In an earlier interview with US media, Modi stressed that the stability of India-China relations is of paramount importance, and that the two sides should resolve the outstanding border issue as soon as possible through diplomatic and military contacts in order to "restore peace". Based on this statement, many people believe that this is a manifestation of India's "concessions" to China, and that the Sino-Indian border dispute may soon be over. But that's not the case.
[Modi's attitude towards China seems to have improved]
A few days ago, Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar refuted rumors that Modi's attitude had "softened", saying that Modi's statement only provided a "big picture" view on the Sino-Indian border issue, and had no specific connection with the border negotiations between the two countries. As for how to normalize China-India relations, Jaishankar pointed out that resolving the border issue is the key, and the core of the current dispute between China and India on the border issue is "patrol rights and patrol capabilities".
Combined with the content of the Sino-Indian border negotiations in the past four years, it is clear that the so-called "patrol rights" are involved in the Tiannan River Valley. The meaning of Jaishankar's words is clear: if China is really "sincere" in resolving the border issue, it must make concessions and agree to allow Indian troops to enter the Tiannan Valley area for "patrols".
Located in the westernmost part of the Sino-Indian border, the Tiannan River Valley region, known to Indians as the Dapusang Plain, has been a continental territory since ancient times. The region is not only close to the CPEC's main transport route to China, but also close to the Krechen River Valley, close to the Siachen Glacier, where India and Pakistan once faced off. India believes that China may build roads and other infrastructure in the area to connect the Siachen Glacier and the Korechen Valley, and then send troops to directly intervene in the conflict between India and Pakistan in the event of a confrontation between India and Pakistan, posing a threat to India's homeland security.
[Jaishankar shouted to let the Indian army enter Chinese territory to patrol]
Over the past few decades, the Indian army has made several attempts to patrol the Tien Nan Valley region and has had several confrontations with the Chinese military, such as the famous "tent standoff" in 2013; Around 2020, the Indian army crossed the border between the two countries and entered the Tiannan River valley more and more frequently, and we also strengthened our control over the area, completely "blocking" the path of provocation by the Indian army.
In the following four years, when China and India held military-level talks, India did not give up its coveting of the Tianna River Valley, and more than once demanded that China withdraw from the Tiannan Valley and open the Daping Pass so that the Indian army could enter the "patrol"; There were even proposals for "joint patrols" and "staggered patrols" with the Chinese military, but these proposals were firmly rejected by the Chinese side.
Today, most of the disputed areas along the Sino-Indian border have basically entered a phase of stability with the two sides agreeing to withdraw troops and maintain their distance. However, there are still disputes in places such as the Tiannan River Valley and Hot Springs, and no consensus can be reached. The key point is that India has completely ignored China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and has even adopted a tough and arrogant attitude in an attempt to occupy China's territory, which is now illustrated by the absurd proposal of the Indian foreign minister.
[Frequent border clashes between China and India]
Judging from the attitudes of Modi and Jaishankar, India's current attitude towards China is very complex: on the one hand, India is economically inseparable from China. According to data released by an Indian think tank, the economic and trade scale between China and India will reach US$118.4 billion in fiscal years 2023-2024, which is higher than that of the United States by US$100 million, becoming India's largest trading partner.
It is worth mentioning that India's imports of Chinese goods account for the vast majority of the trade between the two countries. It can be said that from infrastructure construction to daily consumer goods, Chinese goods have penetrated into all levels of Indian society, providing important material support for the operation of India's economy. In addition, Chinese companies have invested in many important projects in India, which have not only promoted India's infrastructure construction, but also helped to promote India's industrialization process, creating a large number of jobs for it and greatly alleviating India's employment pressure.
On the other hand, India is "hostile" to China, especially on the border issue. The legacy of colonialism is mixed with nationalist sentiments and the Sino-Indian race for great power, making the border issue a psychological complex in India.
[India has a large demand for Chinese goods]
"Great power mentality" has been ingrained in India's national philosophy since independence, but the 1962 fiasco made India aware of China's strength, and since then, India has seen competition with China as part of its national strategy. At the geopolitical level, China's relationship with Pakistan and its neighboring countries, such as Myanmar, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, have been interpreted as a kind of "encirclement" in India's eyes.
From an economic point of view, India's opening up and reform is more than a decade later than China's. After more than 30 years of rapid growth, China's economy has far surpassed India's, and although both countries are members of the BRICS, India's overall economic level is not as good as China's. All of this has greatly deepened India's frustration, which has become more aggressive on the border issue in an attempt to demonstrate India's "oppressiveness" toward China.
However, India needs to understand that this typical "zero-sum game" mentality is not beneficial to its own development, and blindly displaying a tough attitude on the border issue will not only not enhance its international influence and oppression, but will push itself into the vortex of conflict, and the final outcome will only outweigh the losses.