Suddenly, like a spring breeze overnight. The central bank made a move, the high-level set the tone, and threw out 3 "king bombs" a day, and the minimum down payment ratio was reduced to 1.5 percent!
It's an absolutely epic gesture, and we're witnessing history once again.
More importantly, the state has so resolutely demonstrated its determination to save the market, which is to tell the market clearly, clearly and categorically:
The property market is about to resurrect.
The reaction of the market speaks for itself, and the carnival has spread in every real estate-related sector.
A-shares are red across the board, Vanke and Poly are up and down...... More than 20 real estate stocks such as Rongan Real Estate, Gemdale Group, and Urban Construction Development are all up and down!
Vanke's market value returned to the 100 billion array in one fell swoop!
Hong Kong stocks and domestic real estate stocks are also boiling! Agile Group and Sunac China rose by more than 20%, Vanke Enterprise rose by more than 15%, and R&F Real Estate and Jianye Real Estate rose sharply.
Immediately afterwards, some developers immediately announced a price increase!
A real estate project developed by a central enterprise in the main urban area of Guangzhou announced that it will raise the price of the project from May 20. The property market seems to have passed the New Year, and it is full of happiness and joy.
There's no way, the lineup that came to the rescue this time is really luxurious, it's simply shocking.
He Lifeng, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, personally attended the national video conference on ensuring the delivery of housing held in Beijing on the 17th. At this conference, the latest attitude of the top management was conveyed:
Deeply understand the people's nature and politics of real estate work, continue to adhere to city-specific policies, do a good job in the risk disposal of unfinished commercial housing, and solidly promote key tasks such as ensuring the delivery of housing and digesting the stock of commercial housing.
What do you mean by people's nature and politics? This has taken real estate work to a new level.
The digestion of the stock of commercial housing is also included in the key work together with the disposal of unfinished buildings and the delivery of housing, and a series of blockbuster actions at the level of "Wang Bang" followed.
The central bank and the housing and urban-rural development department personally went down and lit three cannon battles for the property market in one go:
First, with a decapitation!
The minimum down payment ratio for the first home commercial loan is adjusted to not less than 15%; The minimum down payment ratio for second home commercial loans is adjusted to not less than 25%.
Second, cut interest rates!
The lower limit of the interest rate policy for commercial personal housing loans for the first and second houses at the national level will be abolished. Theoretically, it can even be "0 interest rate". The CPF interest rate has also been lowered accordingly.
Third, destock!
The central bank announced that it will set up a 300 billion yuan affordable housing re-loan to support local state-owned enterprises to purchase completed and unsold commercial housing at a reasonable price for use as affordable housing for sale or rent.
Three ultimates that are deadly.
Take out any of them, and it's all an epic nuclear bomb ultimate. The effect of superimposing is a bit unimaginable. Here's how I feel:
The horn of the decisive battle sounded. This round of bailouts ushered in the endgame.
These "big moves" are very targeted, let's take a look at the first one:
With decapitation!
The minimum down payment ratio for the first home commercial loan is adjusted to not less than 15%; The minimum down payment ratio for second home commercial loans is adjusted to not less than 25%.
You know, this level of concession is absolutely unprecedented. Even in 2008 and 2016, the "lower limit" of the first home loan interest rate was 20%.
Adjustments to the proportion of previous down payments
Theoretically, a mansion with a total price of 10 million now only needs 1.5 million for a down payment! The down payment ratio has been reduced, which means that the house that was previously out of reach can now be obtained.
The problem of the threshold for getting on the bus was solved, but a new problem arose: the debt became high.
Let's do a simple calculation: a house with a total price of 3 million,
The down payment is 900,000 yuan, the loan is 2.1 million yuan, the total interest is 1.3329 million yuan, and the monthly payment is 9535.76 yuan. (30-year equal principal and interest, the interest rate is 3.59% at the average rate of the first mainstream mortgage in 100 cities in March, the same below)
The down payment was 450,000 yuan, and the loan soared to 2.55 million yuan, with a total interest of 1.6185 million yuan and a monthly payment of 11,579.13 yuan.
The total interest is nearly 300,000 yuan more, and the monthly payment is 2,000 yuan more, and Haidilao is reluctant to eat.
People don't buy houses, in essence, they are afraid of increasing leverage and going into debt, and they will not be able to repay the loan in the future.
Even if you dare to buy it, the bank may not dare to borrow it. The monthly payment is so high, and the bank is afraid that you will cut off the payment.
So, the second big move followed by the down payment and launched:
Lower interest rates and bring down the cost of loans!
In accordance with the latest regulations of the central bank, the lower limit of the interest rate policy for commercial personal housing loans for the first and second houses at the national level will be abolished.
Theoretically it can even be "0 interest rate"!
In recent years, the most worrying thing for banks is that they can't release the money in their hands. I believe that everyone has received a lot of loan sales calls.
At the end of March this year, household deposits in the national banking system reached 146.4 trillion yuan. The balance of bank wealth management products has also reached about 28 trillion.
There are as many as 170 trillion yuan of funds, which do not consume or invest, and sleep in bank accounts every day.
In addition, banks also have one more "heart disease": the tide of prepayment is surging and there is an intensifying momentum.
Since the release of personal housing loan data in 2004, the balance of personal housing loans showed negative growth for the first time last year.
In 2023, among the six major state-owned banks, the balance of personal housing loans of the five major banks, ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, CCB and Bank of Communications, all decreased last year, with a total decrease of 592.854 billion yuan.
The balance of personal housing loans of the Agricultural Bank of China decreased by 175.781 billion yuan last year, a year-on-year decrease of 3.29%, the largest reduction.
