Focus on the easing and improvement of the property market
Editor's note: On May 17, the property market ushered in a blockbuster benefit, and multiple departments joined forces to play a policy "combination punch", and further efforts were made to ensure the delivery of housing and destocking. In addition, with the recent lifting of purchase restrictions in Hangzhou, Xi'an and other cities, second-tier cities have basically loosened, and first-tier cities have also been relatively relaxed. This issue of Real Estate Weekly focuses on the easing and improvement of the property market, focusing on the positive changes in the real estate market in first- and second-tier cities.
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■China Economic Times reporter Li Xiaohong
On May 17, the policy of personal housing commercial loans and housing provident fund loans ushered in a major adjustment: the lower limit of the interest rate policy for commercial personal housing loans for the first and second houses at the national level was cancelled; The interest rate of personal housing provident fund loans will be lowered by 0.25 percentage points, and the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for the first house will be adjusted to no less than 15%, and the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for the second house will be adjusted to no less than 25%.
At the same time, as one of the important means of property market regulation, purchase restrictions are gradually withdrawing from the historical stage. Up to now, except for the four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, as well as the main urban area of Tianjin, Hengqin of Zhuhai and Hainan Province, which have retained the purchase restriction policy, other places have completely canceled the purchase restriction policy.
"Adapting to the new changes in the relationship between supply and demand, liberalizing the purchase restriction and optimizing the demand-side management policy will help release some of the pent-up demand in the early stage, especially the improvement demand of some old citizens; The easing of the housing loan policy is essentially to lower the threshold of self-owned funds for buying a house, and the pressure of monthly repayment will also be significantly reduced, which will promote the improvement of the payment ability of the demand side, especially the payment ability of new citizens. Wang Ruimin, an associate researcher at the Institute of Market Economy of the Development Research Center of the State Council, told the China Economic Times that the above-mentioned policy "combination punch" is expected to have a greater boost to the confidence of the real estate market in second-tier cities. From the perspective of policy implementation, in the short term, the main probability is that the trading volume will stabilize and rebound, and there will be at least a pulse-like boosting effect.
01
The policy "combination punch" activates the demand for the property market in second-tier cities
On April 30, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed for the first time that "it is necessary to coordinate the study of policies and measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimize the incremental housing". Since then, many places have successively relaxed the purchase restriction policy, which has played a certain role in boosting the transaction and confidence of the real estate market. On May 9, Hangzhou and Xi'an announced that they would completely cancel the property market purchase restriction policy. At present, except for the four first-tier cities, the main urban area of Tianjin, Hengqin, Zhuhai and Hainan Province, which retain the purchase restriction policy, other places have completely canceled the purchase restriction policy.
The reporter of China Economic Times learned from a number of intermediaries that after the cancellation of purchase restrictions in many second-tier cities, the heat of the property market has rebounded, and the number of intermediaries showing houses has increased significantly. Taking Hangzhou as an example, data from the Hangzhou I Love My Home Research Institute shows that on May 9, the number of new visitors in Hangzhou increased by 45% compared with the previous day, the number of new listings increased by 93%, and the number of customers brought to see increased by 25%. In terms of average daily changes, from May 9 to May 13, the average daily number of new listings increased by 31% compared with April, the average daily number of new listings increased by 25.8%, and the average daily number of new visitors increased by 36%.
Shangguan Jian, president of Hangzhou Shell Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from China Economic Times that after the purchase restriction policy was relaxed, the average daily number of second-hand housing inquiries increased by 33% compared with April, and the number of buying and selling houses increased by 50%, and the number of shows was basically the same as before, and the lower quantity increased by 27%. Among them, on May 12, the lower quota of Shell Hangzhou Station was the highest single-day lower quota since 2021. In the short term, the cancellation of the purchase restriction policy has obviously played a role in helping the property market transactions.
The China Economic Times reporter interviewed a number of potential home buyers or improvement home buyers in second-tier cities, and some buyers have begun to look at houses, but there is still a "wait and see" mentality, looking forward to the introduction of greater real estate support policies. At the same time, many home buyers said that they are not confident about their future income, and if they want to buy or change houses, they must consider not only the down payment, but also whether the income in the next two or three decades can support the mortgage and other household expenses.
Yu Huayi, deputy director of the Urban and Real Estate Research Center of the National Institute of Development and Strategy of Chinese University, told the China Economic Times that the comprehensive liberalization of purchase restrictions in second-tier cities has brought necessary elements including personnel, capital and information to the real estate market, bringing vitality to the real estate market. Second, the relaxation of housing purchase restrictions has brought confidence to home buyers and developers. Similar to the financial markets, if there is a lack of confidence among market participants, the real estate market will have low trading activity and prices may continue to fall. The relaxation of purchase restrictions has given market participants a lot of confidence, and it is conducive to the stability of housing prices in the context of declining housing prices.
The central bank's "combination punch" to optimize the real estate credit policy is conducive to reducing the burden on home buyers, enhancing residents' spending ability and willingness, and creating a more suitable monetary and credit environment for the property market to stabilize and recover from the demand side. Compared with first-tier cities, second-tier cities and below have more flexible policies, so the impact of these policies on second-tier cities and below will be more significant.
