Hubei new season wheat is on the market one after another, what is the yield and quality of harvested wheat, can the flour mill be used normally, and what is the price of the scale? Is there a market for old wheat after the new wheat is listed, what are the disadvantages and bulls, and what is the current price difference between wheat and corn? What is the impact of windy weather in Henan on wheat on May 14? Where will the market prices of corn and soybeans go after wheat is marketed?
01
Hubei Xinmai has been listed one after another, what is the opening price?
Special analyst Feng Likun
This week, Hubei new season wheat has been listed, the province's overall harvest progress is about two percent, the quality of harvested wheat is good, flour mills can be used normally, and some enterprises in Henan Province have purchased new wheat. At present, the overall supply of wheat market is sufficient, the new season wheat harvest is expected to be strong, the price of new wheat is low, the procurement of milling enterprises tends to be cautious, some listed enterprises have lowered the purchase price of new wheat for the first time, and the price of individual enterprises is the same, and the price of wheat in Hubei follows the market price to decline.
Judging from the price of new wheat that has been listed in Hubei, the price of the scale is about 2400 yuan/ton, about 200 yuan/ton lower than the same period last year, and slightly higher than the minimum purchase price of 2360 yuan/ton. Specifically, on May 15, the price of Xinmai in 2024 in Zhoukou Wudeli, Henan Province was 2,464 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan/ton compared with the quotation when the scale was opened; Henan Suiping Wudeli 2460 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; Shandong Dongming Wudeli 2520 yuan/ton, Hebei Shenzhou Wudeli 2520 yuan/ton, Jiangsu Xinghua Wudeli 2580 yuan/ton, Shaanxi Weinan Wudeli 2580 yuan/ton, the price has not changed.
At present, the quantity of new wheat on the market is not large, and the quality is different, so the price range is large, and it is only a test offer, which is not very representative. Judging from the southern part of Hubei that has been harvested so far, there is lodging phenomenon in the local wheat fields, and sporadic occurrence of scab occurs, but the occurrence of germinated wheat is rare. Due to the rainy weather in April, this year's crop was average, and the bulk density of wheat was lower than that of the previous year. If there is continuous rainy weather in the later period, the quality of wheat in some areas may be damaged, but it can be digested by local feed enterprises and flour enterprises, and the advantage of export transportation is not large. Considering the good weather during the wheat growing season last year and the best yield in recent years, this year's wheat yield in Hubei is a flat year.
According to the situation of Henan and Anhui, during the autumn sowing period, Henan was sown more than 10 days later than usual, the weather was fine during the flowering stage, and there was almost no gibberella phenomenon in central and northern Henan, and the number of wheat ears increased due to the long jointing stage. Some areas in southern Henan and northern Anhui were affected by the "bad rain" in the previous year, and local farmers increased the sowing amount during autumn sowing, and wheat planting was relatively dense, and there were sporadic lodging phenomena in some areas. There is rainy weather in the flowering period in the south of the Huai River, and the scab phenomenon is scattered sporadically.
Hubei Xinmai is expected to be listed in large quantities around May 20, the current grain enterprises and traders have a wait-and-see attitude, the willingness to build a warehouse is not strong, mainly with the harvest, and the main producing areas in northern Hubei will be listed in large quantities and then adjust the acquisition strategy according to market conditions.
02
After the new wheat is listed, is there still a market for the old wheat?
Special analyst Feng Likun
On May 15, the national standard second-class ordinary wheat entry price: 2560 yuan/ton in Shijiazhuang, Hebei, 2540 yuan/ton in Hengshui, 2540 yuan/ton in Handan; Shandong Jinan 2540 yuan/ton, Dezhou 2520 yuan/ton, Heze 2550 yuan/ton; Henan Zhengzhou 2540 yuan/ton, Xinxiang 2530 yuan/ton, Zhoukou 2510 yuan/ton; Xuzhou, Jiangsu 2570 yuan/ton; Suzhou, Anhui Province 2570 yuan/ton. The above-mentioned areas fell by 10~110 yuan/ton week-on-week, of which Henan fell more, mainly because some manufacturers quoted the same price.
This week, wheat prices continued to fall last week, and the transaction rate and transaction price of local reserves decreased compared with the previous period, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. The main reasons: first, the new season wheat is about to be marketed, if the weather is good during the harvest period, it is expected to have another bumper harvest, and the market supply pressure will increase; Second, although the rotation of central reserves has been suspended, the amount of wheat that has not been shipped out of the warehouse in the early stage is relatively large, which can still meet the market supply; Third, the downstream demand is not strong, and flour enterprises are in the cycle of reducing inventory, mainly purchasing local reserves to rotate grain sources to ensure production; Fourth, before the new wheat was listed, traders vacated their positions and had great financial pressure, and they are currently concentrating on selling grain.
