Iran's President Crashed These questions remain to be answered

Why take the risk of flying in an American-made aging helicopter?

Who will take over the presidency?

How to change the political situation in Iran?

Will it lead to a seismic shift in the Middle East?

On the morning of May 20, local time, after more than 12 hours of searching, Iranian President Raisi and Iranian Foreign Minister Abdollahian were confirmed dead.

On the afternoon of the 19th local time, a helicopter carrying the Iranian president, foreign minister and other entourages had a "hard landing" accident in the Varzakan region of East Azerbaijan Province. After the accident, the Iranian side quickly organized a rescue operation, but the rescue operation was hampered by the inaccessibility of the accident area, poor mountain and forest conditions, and foggy weather.

Raisi, who has been Iran's president since August 2021, is the second-highest politician behind Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Ali Khamenei and was once seen as a successor to the 85-year-old Khamenei. What helicopter is Leahy flying in? Why a hard landing? Two helicopters passed through smoothly, why was the presidential plane the only one crashed? Who will succeed the president of Iran? How will his sudden death change Iran's political situation?

According to a report by the Islamic Republic of Iran Radio and Television on the 20th, the helicopter in which Iranian President Raisi was traveling crashed in the northwestern province of East Azerbaijan on the 19th, and Raisi was unfortunately killed. According to the report, Iranian Foreign Minister Abdollahian, East Azerbaijan Provincial Governor Rahmati and other senior officials and crew members of Raisi's entourage were also killed in the accident.

According to the Islamic Republic of Iran News Agency, after Raisi and others were killed, the Iranian government convened an emergency meeting chaired by First Vice President Muhber and issued a statement to express condolences to the victims and guarantee that state affairs would not be interfered with as a result.

According to Article 131 of the Iranian Constitution, if the president dies during his term of office, the first vice president shall act as president, confirmed by the Supreme Leader of Iran. The First Vice-President, the Speaker of Parliament and the Attorney General will form a committee that will have 50 days to schedule the election of a new president.

According to reports, the president's helicopter fleet, consisting of three helicopters, was travelling from Khoda Avalin County to Tabriz to attend the inauguration of a petrochemical complex. Earlier in the day, Raisi joined Azerbaijani President Aliyev in the inauguration of the reservoir dam in Khoda Afarin County. According to reports, after the "hard landing" of the helicopter in which Raisi and Abdollahian were travelling, the other two helicopters have arrived safely at their destinations.

The wrecked helicopter carried a total of nine people, including Iranian President Raisi and Iranian Foreign Minister Abdollahian, as well as East Azerbaijan Governor Rahmati and Imam Al Hasheem, as well as three crew members and two security personnel.

What type of helicopter are you flying in?

It is known as the "model worker" of helicopters and is widely used by many countries

According to the report, the helicopter in which Raisi was flying was a American-made Bell 212. The Bell 212 is a twin-propeller medium multi-role helicopter with a twin-engine design that first entered service with the Canadian Forces in 1968. Its military version is known as the "UH-1N" and is widely used by the U.S. Navy, Air Force, and other national militaries.

The maximum number of seats in the civilian version of the Bell 212 helicopter is 15, and it is mainly used for passenger, ambulance, offshore oil development and other tasks. It is reported that the Bell 212 helicopter is known as the "model worker" in the helicopter industry, and has quickly become the main force in the helicopter industry and a strong main force in the air since its launch. The twin-engine configuration makes it ideal for a wide range of missions, with the Canadian Coast Guard, the Greek Navy, the Japan Coast Guard, the Royal Thai Police, and several U.S. police and fire departments using the Bell 212.

20 years ago, the U.S.-made aging machine Iran struggled to buy new parts due to international sanctions

According to the Iranian news agency, Iran has about ten Bell 212 helicopters. The Bell 212 helicopter carrying President Raisi is one of five of the same type purchased from Canada during former President Khatami's presidency and is mainly responsible for the flights of government officials. Khatami was Iran's president from 1997 to 2005, meaning that Raisi's helicopter was purchased for at least 20 years.

The Iranian president mostly uses Mi-8/17 helicopters for long-haul flights. At present, I don't know why Leahy took the risk of riding this American-made aging machine. According to the analysis, Iran has different types of helicopters in the country, but because of years of international sanctions, it is difficult for Iran to obtain enough spare parts, and often "tear down the east wall to make up the west wall". Many helicopters fall into disrepair and are likely to cause helicopter accidents directly or indirectly because they are not optimally maintained.

Former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said on the 20th that the United States imposed sanctions on Iran's aviation industry to prevent Iran from importing from abroad was one of the factors that led to the accident of the helicopter in which Raisi and other senior officials were traveling.

Cedric Stewart, a retired officer of the US Air Force and a military analyst at CNN, also believes that it is difficult for Iran to obtain spare parts due to US sanctions. The fuselage itself, combined with weather conditions, could cause the helicopter to crash.

Iranian officials have not yet released information on the specifics of the crash.

Why is it only the presidential plane that crashes?

U.S. says "it looks like an accident" Israel is busy clarifying that "it wasn't us (who did it)"

The hard-landed helicopter was one of the three helicopters heading to the Azerbaijani border, and the other two helicopters passed through without incident, except for the president's plane crash, and conspiracy theories were born. In this regard, the US side is anxious to prove that "it is not murder", and Israeli officials have also hurriedly denied it.

