The real estate market destocked kicked off, real estate people: don't believe you don't buy

36 Krypton

2024-05-17 19:02Posted on the official account of Beijing 36Kr

May 17th is a day of excitement for real estate people.

He Lifeng, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, emphasized in his speech that it is necessary to "deeply understand the people's and political nature of real estate work, and continue to adhere to the city-specific policies", "relevant local governments should proceed from reality and properly dispose of the idle stock of residential land that has been transferred by means of recovery and acquisition, so as to help real estate enterprises with financial difficulties to solve their difficulties." In cities with a large inventory of commercial housing, the government may purchase some commercial housing at a reasonable price as appropriate. ”

This is after the Politburo meeting on April 30 set the tone for the property market to turn to "destocking", the high-level once again directly voiced a statement, the core content emphasized the need to continue to carry out real estate support policies, especially to encourage local governments to directly participate in the acquisition of stock housing and commercial housing.

Immediately afterwards, the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration issued three consecutive documents to reduce down payments and interest rates, with unprecedented intensity.

The core content of the documents issued by the two departments is:

Nationwide, the down payment ratio for loans to buy houses will be reduced, with a minimum of 15% for the first home and 25% for the second house; The interest rate of personal housing provident fund loans was lowered by 0.25 percentage points, and the interest rate of the first set of loans for more than 5 years was 2.85%, and the interest rate of the second set was 3.325%; The lower limit of the interest rate policy for commercial personal housing loans for the first and second houses at the national level will be abolished, and the banking financial institutions in various regions will independently determine the lower and lower limits of the interest rate.

After the implementation of the above three policies, the down payment ratio and interest rate of borrowing to buy a house will be at an all-time low, so it is also called: the most relaxed home purchase policy in history.

However, because the current real estate "city-specific policy", after May 18, whether the new house is purchased according to the implementation of the new policy depends on the specific implementation standards of each city.

However, after the policy was issued, the real estate circle was collectively excited. An intermediary posted on Moments and said: The biggest effort in history, I don't believe you don't buy it.

Real estate stocks ushered in a collective surge, Vanke A, Binjiang Group, Gemdale Group, Greenland Holdings, Joy City and other A-share real estate stocks rose by the limit, and among Hong Kong stocks, Sunac China and Agile rose by more than 20%.

ST Dima, which fell into the risk of delisting due to the low density of the stock price, reached 1 yuan per share again after the stock price rose 5.26%, and the alarm was temporarily lifted.

Agencies: Willingness to buy a home will pick up

Such a large rescue is directly related to the continuous decline of the real estate market. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to April this year, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 292.52 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2%, of which the residential sales area decreased by 23.8%, and the sales volume fell by 31.1%. After falling to a new low since 2010 last year, the national residential construction started continued to decline by 25.6% year-on-year.

In April, the second-hand housing sales price index of 70 large and medium-sized cities across the country all fell year-on-year, and only Kunming rose month-on-month, and the second-hand housing prices in the four major first-tier cities fell by more than 8% on average in a year, and Guangzhou fell by 10.2%.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

On April 30, the Politburo meeting set the tone for the property market policy, and on May 17, the two departments introduced a large policy to support the real estate market, and the speed and intensity of the measures introduced are epic.

For this bailout, Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the China Index Research Institute, believes that after the policy adjustment, the down payment ratio and mortgage interest rate will be at a historical low, further reducing the down payment threshold and housing cost for residents to buy a house, which is expected to boost residents' willingness to buy a house. First-tier cities also have room for downward revision and expectations, and if core cities accelerate the follow-up of relevant measures, it is expected to have a greater driving effect on market sentiment.

How is the market reacting? Zhang Hongwei, founder of Jingjian Consulting, believes that the landing of this round of policy combination will bring a wave of trading volume recovery, but it is expected that the market will enter the off-season again in July and August, and the subsequent RRR and interest rate cuts will be needed, and lower loan interest rates will be stimulated.

