How much impact does the negative population growth and land finance have on the Chinese people?
Just look at three recent events. First of all, many young people have begun to refuse to pay social security, or even abandon insurance. Secondly, the price of high-speed rail has risen, and our social public costs have begun to increase. Finally, the property market began to clear the second wave of inventory, and new first-line houses such as Hangzhou and Nanjing can send hukou, which also makes China's hukou system, which has been popular for thousands of years, exist in name only.
These three things may seem completely unrelated, but in the final analysis, they are all the same thing, and the macroeconomic transformation after the end of population decline and land finance has brought about a change in people's mindsets, and this adjustment has only just begun.
We just wrote an article a few days ago about the depreciation of the hukou, so let's talk about the price increase of high-speed rail first.
According to the official announcement, the fares of the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway, Shanghai-Kunming passenger special line and other lines will be adjusted from June this year, with an increase of nearly 20%. Specifically, the second-class ticket price from Wuhan to Guangzhou South will be raised from 463.5 yuan to 553 yuan, an increase of 89.5 yuan, and the second-class ticket price from Hangzhou East to Changsha South will also rise from 405 yuan to 485 yuan. Such price adjustments are not limited to a single route, but have created a broad wave of price increases.
This fluctuation in price increases is not only a local phenomenon in the field of transportation, but also profoundly reflects the multiple pressures of the mainland's current macroeconomic and social development. Against the backdrop of rising prices for basic services such as water, electricity, and gas, the adjustment of high-speed rail fares may herald an increase in the cost of more public services such as transportation and medical care.
In addition, this trend of price increases may also trigger changes in residents' consumption psychology, accelerate the increase of other living costs, and then have an impact on the overall economic operation.
Next, we will focus on social security today.
I found that many young people nowadays would rather see a doctor without medical insurance, have no pension after retirement, and have to stop paying social security.
In the first quarter of 2023 alone, the number of insured people in Shanghai decreased by 106,800, which is still less, official data shows that in 2023, the number of abandoned pension insurance in mainland China will reach 38 million, and the proportion of flexible employment is not high. According to the data of the National Health Insurance Bureau, in 2022, there will be more than 200 million flexible employees in the mainland, but only 1/4 of them have paid social security.
You know, social security is a benefit that benefits everyone, so why don't so many people pay?
First of all, for friends who are flexibly employed, it is too difficult for them to pay a social security in a first-tier city like Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou.
At present, the social security payment period in mainland China is relatively long, and the pension insurance needs to be paid for 15 years, while the medical insurance requires women to pay for 20 years and men to pay for 25 years in order to enjoy lifelong protection after retirement. At present, the social insurance payment base in most provinces in the country has risen, taking Shanghai with the highest base as an example, according to the data released in July 2023, Shanghai's base has reached 12,183 yuan, that is, people who work and live in Shanghai must pay at least 2,558.5 yuan per month for social security expenses.
White-collar workers who work in regular companies only need to pay 880 yuan per month and 10,000 yuan a year to get a pension in Shanghai, and pay enough for 15 years, that is, 150,000 yuan.
What about friends who can be flexibly employed, they pay 2558.5 yuan per month, which is 30,000 yuan a year, and it will cost 460,000 yuan to pay for 15 years, which is 310,000 yuan more than normal employees to receive a pension in Shanghai, and it is difficult to earn it back after retirement.
Secondly, young people really can't afford to pay, and here we still take Shanghai as an example.
Among the 24.87 million people in Shanghai, about 10.85 million workers are workers, but the monthly salary of more than 10,000 yuan in Shanghai is not as easy as everyone thinks, not to talk about the average wage income, in fact, the median salary of more than 10 million workers in Shanghai is 6,906 yuan. This number is less than 7k, and at this salary level, even if you pay 14 months' salary, your annual income may not exceed 10w.
Some friends may not believe it, how can the salary of Shanghai Magic Capital be so low. Let me just say this, if you graduated from a bachelor's degree and joined an unknown company in Shanghai, the starting salary is about 6000; If you are not a college student, the salary will be lower, and you will work as a general worker in a factory, about 5000~6000 a month; If you have a skilled electrician or carpenter, you can get almost five or six hundred a day, but it will always be windy and rainy, and you don't have work every day. If you are a restaurant waiter or security guard, generally 4000 yuan a month is almost the same, if you want to be a cleaning aunt, the salary is lower, may not exceed 3000 yuan, of course, the waiter and security guard are basically food and accommodation.
So what about the courier guy we often see?
It shouldn't be a problem for them to earn seven or eight thousand a month, but it's still a bit difficult to get tens of thousands, because the delivery fee is less than before, and a bad review is basically in vain.
After talking about salary, let's take a look at the cost of living in Shanghai.
An ordinary single room in downtown Shanghai costs two or three thousand, and if you add social security, the minimum cost of living in downtown Shanghai is 7,000 a month, so many college students who have just come to Shanghai choose to share a bed in order to save money, that is, two people sleep in one bed, rent a room and a half, or live in Songjiang and Qingpu, spend 3 hours a day squeezing the subway bus, and exchange time for money.
You said that so many people can't even pay the rent, will he still pay social security for the future problems of buying a house, a car, and a child going to school in Shanghai? Definitely not.
In addition, there is a practical reason, the post-80s and post-90s are considering the issue of pension, while the post-00s and post-10s are considering "whether I am happy at the moment", rather than saving money to pay social security, it is better to use the funds for the enjoyment of the present, as for the future, it is still a long, long time later. So, most young people don't like to pay social security. As for the policy, needless to say, it is all about delaying retirement, if the future retirement age is delayed to 60, 65, or even 70 years old, then surrender and payment may become a common phenomenon.
That is to say, whether it is the price increase of high-speed rail, the depreciation of urban hukou, or the interruption of social security by young people, on the surface, it seems to be people's livelihood, but in fact it is an economic problem, which has also brought about a change in everyone's consumption concept, from paying more attention to the packaging of foreign debt to paying more attention to cost-effectiveness and pragmatism.
However, for social security, although the suspension of social security may reduce economic pressure in the short term, in the long run, it may affect the protection of personal rights and interests in retirement, medical care and other aspects. The government and all sectors of society are also actively taking measures to raise awareness of social security and optimize the social security system to encourage more people to participate in and continue to pay social security.
At the same time, we should also be more tolerant and understanding of young people.