WuXi AppTec has been very popular these days, because on May 15, the United States passed the "H.R. 8333 Draft".
In the past few months, people have been asking me what I think of WuXi AppTec, in fact, I have analyzed it several times before, and I have also talked about the fundamental logic of the CXO industry in detail.
But when it comes to the question of the United States, to be honest, I really don't know, I don't know what those people will think and do.
In fact, this kind of thing has gone beyond the scope of conventional business, and is the result of a combination of many factors, and if the United States really wants to make any moves, whether it is justified or excused, it does not matter, what matters is whether they have this demand.
So even WuXi AppTec itself has no control over the development of the situation.
The bill is to remove the previous allegations against WuXi AppTec, but it still retains "biotech companies of concern".
That is, this matter is not over, anyway, they just want to grasp the initiative, always hang a sword over their heads, and talk when they are in a good mood, and they can't say if they are in a bad mood one day.
I will take a closer look at the revised new bill, which requires U.S. companies to complete the separation from our CXO companies by 2032, which means that they cannot do business with our CXO companies.
It was supposed to be cut this year, but now it is equivalent to a delay of 8 years, which is also something that cannot be helped.
Because new drug research and development is a long-term process, the reason why our CXO industry is developing so fast is because we have the best "engineer dividend" in the world.
We have enough highly educated talents, and they are cheap enough, and conventional pharmaceutical research and development has technical content, but it is not particularly high.
To put it simply, the principle is that a framework has been set, but there are many combinations in this framework, and which combination is the best and the best effect must be tested to know all of them.
Therefore, engineers are constantly arranging new combinations every day, and then getting the experimental results, and finally comparing and choosing the best one, which is the prototype of the new drug.
There are only a few countries with the largest population in the world, and then the number of highly educated talents is also more than us.
The scientific research and technology in the United States is powerful, but the labor cost is expensive, so those pharmaceutical giants keep the research and development of core products to themselves, and the conventional research and development is outsourced to our CXO companies.
But even if it is conventional research and development, there is no 5 years or 8 years, and it cannot be tested.
So if we break off right now, of course our CXO companies will suffer, but their pharmaceutical companies will also suffer heavy losses.
They also interviewed more than 100 pharmaceutical companies about this issue, and the results showed that 70% of the companies said that if they wanted to switch, it would take more than six years, and 30% said that it would take more than eight years.
So the new bill has an eight-year deadline.
If we do this, our CXO industry may be a bit miserable, although the business that has been executed in the past few years can still be maintained, as for the new business, it will have to be seen later.
So why is this happening?
If you pay attention to the international economy, you may know that after our rapid development in recent years, there are already seven industries leading the world, while the United States has only three, namely information technology, biomedicine and aircraft.
If the advantages of these three pieces are gone, then there is nothing to do with them.
So they want to solve this problem from the source, and the upstream of information technology is, of course, semiconductors, and you see what kind of sanctions have been imposed on us.
Of course, the upstream of biomedicine is R&D, but as the division of labor and collaboration become more and more clear and mature, the CXO industry has indeed greatly improved the efficiency of new drug R&D.
But at the same time, it also makes new technologies inevitably exposed quickly, resulting in their technical advantages becoming smaller and smaller, and if they continue like this, they will definitely be surpassed by us.
So there is no way, even if doing so will greatly increase their R&D costs, they can only do this.
But for pharmaceutical companies, it must be resistant.
At present, the R&D cost of a new drug is at least more than 2 billion US dollars, and it is still rising year by year.
So since this bill came out, the first to come out against it is their own pharmaceutical companies.
Of course, WuXi AppTec is even more opposed.
But there is no way, the angle is different, and the way of thinking about the problem is different.
WuXi AppTec, as a leader in the CXO industry, is naturally at the center of this vortex.
However, I don't think there is a need to be too pessimistic, first of all, the CXO industry group led by WuXi AppTec is not so vulnerable, although there are indeed many businesses from the United States, and the performance will definitely be affected.
However, the globalization of anything cannot be overly dependent on a certain region, otherwise how can it be called globalization?
WuXi AppTec has been deploying overseas for a long time, and I remember that at least two years before this happened, WuXi was building factories in many countries.
The global pharmaceutical industry is not the same as the United States.
Besides, so many of their pharmaceutical companies can really afford this high cost? What if I can't bear it?
In the past, there was a "medical winter" in the United States.
I make a bold guess that if the United States really wants to go its own way, the competitiveness of their pharmaceutical companies will inevitably decline, and the rise of medical technology in other parts of the world will inevitably accelerate, such as ourselves.
At that time, will the current American pharmaceutical companies still obediently stay in their day?
Anything can happen in 8 years, isn't it?
So this matter will have a great impact and the risk will be great, but there is no need to think too much, because it is useless to think about it.
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