Chuck Schumer, Democratic leader of the U.S. Senate, said: "U.S. intelligence officials believe there is no evidence of murder at this time. The site of the helicopter crash is in the Great Smoky Mountains of northwestern Iran and looks like an accident. "Schumer was the first Jewish majority leader in the history of the U.S. Senate, and he has long been a loyal supporter of Israel.

An Israeli official also said on the 20th that Israel had no connection with Raisi's death. The Israeli official, who asked not to be named, told Reuters: "It wasn't us. ”

Israel has long been hostile to Iran. Iran has repeatedly accused Israel of assassinating Iranian officials and scientists and carrying out sabotage activities against Iran. In December, Iran said al-Mousavi, a senior official of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who served as a military adviser in Syria, had been killed in an Israeli missile attack. On April 1 this year, a missile attack on the consular building of the Iranian Embassy in Syria killed Reza Zahedi, a senior commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force, and others. Iran believes that the attack was carried out by the Chinese side and retaliated against Israel.

Analysts said Raisi's helicopter was passing through the foggy mountains of northwestern Iran after at least two cabinet ministers and two key military commanders had been killed in similar accidents.

Where is Iranian politics headed?

Raisi is the number two man in the country and he is seen as Khamenei's successor

Raisi, 64, is among Iran's hardliners and is the second-most powerful man in Iran, behind lifelong Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Ali Khamenei.

Raisi was born on December 14, 1960, in Mashhad, Iran's second-largest city, to a family of Shiite Muslims. As a young man, he was a supporter of the Islamic Revolution and was also said to have been involved in the student movement.

After graduating from Qom Theological Seminary, Raisi attended Shahid Mutahari University to complete his studies in Islamic jurisprudence. He then moved into the Iranian judicial system, serving as Deputy Public Prosecutor in Tehran from 1985 to 1989 and later as Public Prosecutor in Tehran.

In 1994, Raisi served as chairman of Iran's National Monitoring Organization until 2004, when he was appointed deputy chief justice of Iran, and in 2014, he became Iran's attorney general. In 2017, Raisi ran as a conservative representative in the presidential election and was appointed chief of justice in Iran in 2019. In June 2021, he was elected the 13th president of Iran with about 62% of the vote, and was inaugurated in August of the same year.

Raisi has the trust of Khamenei and is seen as his successor. As a representative of Iran's hard-line conservatives, since assuming the presidency in 2021, he has aligned with Khamenei on key international issues, and has taken a tough stance on issues such as the JCPOA negotiations and opposition to the West and Israel. During his presidency, Raisi advocated the restoration of diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia and took a tough stance toward the United States. Ongoing diplomatic confrontation with Israel and the launch of air strikes against Israel last month. He has also unleashed an anti-corruption crackdown, including punishing inaction within the judicial system and dismissing unqualified judges.

Vice President Temporarily Takes Over as President Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Sits in Charge to Ensure No Chaos in Iran

In the aftermath of the crash, the 85-year-old Khamenei appealed to Iranians not to worry, saying that national affairs would not be disrupted. Some analysts said that although the incident happened suddenly, Khamenei is in control of the overall situation, and it is believed that there will be no major turmoil in Iran.

"There should be a smooth transition of state power in Iran, and there will be no chaos as a result." Liu Zhongmin, a professor at the Institute of Middle East Studies at Shanghai Foreign Chinese University, said that the Islamic Republic of Iran has been established for more than 40 years, and Iran's political stability is related to the supreme leader. Iran is dominated by religious leaders, and its political system is a super-stable power structure. "What you can see is that since Khamenei became the religious leader in 1989, he has been able to control the political situation in Iran, whether it is a reformist or a conservative government."

But some analysts also said that although Raisi is only the "No. 2 man", his tragic death will still affect Iranian politics. In addition to quickly finding a new president in a short period of time and confronting the United States and Israel in the current chaotic and complex Middle East situation, it is also necessary to prevent the possibility of another economic downturn and internal strife that could lead to chaos.

Al Jazeera reports that Muhber, who was born in Dyzfur in 1955, has temporarily taken over as president, and Al Jazeera reported that Mukhber spent 14 years as the head of Iran's "headquarters for the execution of the Imam's orders", a powerful economic conglomerate that the Iranian media described as mainly focused on philanthropy. A native of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Muhber also long-headed Iran's largest foundation and managed assets directly under the Supreme Leader. This person is acting as president, and Iran's domestic and foreign affairs will not change significantly in the short term. Han Jianwei, an associate professor at the Institute of Middle East Studies at Shanghai Wai Chinese University, said that Muhber does not have enough prestige to control the situation in Iran, and he can only be regarded as a caretaker government after taking over the government.

In addition, there are reports that after Raisi's crash, the issue of the succession of Iran's supreme leader has come into focus. Due to Khamenei's advanced age and long-standing rumors of illness, the question of his heirs has been the subject of constant concern. Analysts say that after Raisi's death, the competition between candidates is likely to become more intense, and Khamenei's second son, Mojtaba, is the favorite. He has long been active behind the scenes, has not held any government office, and has not been seen in public often, but there are reports that many clergy oppose hereditary succession to the supreme leadership.

There are also concerns about whether the Middle East will usher in a major change after this accident. Liu Zhongmin believes that this depends on the characterization of the incident. "If it's an accident caused purely by weather, the actual change of president won't have much volatility in the regional and international situation. So far, the response of countries across the region has been relatively positive. Compiled by Huashang Daily Gale News reporter Guo Ji