no fuel consumption, generally everyone chooses cost-effective.
Now the status of traditional oil vehicles is facing a huge challenge, because new energy vehicles have reduced the fuel consumption of 100 kilometers by virtue of the gradually mature lithium battery technology and cheap electricity.
So now people's choices are more diversified, new energy vehicles and oil vehicles make people hesitate.
So the question is: when the price of electricity rises, the advantage of low power consumption of the tram will be lost? Let's find out.
1. China's power supply and the development of new energy vehicles
China's power generation has always been the largest in the world. Because of China's huge industrial system and huge electricity population, the mainland's power generation has to maintain a high level, but our power generation model is also adapting to the new situation and constantly changing.
In 2023, the mainland will continue to rank first in the world in terms of power generation with 9,138.6 billion kWh, followed by the United States with 4,547.7 billion kWh, India with 1,858 billion kWh, Russia with 1,166.9 billion kWh, and Japan with 136.6 million kWh.
Of course, there are also many foreigners who take China's power generation, saying that the huge thermal power generation of Chinese here pollutes the environment and wastes resources.
In the early days, most of us relied on thermal power to generate electricity, but now the situation is different.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2023, the mainland will generate 626.5 billion kWh of thermal power, 1,285.9 billion kWh of hydropower, 885.9 billion kWh of wind power, 584.2 billion kWh of solar power, and 43.7 billion kWh of nuclear power.
Although thermal power is still the main power generation, the share of thermal power in the mainland's total power generation has been slowly declining.
Hydropower and wind power are progressing at a particularly rapid pace, and in 2022 we started construction of 40 new storage hydropower plants.
Whether it is the construction of new wind power installations or storage hydropower stations, they will help the mainland's power generation layout change in the future and help the mainland's clean energy development.
Let's talk about new energy vehicles, which are closely related to electricity.
The development of new energy vehicles can be described as the general trend, which is the result of the combined effect of the general trend of world energy development, the general trend of world resource development and the general trend of scientific and technological development.
Of course, protecting the ecological environment and gradually replacing petrol cars with electric cars is also the direction, and this process will definitely be long and long-lasting.
Take the developed capitalist countries of Europe as an example, Norway, Finland and other countries will only start to completely ban the sale of oil vehicles around 2035 at the earliest, and the service life of a gas truck will be calculated in 20 years, that is, the oil vehicles in these two countries may disappear completely around 2050.
This is still the most optimistic plan, because Norway and other countries, as one of the most developed countries in the world and one of the countries with the highest per capita GDP, will make it easier for them to achieve this goal of switching from oil to electricity than other countries.
However, when we consider the conversion of oil to electricity, most people in most African countries have not even realized what oil trucks are like, and this disconnection between the development of the North and the South will more or less affect the pace of oil to electricity in the future.
Of course, the development prospects of new energy vehicles are still very optimistic, thanks to the more and more perfect battery technology and on-board intelligent equipment.
The most important thing is that the price of electricity will not rise in the short term, which is really a drop in the bucket for oil prices.
Traditional oil trucks are first-class in terms of operability and driving experience, and many old drivers say that oil trucks feel more like cars.
This is also the reason why many people hover between petrol cars and trams when buying a car: the driving experience.
But today we don't talk about the driving experience, just from the perspective of data, it is more appropriate before the price of electricity rises, of course, this is not too strong universal applicability, you are just for reference.
Second, how much will the price of electricity rise, and the advantage of trams will be gone?
Everyone wanders between petrol cars and trams on weekdays, just because of the cost performance and driving experience. Especially during this period, international oil prices are fluctuating, and domestic oil prices are also up and down.
The world's major oil exporters are themselves at risk of hot war, as well as the associated freighters sailing in the Red Sea.
Although all this is due to Israel's inhumane behavior in Gaza, it has also objectively affected international oil prices.
In addition, although the current new energy vehicles do not have as much subsidy benefits as in the past, with the continuous iterative upgrading of battery technology and the continuous improvement of new energy vehicle related supporting equipment, some of his past shortcomings have also been gradually improved.
However, the dominance and advantages of traditional gasoline vehicles are still there, and the main body of China's automobile production and sales in 2023 will still be gasoline vehicles.
The sales of electric cars are also gradually increasing because of the advantage of high cost performance, but when the price rises to a certain amount, sometimes it disappears?
This is because the price of electricity and oil varies from region to region, and the price of gasoline and tram cars varies widely.
Let's take an example this time to compare gasoline cars and electric cars in a certain area and a certain price range to see the so-called cost performance problem.
Let's take Shaanxi Province as an example. According to public data, the new refined oil price in Shaanxi Province is 7.73 for No. 92 gasoline and 8.17 for No. 95 gasoline.
So let's take Volkswagen Magotan as an example to see how good the fuel consumption of Magotan is worth 100 kilometers. The official price of Magotan is between 170,000 and 310,000, and there may be differences but not much difference.
