Yesterday's market is worth talking about, so I still share my review in the community yesterday, the original text is as follows:
The market is very interesting today.
If you've been keeping an eye on the market, you might be confused.
Because you'll find out how the market is always slow to react.
Next, I'll give you a good disassembly.
Overall, it's time for you to adjust your position and hold on to your chips.
Don't always think about whether you want to sell it when you return to your original value, or whether you want to sell it if you make a profit of 10%.
Whether you want to sell it or not has nothing to do with whether you return your capital or not, and how much money you make.
Remember what I said: most people can withstand the fall, but not the rise.
First, the position structure leads to a slow market and half a beat
In the past two days, the policy of fermenting real estate has been fermented.
All kinds of funds are secretly adjusting their positions.
Among them, the most influential is the public offering.
Because the allocation ratio of public offerings in the real estate chain is the lowest in history.
When the policy big move was made, the public offering began to quickly adjust the position.
Since the position of the public offering is very heavy, the position adjustment will be sold first.
Therefore, we can see that the sector with heavy public offerings has encountered a lot of pressure.
Furthermore, a large number of public offerings were rebalanced at the same time, which suppressed the entire market, including the real estate sector itself.
Therefore, we can see that although the real estate sector has risen sharply in the past few days, the intraday volatility is very large.
In fact, the stabilization of real estate is good for the overall index.
And we didn't see a general rally in the first two days.
The reason lies in the position structure of the public offering.
Today finally ushered in the belated general rise.
At noon today, a policy move was made.
1. There is no lower limit on the interest rate of commercial loans;
2. Reduction of interest rate on provident fund loans;
3. The down payment ratio is reduced to 20%;
4. State collection and storage.
After the afternoon open, the real estate sector rose in a straight line;
However, other non-real estate chain sectors fell first.
For example, the CSI 300 falls first and then pulls up.
The first decline is caused by the public offering repositioning, and then the pull up is brought about by the entry of incremental funds.
Since there are many similar liability problems in A-shares, I often see big positives coming.
But the market took the plunge first. It made everyone look confused.
Moreover, since private equity is aware of the debt problem of public offering, it will also make good use of it for short-term arbitrage.
To put it bluntly, the market is still too fond of internal friction.
Second, the national team continues to suppress volatility
Yesterday, a total of 2.5 billion ETFs were outflowed from the national team's heavy positions.
It's clear that it's suppressing volatility and keeping institutional and speculative money from cutting leeks.
It's the same today, but it's a little different.
At the opening of morning and afternoon trading, the market was suppressed by the selling pressure of the public offering.
At this time, the national team took action to protect the disk. One piece of evidence is that the CSI 300 ETF continues to be at a premium.
This is a sign that there is a lot of money that continues to buy.
But in the afternoon, when the market funds started to go long, the premium rate turned negative.
It shows that there is a big amount of money being sold.
However, after 2 points, the premium rate continued to return to positive, and the national team began to pull again.
The national team deliberately keeps this mystery and randomness in order to combat hype and speculation.
For a long time to come, it will be very difficult to play speculation.
Why?
Because speculation requires high volatility and a certain amount of control.
And now both of these things are crushed by the national team.
When to pull up, it is not speculative funds that have the final say.
The kind of money that is tossed back and forth will eventually find itself lonely.
Not only did he not make any money, but he also lost a lot.
Everyone must understand that beta is the enemy of alpha.
As long as the CSI 300 continues to beta, it will be difficult for these institutions to make alpha.
But beta rewards those who hold good stocks and mainstream indices for a long time.
After the operation of the national team, Shanghai and Shenzhen rose 0.32% this week and stood on the long-term moving average group of the weekly chart.
See, the national team has always created a stable sense of happiness for the CSI 300.
It will replace the property market as the best core asset in China.
Third, risk appetite is rising
Bond rates have risen sharply today.
30-year Treasury futures almost hit a new intraday low.
The main reason is that the real estate policy has brought about a rebound in risk appetite.
Today's Poly limit is so far from the annual line.
The third signal of the stabilization of the property market is about to be issued.
I've been helping you keep track of the first signal that the property market has stabilized.
And I mentioned to you that if you want to stabilize the property market, you don't necessarily have to buy the real estate sector.
You can use insurance instead.
If the recovery of real estate is not as expected, insurance can still rise.
If it exceeds expectations, insurance will rise even more in the future.
Today, the insurance station reached a new high on the previous year.
Anyway, I continued to buy insurance when I was injured by mistake. I've never believed in ghost stories.
The stabilization of the property market is also suppressing the speculation of the theme.
In the future, we will continue to track the changes in several interest rates to capture the changes in M1 and the velocity of money.
When investing, you can't look at the lagging data that the public knows.
Fourth, Hong Kong stocks hit new highs
Today, the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Technology and China Concept continued to reach new highs.
The Chinese ETF is about to challenge the highs of early 2023.
Many people have long been unable to bear the rise and get off the bus, and the result is that the rise has been non-stop, and they are angry.
This is normal, after a few tosses, many people are already afraid to have imagination about the stock market.
Everyone has reflexively thought that A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are a piece of.
But... You know, when everybody wants to sell... You know.
In fact, as a mature investor, you have already thought about what to sell before buying.
There is no absolutely right answer to sell.
But the investment strategy must be planned in advance. Otherwise, under the influence of fluctuations and emotions, no matter how you operate, it will be wrong.
Most people play clever swings in the early days of the rally.
As a result, I picked up the sesame seeds and lost the watermelon.
You don't need to refute it, this is a fact.
Otherwise, everyone will make money.
According to our strategy, we just need to adjust the appropriate positions and follow the fluctuations.
It doesn't matter if it goes up or down, it can make money in the end.
Where to go and reduce the position again, I will remind in the group and give a few alternatives.
It's good for everyone to choose according to their own situation.
What's right for you is the best. Don't go for perfection.
Fifth, see the general trend clearly
At present, the market of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks mainly depends on the rebalancing of the savings rate between China and the United States.
The stabilization and recovery of Chinese assets will drive the return of funds in the US stocks.
Hong Kong stocks have risen sharply before, and some of them have returned.
Next is the A-share catch-up and the stabilization of the property market, and then continue to return.
In particular, it is very important for the property market to stabilize.
Because this has the greatest impact on risk appetite.
Now it's up to you to see how the pace is.
The United States is now also very hopeful that Chinese assets will stabilize and rebound in order to ease their inflationary pressures.
After Hong Kong stocks rose sharply last month, the US CPI fell slightly. This is no coincidence.
Didn't I say it two days ago?
Can't hold it is a puppy!
Once a trend is formed, it is self-reinforcing.
Until most people can't wait to rush in.
Is this the time when most people can't wait to rush in?
I'm afraid that's exactly when most people want to take the ball home.
The reward is voluntary, and 1 cent is silently supported, haha!
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