Although the wheat market is facing the above "four negatives", there is also positive news to limit the decline of old wheat.
From the policy side, after the announcement of the summer grain purchase policy, the central and local reserves will start the new wheat rotation work one after another. The State Food and Material Reserves Administration expects that the purchase volume of summer grain in the peak season will be about 70 million tons, a slight increase from last year, of which about 63 million tons of wheat, which will boost wheat prices to a certain extent.
From the supply side, the market is generally concerned about the weather before the harvest, especially the dry and hot wind conditions in the producing areas; Local reserve wheat rotation is the main source of grain for the current flour enterprises, close to the new wheat market, the current wheat price continues to fall, all parties pay more attention to the local reserve auction policy.
From the demand side, the new season wheat needs to be ripened before it can be used to process flour, and flour companies are currently maintaining low inventory operations, waiting for new wheat to go on the market and centralized procurement, so it is expected that the price of new wheat will show a trend of "low opening and high walking".
From the point of view of price comparison, the price difference between wheat and corn in the main producing areas narrowed from the high point of 470 yuan/ton in late February to about 240 yuan/ton at present, and the current corn price is difficult to fall deeply, if the price of wheat continues to fall, when the price of wheat and corn falls below 150 yuan/ton, wheat will have a feed advantage. Therefore, the price of corn, as the "bottom" of wheat prices, has a supporting effect on wheat prices.
03
How much does the wind in Henan affect wheat on May 14?
Special analyst Feng Likun
Last year, Henan wheat suffered from "bad rain" in late May, and there were rainy weather in many places in southern Henan, so that the mature wheat could not be harvested in time, germination and mildew appeared, and the yield and quality were reduced to varying degrees. This year's new wheat is close to harvest, on the night of May 14, a rare windy weather swept through most areas of Henan, and the wind in some areas reached an astonishing level of 12~13, which aroused widespread concern in the market.
Henan Provincial Meteorological Observatory monitoring shows that on the evening of May 14, there were 8~10 gales in most parts of the north north of the Huai River, 11 or more gales in the north, central and western parts of the country, and 12 to 13 in the northwest of Xinxiang, western Zhengzhou and northern Xuchang.
On May 15, Yu Weidong, chief engineer and senior engineer of Henan Provincial Institute of Meteorological Sciences, said that at present, there are lodging plots in Xinxiang, Hebi and Puyang, and there are a small number of lodging spots and pieces in other areas. At present, wheat in Henan has entered the critical stage of grain filling, and from the perspective of the whole province, the impact of the strong wind on wheat is generally light.
From the perspective of lodging plots, due to the recent dry weather, farmers concentrated on irrigation in these two days, and the loose soil of the irrigated wheat field, coupled with the influence of windy weather, caused the lodging of wheat field, and the mild lodging had little impact on the yield, but the severe lodging would cause the wheat stalk to break, and then affect the maturity of wheat. In order to effectively do a good job in wheat lodging response and remediation, on May 15, Henan Provincial Agricultural Technology Extension Station issued the "Technical Guidance on Wheat Lodging Response and Remediation" for the first time to guide farmers to respond scientifically and ensure harvest quality.
Last week, most of the winter wheat areas in the north were dominated by fine weather, sufficient light and heat, and suitable moisture in most areas, which was conducive to heading and grain filling of winter wheat. The Central Meteorological Observatory predicts that there will be dry and hot wind weather in Huanghuai and southern North China in the near future, which is not conducive to wheat filling and fruiting. At the same time, high temperature and moisture deficiency are conducive to the proliferation of wheat aphids and the harm of large quantities of feeding. Before May 17, the precipitation in the south was small and weak, which was conducive to the harvesting and drying of summer grain crops.
At present, the national spring plowing and spring sowing has come to an end, and the progress is slightly faster than usual. Spring wheat in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia is in the seedling to three-leaf stage, and some of them have entered the tillering and jointing stage, and most of them are in the tillering to jointing stage.
04
New wheat is on the market one after another, and corn prices will stop rising?
Special analyst Fu Jianmeng
Recently, the wheat market has continued to decline, with strong supply and weak demand and lower prices. The central reserve rotation grain auction is suspended, but the local reserves continue to be put on the market, the wheat market flow is large, the inventory consumption of enterprises is in the cyclical off-season, although production has resumed in the near future, but the purchase has not increased significantly, the processing demand is limited, the arrival volume continues to be high, and the price is difficult to rise.
With the gradual warming of temperatures, the scope of new wheat harvesting and listing in North China will be further expanded, and some traders have begun to plan to vacate their warehouses and sell old wheat and corn in stock, and the circulation of overstocked wheat will gradually increase, and the new wheat will be listed one after another, which will suppress the price of old wheat. Enterprises have weak confidence in the new wheat market outlook, and they are more cautious in purchasing and selling new season wheat.
