When involution becomes the norm, there is only one way in front of catering people: to stay up.
This article was originally published by Red Meal Network (ID: hongcan18), author: He Peiling; Editor: Wang Xiuqing.
There is an old saying in the catering industry called "the gods are sad in March and April", March and April are the traditional off-season, but this year's March and April seem to be more difficult, coupled with the traditional peak season of the "May Day" holiday "not prosperous", many restaurants have experienced a decline in revenue, and some restaurants who can't hold on can only close their stores and leave.
The off-season is lighter, and the peak season is not prosperous
After the "May Day", the catering business fell off a cliff
No more of the peak season for food and beverage consumption this year?
Recently, the south ushered in heavy rainfall, and many restaurant owners have complained that "dragon boat water, no operation (Cantonese colloquialism, meaning: rain for days, the market is very poor)".
From mid-May to mid-June every year is the rainy season in the south, and the catering consumption is cold, but this year, many catering people feel that there is a significant difference from previous years, from late April to the "May Day" holiday are raining, and the business has been affected a lot.
For many F&B people, the May Day holiday is one of the few peak seasons of the year. Jiang Yi, the founder of Giant Prawns, revealed to the Red Food Network that in March and April, many peers poured bitter water on him, saying that the turnover continued to decline, and everyone was looking forward to the "May Day" recovery. However, this year's "May Day" has disappointed many catering people. Even in the north, which has not been affected by the rainy weather, business has not improved much.
In fact, this bleak situation during the "May Day" period may only be a microcosm of the catering industry this year. Some restaurant owners don't even have expectations for the next half of the year, "there is no off-season this year, because the whole year will be off-season".
△ Image source: Photo by Red Meal Network
1. The gods are sad in March and April, and May is not easy to do
"The performance in March-April this year was one-third less than last year." Liu Jun (pseudonym), who runs a noodle snack bar on the outskirts of Beijing, told Red Restaurant that his shop is about 50 square meters and has an annual rent of 120,000 yuan. The income in March last year was about 170,000 yuan, and in March this year it was only more than 110,000 yuan, and it rebounded in April, reaching about 130,000 yuan, but it was also more than 50,000 yuan less than the same period last year.
The business in the store is not good, Liu Jun originally hired 2 clerks, but this year he changed to hourly workers, and when there are not many people, he and his wife take care of them, which can save some labor costs.
Shen Xin (pseudonym), who runs a wonton shop, also said that before April this year, the daily turnover was about 1,000 yuan, but in April, the business began to deteriorate inexplicably, with a daily turnover of only about 600 yuan. Liu Yongqiang (pseudonym), who runs a bakery, said bluntly, "April's performance was cut in half." ”
finally survived March and April, and originally expected that "May Day" would be a big hit, but many catering people were disappointed.
Xiaoyou (pseudonym) opened a bubble tea shop in Foshan in October last year, did not join, mainly doing business in the surrounding communities, according to the store turnover she posted on Xiaohongshu, this year's "May Day" business fell off a cliff.
According to rough statistics, the peak of Xiaoyou's bubble tea shop business occurred on April 29 and April 30, with an income of 2,996.67 yuan and 3,496.38 yuan respectively. Subsequently, on May 1, the revenue suddenly fell sharply to 2156.25 yuan, and a total of 114 orders were sold, which is only roughly equivalent to its revenue on weekdays. From May 2nd to May 5th, the turnover remained around 2,000 yuan.
After May Day, Xiaoyou described her store as "very quiet", and its turnover fell off a cliff, with a turnover of only 1,478.31 yuan on May 9, worse than the turnover of 1,680.39 yuan on the day of heavy rain on April 7.
He Le (pseudonym), who runs a fast-food restaurant, revealed on social media that the daily turnover has been less than 1,500 yuan recently, only half of the same period last year, "all saying that business is not good, and customers are like evaporating from the world."
2. More restaurants fell from January to April than in the same period last year
When a group of catering people are still struggling to support, there are still a group of catering people who can't hold on to choose to close their stores and leave, and some popular business districts are also facing a decline in customer flow and a difficult sublease of shops.
From the perspective of big data, compared with last year, from January to May this year, there were fewer new catering companies, but more fell.