According to the data of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Volkswagen Magotan is a B-class sedan, and its fuel consumption per 100 kilometers is about 5.5L-6.7L according to different road conditions and driving habits, so we will obtain the median value of fuel consumption and oil price for calculation.
Why take the median value? Because although Magotan can also add 92 gasoline, it is recommended to add 95.
However, it is recommended that there are not a few people who add No. 92, so we take 8 yuan between 7.73 and 8.17 for oil prices.
The same is true for fuel consumption per 100 kilometers, because the median is more convincing. Between 5.5 and 6.7, we take a median of 6, which is relatively easy to calculate. Therefore, the fuel consumption price of Magotan per 100 kilometers is 6*8, that is, 48 yuan.
Tram: Let's take the Xiaomi SU7, which was in the limelight during this time, as an example. The official price of Xiaomi cars is between 210,000-300,000, and the price range is about the same as that of Magotan, so what needs to be considered in the charging of new energy vehicles is nothing more than power consumption and electricity prices.
According to the guidance of the State Council: with the increase of electricity pressure, the price rise range in various regions is set to be between 10% and 20%, and the electricity consumption of the national economy and people's livelihood should be considered more deeply, but the price of electricity in high energy-consuming industries is not limited to 20%.
On December 1, 2023, the Shaanxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission, in accordance with the instructions of the State Council, stipulated that the electricity charges of all cities and counties in Shaanxi Province will be charged by flying sections, with 0.56 yuan per kilowatt-hour during peak periods and 0.31 yuan per kilowatt-hour during other periods.
So according to the performance of the Xiaomi tram tested by Mr. Lei, the power consumption of Xiaomi per 100 kilometers is about 15 degrees. Therefore, the theoretical electricity price of 100 kilometers of Xiaomi tram is 15 * 0.4 (take the median value) is 6 yuan, and I see that there are audiences here, is there so much difference between the price of this tram and oil car per 100 kilometers?
In fact, this is an ideal state, and the real situation will not be 48 yuan for 100 kilometers of oil vehicles and 6 yuan for 100 kilometers of trams.
According to relevant statistics, fuel vehicles consume 40-75 yuan per 100 kilometers according to fuel consumption, and new energy vehicles consume 17-27 yuan per 100 kilometers according to motor power and energy efficiency.
As for how the 6 yuan of the Xiaomi tram came from for 100 kilometers, one is the data tested at the professional test site, and the other is the family electricity price, which is very low.
Under normal circumstances, the price of outdoor new energy vehicle charging piles is 1 yuan per kilowatt-hour or even higher.
Therefore, compared with the 40-75 per 100 kilometers of the oil car and the 17-27 of the 100 kilometers of the tram, we know that if the electricity price exceeds the current 2.5 times, then the power consumption advantage of the tram is basically the same as that of the oil car.
3. Tram or oil car, the one that suits us is the best
In fact, whether it is a fuel car or a tram, it is a means of transportation, and the one that suits us is the best. The conclusion drawn above is that when the price of electricity is increased by 2.5 times, the advantage of the train will be lost, and in fact, it is not possible to increase the price of electricity so much.
Therefore, when we choose to buy a car, we should start from the actual use and buy the right one for ourselves. If you often run long distances, then the petrol truck is undoubtedly a better choice, not to mention the gas stations that can be found everywhere, even the electric car is the power you have to keep an eye on.
In case people are left in the middle of the road, there is no store in front of the village, but it is not possible to solve it with a little fuel, of course, now electric charging piles are also being built in major service areas, but this also requires a process.
It is much better to use the tram for a short distance, and the energy-saving, environmentally friendly, and economical characteristics of the tram can be well brought into play.
Especially when there is a traffic jam in the city, the consumption of the tram is smaller.
Finally, it is necessary to divide the topography, road conditions and infrastructure construction of the city, if you encounter tram-related infrastructure is not sound, it is better to choose oil vehicles, so as not to bring unnecessary trouble in the future.
epilogue
The above information is more cumbersome to say, and the data is not necessarily particularly accurate, just for your reference.
There are some discrepancies between the real situation and the theoretical data, but the fuel consumption and electricity consumption per 100 kilometers are probably so different.
Now look at the cars running on the market and the labels we introduced at the beginning, you can imagine how rich the types of cars are on the market now.
But in the end, these cars are commodities, and commodities need to be bought by people, and they must have corresponding value.
And as long as the goods are mentioned, they are inseparable from three words: cost performance.
This is especially true in the world of car buying, and it can be said that the more expensive the car/merchandise, the more people will shop around, after all, this is not a small amount.
So, it's best to choose the one that's right for you.
Resources:
1. https://news.cctv.com/2021/10/09/ARTI4aTeYoUUfTRi6znf169f211009.shtml (China News: EV Charging)