At present, the market price of corn continues to be stable and strong. The grain sources at the grassroots level have basically been transferred to the hands of traders, and the growers in the producing areas are busy with spring ploughing, so there are fewer grain sources in their hands, and there is little pressure to sell grain. Traders mainly purchase naturally dried high-quality corn, shipments are relatively slow, the bullish mentality is strong, the market arrival is tight, the arrival of processing enterprises is reduced, and some enterprises increase the purchase price and increase inventory. Feed enterprises still maintain a small amount of rolling replenishment of feed corn, and the transaction rhythm of high-quality corn has weakened. The arrival of grain at the port has increased, the inventory has continued to rise, and traders are eager to ship, but the prices of the north and south ports tend to be consistent, the orders of downstream enterprises are small, the loading demand is weakened, the turnover is low, and the goods are slow.
At present, the corn spot market is showing a strong upward momentum, and the farmers in the Northeast and North China producing areas who still have surplus grain that have not yet been sold have increased their enthusiasm for selling grain, and the supply of corn has gradually decreased.
Wheat prices continued to decline, corn prices continued to rise, spreads gradually tightened, substitution risks increased, and corn prices continued to be under pressure. It is understood that a feed enterprise in Yishui, Shandong Province purchased a reference price of 2280~2420 yuan/ton for feed corn with a moisture of 14%~16%, a bulk density of more than 700g/L and mildew of less than 2%; A company in Wuhan, Hubei Province purchased a reference price of 2,340 yuan/ton of feed wheat with a moisture content of 13.5%, a bulk density of more than 780g/L and a mildew of less than 2%.
The new season wheat has been on the market, and the mainstream quotation has not yet been formed, and traders and grain points may carry out a round of vacant actions, and corn will be sold one after another, and corn may stop rising in a short period of time.
05
Soybean shipment pressure during the wheat harvest season?
Special analyst Li Dongmei
In mid-May, grassroots farmers in Northeast China are still busy with field management after spring sowing or spring sowing, and the surplus soybean grain at the grassroots level in many places is about 10%, and the proportion of surplus grain with good quality in the hands of farmers is small. Most traders reported that the purchase volume has been slow for many days, and traders either buy randomly, or turn to the purchase and sale of Russian beans, or leave the market to wait and see.
The wheat is about to be harvested, and the pressure on shipments remains. The wheat harvest in the soybean producing areas in the south is approaching, and the surplus soybean grain at the grassroots level is still two to three percent, and the consumption rate is slower than that of the same period in previous years. Although the second-grade beans in this producing area show excellent competitiveness compared with Northeast beans and imported beans, the end market is in the seasonal off-season, and the demand for soy products has decreased accordingly. At the current pace of shipments, many places in the southern producing areas will either not be able to vacate their warehouses before the wheat harvest, or the remaining soybean sources will be concentrated in the hands of some traders. Pay attention to the market transaction situation, or put pressure on the price trend in the second half of the month.
The surplus grain at the grassroots level has decreased, and the auction of state reserves has been restarted. On May 14, China Grain Storage Network planned to auction 13,296 tons of domestic soybeans, and the actual transaction was 4,166 tons, with a turnover rate of 31.33% and a floor price of 4,500 yuan/ton. The transaction target is stored in Mudanjiang City, produced in 2021, and the reserve price has not been adjusted, but the target has been split to attract some traders to participate in the auction, which shows that there is less surplus grain at the grassroots level in Heilongjiang producing area, the spot price is relatively firm, and the market has a certain demand. On May 17, China Grain Storage Network plans to auction 8,000 tons of domestic soybeans, with a production period of 2020, and the target storage is distributed in Muling City, Mudanjiang, divided into 8 targets, with a quantity of 919~1489 tons, or can meet the needs of different traders.
The price of beans in the US Gulf was adjusted, first rising and then falling. After the price of U.S. beans was lowered, the price of U.S. Gulf beans lacked price advantage compared with second-grade beans in southern producing areas, and the transactions of most U.S. Gulf bean dealers slowed down significantly. As of May 16, the loading price of Tianjin Port Meiwan beans has fallen to 5300~5330 yuan/ton, which is basically the level before this round of price increases. The price of Meiwan beans has been raised this time, which has boosted the sales speed of some categories of Northeast beans, and also given the opportunity to ship second-grade beans in the southern producing areas.
The domestic soybean spot market is a whole, and the prices of Northeast beans, southern beans or imported beans will be linked in some cases. In the first half of May, the price of beans in the United States and southern producing areas fluctuated, and the overall price of beans in the northeast producing areas did not change much, and the ordinary quality bean source was mainly running smoothly, and the sales price of high-protein bean sources increased slightly. The weather is gradually getting hotter, and the overall speed of goods in the production and marketing area may slow down.