Overnight, the spot fell slightly, hitting an intraday high of $2,397.32 and a low of $2,370.79, and finally closed at $2,376.07. In today's European session, gold fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently hovering around $2,384.
The king is coming!
Overnight, U.S. stocks closed slightly lower, and the Dow briefly broke through the 40,000-point mark intraday. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Index, Nasdaq Index, and S&P 500 Index fell 0.10%, 0.26%, and 0.21%, respectively.
The trend of U.S. stocks was mainly affected by the hawkish speech of the Federal Reserve and U.S. economic data.
In remarks earlier last night, three senior Fed officials – Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, New York Fed President John Williams, and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barking – all issued a common caution that interest rates are expected to remain elevated for an extended period of time. The statements of these officials clearly put pressure on the market's optimism and temporarily dampened the upward momentum of the stock market.
It's worth noting that while Mester has the right to vote on policy decisions this year, she will be stepping down at the end of June, and the Fed's next interest rate decision is scheduled for June 11 and 12, so this will also be the last one she attends.
In terms of economic data, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States was 222,000 in the week ended May 11, down from 231,000 in the previous reading, indicating the potential strength of the U.S. labor market.
According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now pricing in a 70% chance that the Fed will cut rates for the first time in September, down from 73% a day earlier.
At present, in addition to the impact of economic data and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the financial situation of U.S. listed companies is also one of the important disturbance factors.
At present, the 2024 Q1 earnings season of U.S. stocks is coming to an end, and many U.S. companies have performed better than expected in the first quarter. Statistics show that 79% of S&P 500 companies beat expectations in the first quarter, compared to 76% in the previous quarter.
The better-than-expected financial performance of most companies has strengthened the market's expectations for the future earnings prospects of U.S. companies, which is also positive for the U.S. stock market. With the support of multiple positive factors, some international institutions took the lead in raising their expectations for the trend of U.S. stocks.
Speaking of perfect stocks, let's take a look at how the A-share market is performing today?
Today, the A-share market staged a major counteroffensive. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3154.03 points, up 1.01%; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.1%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.12%.
In the market, 4,085 stocks closed in the red, 152 were flat, and 1,124 were green.
In particular, real estate stocks collectively soared, and Shenwan rose by more than 7%. Among the large-capitalization stocks, Poly Development and Vanke A, two giants of 100 billion yuan, both have daily limits; China Merchants Shekou approached the daily limit, closing up 9.3%.
Is the real estate sector rising this time, mainly because of the good news in the property market one after another.
At noon today, the People's Bank of China issued three articles in succession, related to a number of adjustments in the property market:
- Lower the down payment! The minimum down payment ratio for the first home commercial loan is adjusted to not less than 15%, and the minimum down payment ratio for the second home commercial loan is adjusted to not less than 25%
- Lower interest rates! The interest rate of the housing provident fund has been lowered to 2.85%!
- The lower limit of the interest rate policy for commercial personal housing loans for the first and second houses at the national level will be abolished.
Whether it is the previous national team entering the market to collect houses, or today's three kings, such a blowout is the policy, which is to change the liquidity of the real estate market and curb the market risk caused by the rapid decline in housing prices.
It is also worth mentioning about A-shares that the A-share giants were suddenly forced short at an epic level.
It is reported that IXM, a trading company under A-share listed China Molybdenum, holds a large short position in New York copper futures, or may suffer heavy losses. Affected by this news, CMOC's stock price fell sharply on May 16, and once plummeted by more than 6% in intraday trading.
In this regard, late at night on May 16, CMOC issued a clarification announcement saying that its wholly-owned subsidiary, IXM, is a world-class metal trading platform and does not engage in simple speculative transactions. IXM is engaged in cross-market, inter-period, cross-variety and other hedging and arbitrage trading strategies, and the risk is completely controllable.
Global commodities trading giants Trafigura and Exxon are trying to buy physical copper to settle their large short positions in the U.S. CME, according to other people familiar with the matter. In response, Trafigura acknowledged that it will ship more physical copper to the United States.
In addition to this, investors need to pay attention to the news on the international situation.
The Israeli army was accidentally injured by its own shells!
On the 16th local time, the Israel Defense Forces announced that on the 15th, a serious accidental injury occurred in Jebaliya, northern Gaza Strip, resulting in the death of 5 Israeli soldiers and the wounding of 7 others, of which 3 were seriously injured, all of whom served in the 202nd Battalion of the Paratrooper Brigade.
It is reported that Israeli military planes again attacked many areas of Gaza the night before, including Gaza City, the Jabaliya refugee camp, and the al-Nussailit refugee camp.
In addition to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the Red Sea crisis continues and intensifies.
On the 16th local time, the U.S. Central Command said in a statement that the U.S. Navy destroyer USS Mason intercepted an anti-ship missile over the Red Sea, which was launched by the Houthis in Yemen.
On the same day, Yemen's Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said in a televised address that the group would continue to expand its strike and that all ships heading to Israeli ports would be targeted by the Houthis.
Jintou.com: 5.17 gold trend analysis
From a technical point of view, gold is currently in the process of 4-hour shocks and upwards, and to break this structure, it must first fall below the 2335 position.
Image source: Jintou.com
The trend of the daily level is stronger, and if the market falls below the position of about 2335, then the market is expected to usher in the adjustment of the daily level, but under the premise of the current strong trend, we can only pay attention to whether this trend will be formed, rather than rashly shorting. This point is actually consistent with the top divergence structure of the daily level, and it depends on whether it can be formed.
If you don't trade during the day, the market has certain variables, but the upward opportunity is greater, so pay more attention and don't do it.