Judging from the latest opinion poll results, Australia's attitude towards China can be described as contradictory and complex. On the one hand, they still want to benefit from their economic and trade relations with China and continue to benefit from business ties. But on the other hand, due to the long-term threat of the Western bloc to China, the Australian people are still wary of China.
The formation of this ambivalence is inseparable from the ups and downs of China-Australia relations in recent years. Since 2020, at the instigation of the Biden administration in the United States, Australia and the United States and the United Kingdom have established the "Aukus" trilateral security partnership, which has hyped up China's "threat theory" and frequently "forced the palace" on sensitive issues with China, causing relations between the two countries to fall into a trough. In retaliation, China launched an anti-dumping investigation and imposed high tariffs on Australian coal, barley, wine and other goods, causing heavy damage to the Australian economy. Although China gradually lifted punitive tariffs on Australian products in 2023 and the leaders of the two countries resumed high-level dialogue, many Australians believe that the shadow of the previous discord between China and Australia has not dissipated.
Ore cargo ship departing from Australia bound for China
Australia is also concerned about its own awkward position in the US-China game. A growing number of Australians believe that the United States will force Australia to choose between a close relationship with China and the United States, but there is a clear divergence in the views of the Australian public on whether the United States or China will force Australia to "choose sides": 52 percent believe that this choice will be imposed by China, while 47 percent point to the United States. If Trump returns to the White House next year, two-thirds (67 percent) of Australians believe it will be more difficult for the government to balance its relationship with China and the United States.
Fears of a military conflict with China are also deeply entrenched in Australia. Half of those surveyed believe that a conflict with China is a "serious possibility" in the next three years. This view is unlikely to dissipate for some time to come.
The essential reason for this concern is that the Western countries led by the United States have repeatedly created the "China threat theory", which has caused the people of Western countries to seriously misjudge and misunderstand China.
While a third of Australians believe bilateral relations are likely to improve in the coming years, Australians overall remain cautious about developing a relationship with China. While they are happy to benefit from economic relations and nurture business ties, even confidence in these areas is waning. Nearly three-quarters of respondents believe Australia is overly reliant on the Chinese economy, and the link between the China-Australia relationship and Australia's economic prosperity is showing some signs of weakness. Fifty-four per cent of Australians said Australia would not be as prosperous as it is this year without close economic ties with China, down from a high of 63 per cent in 2021.
Hundreds of thousands of electric vehicles are imported into Australia from China each year, outpacing previous demand for locally produced Ford and Holden vehicles. According to Tony Webb, CEO of the Australian Chamber of Motor Industries, China has become the third largest source of car sales in Australia. In an interview with Chris Kohler, financial editor of Australia's 9News, Webb said: "So far in 2024, more than 80% of all electric vehicles sold in Australia are made in China. This is good for Australian consumers as it provides more choice to the market and also puts downward pressure on prices as competition intensifies. Webb argues that because the Australian market is "very open" and there are few tariff and non-tariff barriers, Australians can buy cars at a lower price than in other countries. "As a result, Australian consumers are getting the highest quality products from all over the globe at the most affordable prices," Webb said.
Chinese-made Teslas are also sold to Australia
From the above analysis, it can be seen that Australia's relations with China are in a delicate and sensitive period. On the one hand, in the economic and trade fields, China-Australia relations are showing signs of recovery. China's gradual lifting of restrictions on Australian products and the resumption of high-level dialogue between the two countries have led to positive changes in the economic ties between the two sides. At the same time, a large number of Chinese-made electric vehicles have poured into Australia, which not only brings benefits to local consumers, but also injects new vitality into China-Australia economic and trade cooperation. These phenomena show that the importance of the Chinese market to the Australian economy has not changed despite diplomatic relations hitting rock bottom. Australia's enormous benefits from China's economic rise have made many Australians reluctant to give up doing business with China.
On the other hand, in the geopolitical and security spheres, China-Australia relations have become more complex and volatile due to the US factor. In particular, under the AUKUS framework, Australia has strengthened military cooperation with the United States and the United Kingdom, and vigorously developed nuclear submarines and other sophisticated weapons, which has aroused strong dissatisfaction and vigilance on the Chinese side. On issues such as Taiwan and the South China Sea, Australia has repeatedly created incidents and challenged China's core interests in order to cater to the US strategy toward China, seriously undermining the political mutual trust between the two countries. Even in the economic and trade field, the Australian side is wary of Chinese investment and mergers and acquisitions in Australia, and is also suspicious of China's large-scale entry into electric vehicles. It can be seen that the interweaving of economic interests and security concerns has made Australia's mentality towards China full of contradictions.