According to the data of enterprise checking, from January 1 to May 16 this year, the number of catering enterprises in the country was 723,000, and the data from January to May last year was 677,000, which is equivalent to just over half of May this year, and 46,000 more catering enterprises fell than last year.
Specifically, the number of restaurant enterprises that fell in January, March and April this year was higher than that of the same period last year, among them, the closure in January was the most serious, and the number of enterprises in the country was 172,800, an increase of 211.6% year-on-year.
In other words, the number of restaurant companies that fell in January this year was more than twice that of the same period last year! You must know that in January last year, the national catering market had just begun to recover.
Compared with last year, the number of new catering players entering the game this year has decreased significantly. According to the data of enterprise inspection, from January to April this year, the number of new restaurant enterprises in January alone was more than last year, and there was a year-on-year decline from February to April.
As of May 16 this year, the number of new restaurant enterprises in the country was 970,000, compared with 1.397 million from January to May last year, a difference of 427,000.
Transmitted offline, shops in some popular business districts have also fallen into the situation of difficulty in subletting.
For example, in Xi'an, Zou Tong, a columnist for Red Food, said that when he inspected the market in March and April this year, he found that many shops in popular business districts such as Xi'an Northeast Street, Dahua 1935 Shopping Mall, and Tangyan Central City were empty.
In April this year, an advertisement for the transfer of a Biáng Biáng noodle shop at the subway entrance of Dongdajie had been plastered on the door of a Biáng Biáng noodle shop on the East Avenue subway entrance, and according to the traces of paper on the door, similar advertisements should have been posted several times, but still no one took over. The owner of a nearby shop said, "This shop has been closed for a long time." At the corner of the street not far from this store, there are also 3 stores for rent, but the renovation has been removed and it is in a state of empty rental.
△ Image source: Photo by Red Meal Network
Xi'an Tangyan Central City used to be a popular location for catering businesses to scramble, but in recent years, the popularity of the mall has gradually cooled, now, many restaurants and clothing in the mall have closed or withdrawn, most of the stores are fenced or closed or transferred, there are still some chain brands left in the field such as Weijia Liangpi, Silly Risk, Burger King, etc., the popularity of the store is also relatively bleak.
Zhai Bin, a columnist for Beijing's Red Dining Network, said that since the beginning of this year, the core points at several entrances of some popular shopping malls in Beijing have been vacant for more than three months, a phenomenon that is not common even during the epidemic.
3. High-end, fine dining restaurants and chain brands can't hold up
Even if it is a chain brand, life is not necessarily easy. Looking back on the first four months of this year, many catering brands have "fallen", including many well-known brands.
For example, the star brand Panda, which once earned 800 million yuan a year, did not leave, but suddenly collapsed this year, and a large number of employees asked for wages on social media; Fu Xiaotao, who once opened more than 200 stores across the country, closed stores on a large scale this year, and the total number of stores has been less than 30; Jiumaojiu and Nai Xue respectively "cut" their sub-brands Uncle Nawei is chef and table cover......
At the same time, many high-end restaurants have also closed their stores this year. For example, Opera BOMBANA, known as the "ceiling of Italian restaurants in Beijing" and once won a Michelin star, announced its closure in April; Osteria, which has been operating in Shanghai for 15 years, is also scheduled to officially close on May 30; Some industry insiders broke the news to Red Restaurant Network that a high-end restaurant on the Bund in Shanghai, which opened at the end of last year, also officially closed in April, surviving for less than half a year......
A number of brands positioned as exquisite restaurants have also suffered setbacks one after another, such as Taoyuan Military Village, which is known as the "Hermes of the breakfast world" with 16 rounds of turnover in one day, and now only has 4 stores left; With a history of more than 50 years and more than 300 stores in the United States, the "Hermes of the Burger World" Habitt Burger has only one store left in China......
Whether it is a small restaurant or a chain brand, one of the major feelings of catering people this year is that the market is cold, and opening a restaurant is more volatile and tiring. Many catering people bluntly said that this year's catering off-season is lighter, and the peak season is not as prosperous as in previous years.
"Doing catering this year, no loss is equal to success." Catering second-hand equipment recycler "Brother Dog" said in its short video account that for the first time in 6 years, he has seen such an involution situation this year, and no loss is equal to success, and a small profit is worth setting off firecrackers to celebrate.