Wang Ruimin told the China Economic Times that second-tier cities are basically cities with a net inflow of population, with strong industrial vitality and strong housing demand. Due to the time lag between supply and demand, supply adjustment tends to lag behind the rapid rise in demand when the market is up; When the supply adjustment is in place, the demand has often undergone new changes, bringing a certain amount of de-escalation pressure. The above-mentioned policies conform to the changes in supply and demand, and help to achieve a new balance between supply and demand in the new stage.
In addition, Yu Huayi believes that the real estate market also has the characteristics of market linkage and spillover effect. Many second-tier cities are also provincial capitals. The activity of the real estate market in second-tier cities will affect the surrounding third- and fourth-tier cities through market linkage and spillover, which may also have a certain effect on stabilizing housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities.
02
The property market in second-tier cities may be further differentiated
From Chengdu before the "May Day" to Hangzhou and Xi'an after the holiday, the core second-tier cities have successively relaxed purchase restrictions, marking that the property market policy is entering a new round of easing period, and the property market regulation has entered a new stage.
Yu Huayi believes that after second-tier cities such as Hangzhou and Xi'an relax purchase restrictions, in the short term, there should be a boost to the transaction volume of new homes, especially high-end and high-quality new housing projects. In recent years, as large cities bid farewell to housing shortages, the demand for rigid housing has gradually transitioned to the demand for improved housing. Many new housing projects are launched in response to the demand for improvement. After the purchase restrictions were lifted, this part of the demand was released, showing the hot sales of high-end new housing projects. However, in many large cities, buyers often buy new homes through trade-in. After the purchase restrictions are relaxed, the release of improved demand is often accompanied by an increase in the number of second-hand housing listings in the short term. Therefore, in the short term, it may be difficult to increase the number and transaction volume of second-hand houses, and the price of second-hand houses will not increase in the short term. With the gradual digestion of the stock of housing, in the long run, the market has a trend of recovery.
According to Liu Lu, a professor at the School of Economics of Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, after the second-tier cities fully relax the purchase restrictions, the differentiation of the property market will further expand. For example, in the past, some areas with oversupply had insufficient purchasing power in the property market. After the purchase restrictions are lifted, the direct benefit is the areas that were previously in short supply, and the purchasing power of the property market will be further concentrated in these areas in short supply. In other areas where supply exceeds demand, the purchasing power of the property market will be further diverted. Liu Lu observed some recent changes in the Chengdu property market and found that there was indeed a trend of differentiation. "The differentiation has only just begun, and it will be more pronounced in the future."
Yu Huayi also believes that while the "combination of real estate credit policies" is good for the real estate market, it may lead to further differentiation of the market. The high-end and improved housing market has risen further, but the effect of improvement on the rigid housing market remains to be seen.
Although the abolition of the purchase restriction policy has eliminated the shackles of factor flow and confidence in second-tier cities, which is a positive positive for the real estate market, the development of the real estate market in second-tier cities still faces some problems that need to be solved urgently.
Yu Huayi believes that second-tier cities have experienced rapid development and urban expansion in the past, and often have a large scale of land supply in the suburbs, but the infrastructure and supporting facilities cannot keep up, making the real estate problem in the suburbs of second-tier cities very prominent. He suggested that second-tier cities should abandon the "big pie" development model in the future and promote a compact development model. This will not only help reduce the financial burden of local governments and promote the development of agglomeration effects, but also help resolve the mismatch between supply and demand of real estate in second-tier cities.
Wang Ruimin believes that demand differentiation and supply homogeneity are a pair of prominent contradictions in second-tier cities. The new expectation of the old citizens for high-quality housing is actually an expectation for the leap in living form; The new citizens mainly solve the problem of rigid housing for the first time, and the needs of the two are highly differentiated, objectively calling for differentiated housing supply, so that the old citizens and new citizens can get their own place on the dynamic housing ladder. At present, some second-tier cities are also actively carrying out housing "trade-in". He suggested that new forms of living are needed to boost the enthusiasm and willingness of old citizens to "change their lives", realize supply to create demand, activate the market, and drive the overall upward upgrading of the real estate industry. Part of the old houses replaced are used as affordable housing, which is not only conducive to the balance of supply and demand on the real estate market, but also helps to alleviate the pressure of insufficient supply on the security side.
Shangguanjian said that in second-tier cities, policies to support and encourage reasonable housing demand will continue to be introduced, home buyers are expected to improve, second-hand housing transactions are expected to come out of the lowest trough, price for volume will slowly narrow, and the industry is expected to achieve a new equilibrium. For new houses, there is a mismatch between supply and demand, resulting in a benign linkage between new houses and second-hand houses, and it is difficult to greatly increase the transaction volume. There is an urgent need for high-quality residential development. "The scale, structure and rhythm of land supply should be adjusted, and the supply of high-quality land should be increased in areas with insufficient supply in the central urban area, and the supply should be minimized in places with large supply and high sales pressure, or the supply of plots with low plot ratio."
Chief Producer丨Wang Hui and Che Haigang
Producer丨Li Piguang, Wang Yu, Liu Weimin
Editor-in-Chief丨Mao Jinghui Editor丨Gu Yun