State-owned enterprises will end up "collecting and saving", and the property market may turn to the Singapore model in the future

In addition to cutting down payments and interest rates, there are more tools in the policy basket to guess.

According to media statistics, more than 60 places across the country have introduced real estate "trade-in" measures, and Hangzhou, Zhengzhou, Chongqing and other places have begun to implement plans, and have a large reference.

On May 17, He Lifeng's speech at the national video conference on ensuring the delivery of housing also further clarified the direction for various localities to digest inventory through recovery and acquisition.

On the same day, Tao Ling, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, said at the regular policy briefing of the State Council that the central bank will set up a 300 billion yuan affordable housing re-loan with an interest rate of 1.75%, encourage and guide financial institutions to follow the principle of marketization and rule of law, and support local state-owned enterprises to purchase unsold commercial housing at a reasonable price for placement or rental affordable housing. The People's Bank of China will issue reloans according to 60% of the loan principal, which can drive bank loans of 500 billion yuan.

With the support of the central bank, financial institutions and state-owned enterprises will go down to buy, which may change the pattern and direction of China's real estate.

Wang Gehong, Partner of SAIF Real Estate Fund: Using affordable housing to digest the stock and REITs to activate liquidity, China's real estate is evolving to the model of Singapore + the United States.

Since the beginning of marketization, China's real estate has long borrowed from the Hong Kong model, and although it has achieved rapid development, there are also a large number of problems. In recent years, building a new model of China's real estate development has become an important indicator.

What is a "new model"? Recently, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development requires all cities to do a good job in housing development plans, determine housing demand according to population changes, scientifically arrange land supply according to housing demand, guide the allocation of financial resources, and realize the determination of housing by people, land by housing, and money by housing, so as to promote the balance of supply and demand in the real estate market, reasonable structure, and prevent market ups and downs.

Judging from the statement of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, there will be two important changes in the real estate market in the future: first, the local land supply index will be quantified, and the supply will be quantified according to key data such as resident population, urbanization rate and self-owned housing rate; Second, the central bank will coordinate the exit of financial institutions in various places, accelerate the construction of affordable housing through acquisitions and other means, and at the same time regulate the supply and demand relationship of the regional property market.

According to the analysis of Soochow Securities, the central government's regulation and control thinking has shifted from the "three major projects" to ensure the amount of physical investment to the traditional real estate supply control, and the improvement of the relationship between supply and demand will play an important role in the improvement of housing price expectations.

According to the calculation of Soochow Securities, this year, the amount of residential land transfer is expected to decrease by 34.6%-42.6%, after the "old for new" policy is fully rolled out, the average total price of 1.5 million yuan (unit price of 15,000 yuan / square, area of 100 square meters), 1.5 trillion capital volume can be collected and stored 1 million sets, static calculation, can make the number of second-hand housing listings drop by 20.7%.

The decline in land transfer fees will bring a funding gap to the acquisition and construction of affordable housing in various places, and various departments are intensively supporting programs. In addition to the above-mentioned central bank will set up a 300 billion yuan affordable housing reloan, Liu Guohong, vice minister of the Ministry of Natural Resources, said at the State Council Information Office held a regular briefing on the State Council's policies that for the acquisition of land for affordable housing projects, financial support can be provided through local government special bonds.

At present, the overall property market is declining, but the biggest funding gap is in weak second-, third- and fourth-tier cities. Zhang Hongwei, founder of Jingjian Consulting, said that nationwide, the fundamentals of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Hefei, Xi'an and other cities are acceptable, although the four first-tier cities have more than 20 months of de-escalation cycle, but because the basic demand is still there, as long as the administrative restrictions are relaxed, coupled with other national policy combinations, the recovery of market volume is just around the corner, and the transaction volume of these cities has improved, which will drive other cities to inventory. However, for other cities, they are not so lucky, especially the weak second-, third- and fourth-tier cities, the market is still facing greater pressure to destock, and more policies are still needed.

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