In the first week after the 5.17 blockbuster new deal, there were two news in the property market: a good one and a bad one

Lao Yang chatted about the room

2024-05-27 18:42Posted in Jiangxi Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, vice president of the real estate field creator

Good Monday, everyone, happy work, work hard and make money.

It's time to share the weekly report on Monday, and the "Typical Urban Residential Transaction Weekly" is served.

Last week was May 20-26, which was also the first full week after the introduction of the 5.17 New Deal.

The 5.17 New Deal can be said to have pulled out several heavy weapons.

And in the next 10 days, there were news reports every day, and the market response seemed to be quite good, and individual cities such as Shenzhen and Hangzhou felt a little hot in the media.

Then, the real performance of the market ultimately depends on the transaction volume of real estate.

In the 21st week (last week), compared with the 20th week, the number of online signatures for new houses in 17 cities decreased by 3%, and the number of online signatures for second-hand houses in 18 cities was flat.

Obviously, in the first full week after the 5.17 New Deal, the sentiment improved slightly, but the transaction was still unable to attack and maintained a consolidation trend.

Among them, it may include part of the lower quantity and the trading volume has not yet been passed on to the online signing volume.

However, considering that the tone of the 4.30 high-level meeting has been set and the foreplay for the 5.17 New Deal has been done, the number of online signatures last week is still defined as: weak.

Pour ice on boiling oil and melt only one layer.

This should be bad news.

But don't worry,

There is also good news.

Take a closer look at the figure below.

The total number of first-hand and second-hand housing transactions in 14 cities increased slightly in the 21st week (last week) compared with the 20th week.

Although it was down 18% year-on-year;

But the decline is slowly narrowing!

Let's do a more detailed comparison.

This year's May Day 3 weeks after the basic stable, and in early April last year after the peak continued to decline, after May Day fell for 6 consecutive weeks, July to August to reach the bottom.

This also means that the weekly fluctuation of housing transaction volume this year is much smaller than last year; Xiaoyangchun is weaker than last year, but Xiaoyangchun will not be in an uproar after Xiaoyangchun, especially with the help of the new deal in May, the amount can stabilize for a while.

Lao Yang estimates that the transaction volume of primary and second-hand houses in 14 cities will turn to positive year-on-year growth from the end of June; Among them, second-hand housing will turn to positive year-on-year growth earlier.

That's good news. A touch of warm sunshine in the harsh winter.

Next, observe a few more cities.

Shanghai    

In the 21st week of this year, the total number of first-hand and second-hand housing transactions increased slightly compared with last week.

However, it is still slightly below the boom and bust line (the rightmost gray column).

Overall, the transaction is slightly weaker.

Restrictions are expected to ease further in the coming weeks.

It is expected that the transaction volume in May will decrease by 5% compared with April.

Suzhou

In the 21st week of this year, the total number of transactions of primary and second-hand houses decreased slightly compared with last week, and has been weak in recent weeks.

What's more, it is significantly lower than the boom and bust line (the rightmost gray column).

Overall, the transaction is weak.

Poor Su Heaven is far inferior to Hang Heaven.

It is expected that the transaction volume in May will drop by two percent compared with April.

Qingdao    

In the 21st week of this year, the total number of first-hand and second-hand housing transactions decreased slightly compared with last week.

Below the line (rightmost gray column).

Overall, the transaction is slightly weaker.

It is expected that the transaction volume in May will drop by one percent compared with April.

Shenzhen

Recently, Shenzhen's property market is the most lively.

Yesterday, I chatted with friends from Shenzhen real estate companies, and the number of their real estate projects has indeed increased significantly, but the transaction volume has only increased slightly.

The key is that even if the sales improve, their company (private enterprises) do not dare to raise prices at all, and just want to take this opportunity to dump the goods and return some funds to save their lives.

From the official website of Shenzhen, I pulled a trend of the daily online signing volume of new residential buildings for nearly three months.

In the past eight weeks, it has shown a volatile downward trend.

In this context, which real estate company will have the courage to increase the price?

Let's take a look at the number of second-hand housing online signatures.

Last week, the number of second-hand housing online signatures fell month-on-month!

This is the second consecutive week of decline.

And it continues to be below the line of the Glory and Withering (the rightmost gray column).

Old irons from all over the world, let's talk about the performance of the property market in your city after the introduction of the 5.17 New Deal.

Welcome to leave a message in the comment area......

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