After the "cancellation of the lower limit", in order to compete for the mortgage amount, the price war is estimated to be unavoidable.
I heard that there are commercial banks in Guangzhou that have given an interest rate of 3 points, which is far lower than the mainstream 3.85%.
The money in the bank does not fall from the sky, and when the interest rate on loans falls, the interest on deposits also falls.
Previously, Zhongrong Huixin Futures Research Report said that the market expects that in the first half of 2024, large state-owned banks and joint-stock banks may usher in the first round of deposit "interest rate cuts" this year, with a reduction of 10 basis points to 15 basis points.
The trend is already clear that keeping money in the bank is becoming less and less valuable.
If the money is not in the bank, where can it be placed? A lot of people are going to face this problem.
The third big move, the national team will get off the field to collect the storage room!
Whether it's lowering the down payment or lowering the interest rate, the purpose is the same, so that more people can afford to buy a house.
Whether you can afford it is one thing, and whether you are willing to buy it is another, and it is mainly a matter of faith.
Confidence consists of two aspects, confidence in oneself and confidence in housing prices. The key lies in the latter.
Even if the future job and income are not certain, but the house price has been rising, I believe that many people will smash the pot and sell iron. Human nature is like that.
Whether real estate can be stabilized or not, the core lies in whether housing prices can be stabilized. Therefore, the national team's collection of storage rooms is the most direct and easy to play in "stabilizing housing prices".
According to public reports, the central bank will set up a 300 billion yuan affordable housing refinancing with an interest rate of 1.75% and a term of 1 year. Encourage and guide financial institutions to follow the principles of marketization and rule of law to support local state-owned enterprises to purchase completed and unsold commercial housing at reasonable prices for use as affordable housing for sale or rent.
It is worth mentioning that the interest rate of this loan is 1.75%, which means that the rental return of the acquisition target is 1.75%.
After nearly two years of declining housing prices, houses in many cities have met this standard.
According to reports, financial institutions can refinance according to 60% of the loan, which is expected to drive 500 billion yuan of bank loans.
With the standard of 1 million sets, it can store 500,000 sets. Based on a set of 70 square meters, 35 million square meters. The area of commercial housing for sale in the country is about 75,000 square meters.
That's probably only about 5%.
The volume of 500 billion yuan is not big, it is not small, it is certain that this money cannot be covered from first-tier cities to third- and fourth-tier cities like the monetization funds of shantytown reform back then, and housing prices will rise again.
Since only a few cities have access to targeted blood transfusions. So, who can stand out?
A clue: the purpose of the storage house is to be used as a placement type or a rental type of affordable housing.
Last year, the central bank launched a 100 billion yuan "rental housing loan support plan", which selected eight cities across the country to carry out pilot projects to support housing rental institutions to purchase stock housing in batches for use as affordable rental housing, and arranged support loans on a pilot basis.
The eight pilot cities are:
Fuzhou, Tianjin, Chongqing, Chengdu, Changchun, Qingdao, Jinan, Zhengzhou.
The features are actually quite obvious.
On the one hand, the pilot cities, except for Chengdu, have been "not very competitive" in recent years.
Even including Chengdu, there are high inventories and slow destocking.
Qingdao's decontamination cycle even exceeded 2 years, up to 29 months.
On the other hand, they are the backbone of the second only to the head city, and the city's energy level and economic strength are not bad.
There are provincial capitals (Fuzhou, Changchun, Jinan, Zhengzhou, Chengdu), municipalities directly under the central government (Tianjin, Chongqing), and sub-provincial cities (Qingdao).
Compared with third- and fourth-tier cities, these cities have been experiencing population inflows, and the demand for housing has not shrunk in a large area, and the property market is not hopeless.
The path to the next step is already clear:
On the one hand, the national team will buy the stock of housing on the market, and on the other hand, the local government will cooperate to reduce the supply of residential land.
Slowly bring supply and demand back to normal levels, and then stabilize housing prices.
The U.S. buys back the stock market, Japan buys back the bond market, China buys back houses, and the "three big bubbles in the world" all have their own solutions.
After the policy was introduced, what was the real reaction of home buyers?
Unlike the immediate reaction of the stock market, buyers also need a chain of conduction, time for everyone, and. Be sure to cherish it.
What is the reaction of most people? It's complicated.
A peer "complained" that he was going to take the customer to see the house this afternoon, but the customer brushed the new policy and immediately decided to postpone the house purchase plan.
Wait, what if the first payment and interest rate will be lower?
The friends around me, after being bombarded by a series of bailout combinations, actually felt more deeply when they bought a house than when they didn't buy a house.
My colleague A, who has repaid the mortgage for a few years, lamented: When will my commercial mortgage be converted to a provident fund loan?
On the other side, colleague B complained: Don't patronize those who haven't bought a house, when will the 4-point stock mortgage be reduced?
It is foreseeable that these groups that are not "favored" have purchased houses and will be in a hurry to do two things next:
1. Prepayment
2. Listing for sale
It can be seen that the supply in the market will continue to increase in the future. However, "trade-in" is being promoted. State-owned assets will purchase second-hand houses and accurately introduce purchasing power into the new housing market.
The market will change gradually.
In the past few days, many people have noticed that the old and small prices in big cities, which were originally at the bottom of the property market contempt chain, have gradually fallen into place, and some people have begun to enter the market one after another. Purchasing power is slowly being unleashed.
This also means that the chain of property replacement is about to start to turn again.
Real estate is no longer a simple economic issue, but extends to the zz height. The above attitude is very clear, the property market must rise.
The bailout is about to turn the page. It is likely that it will not be long before we will be back to the era of house grabbing.