Polarization of the catering industry,
Ordinary caterers can only "boil" and wait for the opportunity
Why do so many F&B people feel that business is harder to do this year than before? The main reasons for this phenomenon are changes in consumption habits and intensifying market competition.
From the perspective of consumption, with the weakening of the social wealth effect, many enterprises have laid off employees and cut wages, people's desire to consume has been suppressed to a certain extent, and the willingness to resist unknown risks through savings has increased. At the same time, people's consumption habits have also changed, in the past, people tended to pursue the added value of consumption, such as the tall environment, etc., and today's consumers pay more attention to the essence of catering consumption - products and prices, requiring products to be cost-effective, delicious and inexpensive.
"At present, consumption upgrading and consumption downgrading coexist, which is mainly manifested in the upgrading of demand, rather than the upgrading of budget." For example, Guan Qingyou, president of the Institute of Financial Research and vice president of the China Private Economy Research Association, said that consumers used to spend 100 yuan to eat, but now they spend 100 yuan to eat better things.
As a result, a large number of restaurants can only choose to reduce prices, or spend higher costs to improve quality, and profit margins are reduced.
From the perspective of catering supply, in the past two years, a group of unemployed people have continued to pour into the catering industry, setting up stalls, opening small shops or joining chain brands at small costs, which has pushed up the supply of catering.
△ Image source: Photo by Red Meal Network
Mr. Lin of Panyu District, Guangzhou, said that the night market near Haipang Station of Metro Line 4 had only about a dozen catering stalls last year, and the number of stalls in the night market has increased to more than 30 this year. ”
The stalls are often lower than restaurants in terms of rent and labor costs, and the price can also be lower, which naturally diverts a group of consumers and further intensifies the competition in the industry. Mr. Lin said that with the expansion of the night market, more and more migrant workers and white-collar workers are spending money in the night market, and the business of the surrounding brick-and-mortar restaurants has declined.
"For the bottom restaurants that have no special advantages, the only way they compete for customers is to keep involution, or reduce the price to compress their profits in exchange for order volume, or reduce their operating costs, such as the original 4 people to open a store into 2 people, the original 8 hours of business is now 10 hours." Shou Wenbin, founder of Zhisheng Catering Brand Strategy Consulting, told Red Food.com.
In addition to stalls, there are also many restaurants through price wars to obtain orders, on the group buying platform, first-tier cities sell more than 100 yuan of 3, 4 people group purchase package is not uncommon, in Guangzhou for example, a well-known grilled fish brand launched a 199 yuan 3-4 person package; A bullfrog brand launched a 179 yuan meal for 3-4 people; A beef offal brand launched a 168 yuan three-person meal......
In addition, the sinking of the head brand "horse racing" style also fights a price war, further squeezing the living space of the middle and tail brands.
For example, this year, the competition for franchisees tends to be white-hot, and many brands have accelerated the seizure of the market through strategies such as "0 yuan to join", "installment payment" and "small store type" to reduce the threshold for opening stores.
Behind the price war is often a cruel cognitive war, and it is the reshaping of the price system by the head brand. Nowadays, leading brands rely on large-scale and low-cost technology and business model upgrades, and are playing a game of fast and slow to speed up the elimination process. For example, Luckin's 9.9 yuan activity has changed many consumers' perception of coffee to a considerable extent, coffee is not all "high-end products" that sell about 30 yuan, and many small and medium-sized coffee brands are also inferior to "9.9 yuan" and have been reshuffled in large quantities.
Conclusion
The cold external economy and consumption environment, as well as the fierce internal competition, have made many catering people feel pressure - seeing that the industry reshuffle has become more cruel, and the store has not been able to attract more customers, it is difficult to increase turnover, but it is easy to decline, what should I do in the future?
"Catering people may need to manage their own expectations, the catering business is far from being as easy to do as everyone thinks, and reshuffling is the norm." Shou Wenbin said.
When involution and reshuffle become the norm, for the catering people who are still persistent, there is only one way in front of them: to survive. No matter how difficult it is to do this year's catering, you must "boil" it, "boil" it first, and slowly look for opportunities. Because anything is possible as long as you don't get off the table.
Cover image source: Picture Worm Creative