#头条创作挑战赛#
After the reform, drugs are sold from pharmaceutical factories to first-level distributors to issue invoices once, and dealers sell to hospitals to issue invoices again, which reduces the profit share of second-level and third-level distributors, thereby reducing drug prices
As a result, with the implementation of the "two-invoice system", the net sales business will increase, while the transfer business will decline - from the data, it also supports this conclusion:
In 2017, the growth rate of the net sales of pharmaceutical circulation above designated size in mainland China reached 17.3%, an increase of 5.5% year-on-year, showing an accelerated growth trend.
The sales of the transfer business decreased by 3.9%, and the growth rate decreased by 12.3% year-on-year
In this case, due to the impact of the "two-invoice system", the year-on-year growth rate of the allocation business in 2017 was only 2.7%, and the growth rate decreased by 15.1% year-on-year, which lowered the revenue growth rate and affected the same industry
The unfavorable factors of the industry not only led to a decline in the growth rate of its revenue and net profit, but also increased its accounts receivable year by year
In 2011, accounts receivable was 11.578 billion yuan, and in 2017, it rose to 32.485 billion yuan, an increase of 180.58%.
At the same time, the inventory turnover ratio also declined slightly, from 7.03 in 2011 to 6.78
The slowdown in the accounts receivable ratio + the slowdown in the inventory turnover rate led to a tightening of its net cash flow from operating activities.
Okay, so at this point, we have to move on to two more difficult questions:
1) In the end, what will be the impact of medical insurance fee control, the two-invoice system, and the recently introduced volume procurement policy, and how big will the impact be?
2) When will its growth rate pick up?
After careful analysis of the three major policies of medical insurance cost control, two-invoice system, and volume procurement, in fact, they are in the same vein, which is to reduce the increase in drug prices brought about by the multi-invoice system, cut off the circulation link, reduce the price increase of drugs, and reduce the burden of medical insurance
Among them, the volume procurement that caused huge waves before is actually the ultimate state of policy evolution, which can be popularly understood as the "one-vote system"
That is, hospitals or medical insurance bureaus directly purchase from pharmaceutical companies, squeezing the intermediate circulation links, and pharmaceutical circulation companies can only be reduced to distributors in the end, and the right to speak will be further weakened
The impact of these three policies on pharmaceutical circulation enterprises is that they will intensify the merger and integration of the industry, the big fish eat the small fish, and the big pharmaceutical distributors will integrate the second and third level distributors, and the market concentration will be improved
From the perspective of the concentration of the national pharmaceutical circulation industry, in 2016, the sales of the top three pharmaceutical circulation enterprises in the country accounted for about 35%.
Compared with the mature market in the United States, the sales proportion of the top three pharmaceutical distribution companies has reached a very strange number: 96% (Maxson, Meiyuan Bergen, and Cardinal Health)
From this point of view, we can judge an important industry trend - if we want to study the domestic pharmaceutical circulation field in the future, we can only study the first-line giants
In addition, through the industry reshuffle so that small and medium-sized distributors withdraw, or be eaten, while large distributors can enjoy the dividends brought by the increase in concentration, it can be predicted that the future of large distributors in this field, there is still a lot of room for growth
Take Fujian Province, the earliest implementation of the two-invoice system in the mainland, as an example: Fujian Province began to implement the two-invoice system in 2011, and the number of distribution enterprises in the province has been reduced from more than 200 to the current 62, which is only 30% of the original, and the concentration of CR5 in the pharmaceutical circulation industry in Fujian Province has also reached 65%
It is conceivable that with the gradual completion of the integration of business in the pharmaceutical circulation industry, coupled with the continuous implementation of mergers and acquisitions of leading companies, the impact of the "two-invoice system" on these head companies will gradually weaken, and then the upward channel will be restored.
Predict the follow-up and listen to the next breakdown
It does not constitute any investment advice, the stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market