Gold: The recently released US non-seasonally adjusted CPI in April recorded an annual rate of 3.4%, basically in line with expectations; The seasonally adjusted CPI recorded 0.3% m/m in April, slightly lower than the market expectation of 0.4%, indicating that the price level in the United States has retreated. In addition, the US retail sales report recorded a monthly rate of 0%, below the market expectation of 0.4%.
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States released overnight fell short of market expectations. The U.S. non-farm payrolls data released at the beginning of the month slowed down significantly, coupled with the recent inflation data that fell slightly, indicating that U.S. economic growth may slow, pushing up expectations that the Federal Reserve will start an early interest rate cut cycle, which may be positive for gold prices in the short term.
Technical: On the daily line, the market rose and fell back to close the long upper shadow K-line, and it is necessary to be alert to the risk of gold price correction in the short term. However, the market is still running above the 20-day moving average, and the bulls still have the advantage. During the day, pay attention to the first-line pressure of $2,400 above, and the first-line support of $2,360 below.
Gold price chart: Gold hourly chart
Oil: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu acknowledged that Israel has strained relations with its historical ally, the United States, over its military offensive against Rafah in the Gaza Strip. But for the sake of Israel's security, more precisely on the issue of Rafah, it is necessary to act. This means that it will not be easy for the geopolitical friction in the Middle East to cool down, which will provide support for oil prices to a certain extent.
On the supply and demand side, the market is pinning its hopes on OPEC+ to further extend the production cut agreement, which will provide support for oil prices in the short term. However, the U.S. economic data began to weaken, suggesting that it is not easy for oil demand to remain strong, which will limit the upside of oil prices, so it is more likely that oil prices will remain volatile in the short term.
Technicals: On the daily line, the market moved higher and closed positive on the previous trading day, indicating that short-term oil prices are relatively firm. However, the market has been at a relatively low level for many consecutive trading days, and it may continue in the short term. Pay attention to the first-line pressure of $80 above and the first-line support of $77 below.
Crude Oil Price Chart: Crude Oil Hourly Chart
Important Notice: The above content and views are provided by the think tank of the third-party cooperation platform and are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.