Xie Yifeng: The national team is down! The epic strongest bailout, real estate spring is coming!

Xie Yifeng

2024-05-17 18:09Posted in Guangdong China Urban Real Estate Research Institute President Creator in the field of real estate

Text/Xie Yifeng

Today, China's real estate ushered in a major turning point, the national team went down, and the four kings bombed the market in a row, ushering in the epic strongest bailout. It indicates that the real estate inflection point (upward) signal, the most dangerous and difficult moment for real estate companies has passed, and this year's golden nine and silver ten will be hot, and the market spring is coming.

As the author has been calling for before, the state should act in a timely manner in order to save real estate, stabilize the stock market, bond market, and property market, and stabilize the economy. The state must make big moves to turn the real estate crisis into safety, resolve the decline in housing prices, debt, guaranteed delivery, credit risks, and revitalize the real estate market.

Since last year and before May 17, the author has proposed a series of policies for the government to stabilize housing prices, ensure the delivery of housing, destock, and reduce debt risks, including canceling the lower limit of the national interest rate for the first and second home loans, and the policy of reducing the interest rate of the first and second sets of provident fund loans, and the policy of 15% down payment for the first house and 20% down payment for the second house.

The most important thing is to allow, encourage, and normalize local governments to acquire, collect, and store the idle stock of residential land and commercial housing inventory of real estate enterprises for affordable housing. Today, the whole country has done a good job in ensuring the delivery of housing video conferences, the central bank, and the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration have just implemented the real estate rescue policy.

First of all, I am quite disappointed that I have not seen the first-tier cities, Tianjin, Zhuhai and Hainan issue policies such as the full cancellation of purchase restrictions. Secondly, we do not see the tax policy of the finance and taxation departments for the first house of deed tax, stamp duty and value-added tax, the halving of the second house, and the decreasing tax policy of the third house.

It is expected that within this month or year, seven local governments in first-tier cities, Tianjin, Zhuhai and Hainan will issue policies to completely cancel purchase restrictions and other restrictive measures. Today or this week, the Ministry of Finance and Taxation issued a tax policy of exempting the first house from deed tax, stamp duty and value-added tax, halving the second house and decreasing the third house.

It is expected that today or this week and within this month, the RRR will be cut, and at the same time, the PSL quota will be increased, special loans and special project borrowings, special treasury bonds, corporate bonds, financial subsidies and appropriations will be accelerated, and the policy of expanding the scale of the white list of real estate projects will be implemented to support the three major projects and a new round of real estate destocking.

The author predicts that the remaining three kings will blow up the big move to save the city, and I believe it will come soon. First, the first-tier cities, Tianjin, Zhuhai and Hainan will issue policies to completely cancel purchase restrictions and other restrictive measures. The second is the tax policy of exempting the first house from deed tax, stamp duty and value-added tax, halving the second house and decreasing the third house.

The third is the RRR cut, the increase of PSL quota, special loans and special project loans, special treasury bonds, enterprise bonds, accelerated financial subsidies and appropriations, and the expansion of the scale of the white list of real estate projects have been introduced. Therefore, as long as the seven kings bomb the city once the big move is fully implemented and implemented in place, this year's golden nine and silver ten will be hot, and the market spring is coming.

From the perspective of the route and way of stabilizing the recovery trend of the real estate market, the first step is that real estate is still the shaping of the pillar industry, stimulating the boom of buying houses, grabbing houses late at night, queuing up to buy houses, and making the market return to the hot scene. The second step is to realize the sales transaction of hot cities across the country, the land market is hot, and the daily disc and land king appear frequently.

The third step is to achieve housing price increase in hot cities across the country, and more and more cities have seen housing prices rise. The decline in housing price indicators in 70 cities stopped falling, the housing price indicators narrowed in the second quarter and the first half of the year, and the housing price indicators in the third, fourth and annual periods continued to narrow and even rose.

The fourth step is the data indicators of the national real estate market, such as the second quarter, the first half of the real estate market indicators to stop falling, the decline narrowed, the gold nine silver ten real estate market is hot, the third quarter, the fourth quarter, the whole year of the real estate market indicators continue to narrow, some indicators turn positive growth.

The author believes that after the full implementation of the seven kings' rescue moves, the future real estate policy, as long as the local rescue policy is the mainstay, China's real estate policy officially bottomed out, the market will bottom out in the second or third quarter, at the latest by the end of the year, stabilize and recover, and will be expected to rebound by 2025.

In the short term, cities across the country are mainly focused on destocking, ensuring the delivery of housing, and reducing risks, and the trend of housing prices is stable and upward. Once the policy stimulus continues to increase and the relationship between supply and demand turns into tight supply, the demand is loosened and a large amount of capital is deposited into the currency, which will stimulate the rise of housing prices under multiple factors.

Finally, friends who need to buy a house can consider buying a house in the market, and don't miss the best time to buy a house, otherwise if you don't buy a house this year, you will be busy for five years, and it will really become a reality. Because the bottom of the real estate policy and the bottom of the market are approaching, the down payment, interest, and tax of housing loans have fallen across the board.

From the perspective of house purchase qualifications, market entry thresholds, and house purchase costs, it has exceeded 1998, 2008, and 2014. From the point of view of house price performance, it is already the lowest price in the first three rounds. Therefore, it is recommended that if conditions permit, although buying a house, self-occupation and investment can be allowed.

One of the four kings to blow up the city: the national team is down

The meeting proposed to continue to adhere to the city-specific policies, do a good job in the risk disposal of unfinished commercial housing, and solidly promote key tasks such as ensuring the delivery of housing and digesting the stock of commercial housing. The relevant local governments should proceed from the actual situation and properly dispose of the idle stock of residential land that has been transferred by means of repossession and acquisition as appropriate, so as to help real estate enterprises with financial difficulties to solve their difficulties.

In cities with a large inventory of commercial housing, the government may purchase some commercial housing at a reasonable price as appropriate. It is necessary to continue to do a good job in the prevention and disposal of debt risks of real estate enterprises, and solidly promote the construction of affordable housing, the transformation of urban villages, and the construction of public infrastructure for both ordinary and emergency purposes.

The author believes that this is the end of the national team, and the government will pay for inventory to help real estate companies resolve debts and ensure the delivery of buildings. The purpose is to implement the policy measures proposed in 4.30 to "comprehensively study and digest the stock of real estate and optimize the incremental housing", the overall direction is correct, and the biggest test is the local finance, because the local debt limit has reached the ceiling.

First, the local government acquires and recovers the idle stock of residential land of real estate enterprises that have been transferred, and the implementation of this policy lies in how to solve the source of funds and the acquired and recovered land. The biggest problem is the implementation and source of funds, except for 4 first-tier cities, some 27 second-tier cities and a small number of third-tier cities, other cities are unable to support funds.

From the perspective of the sources of funds for local governments, they are basically land transfer revenues, financial subsidies, local special bonds and special funds, state-owned assets and urban investment enterprise bonds, and bank loans. Therefore, the key is the financial support of the state, financial subsidies, PSL, re-lending, special loans, special loans, and special treasury bonds.

On the whole, only 4 first-tier cities, some 27 second-tier cities and a small number of third-tier cities are the mainstays, and it will not be a nationwide local unified, large-scale acquisition and recovery of the idle stock of residential land of real estate enterprises, because the funds are too huge, the local financial resources are limited, and the local debt limit has reached the ceiling.

In terms of the scale and amount of idle residential land of real estate enterprises, it is very huge. In particular, the idle stock of residential land in third-, fourth- and fifth-tier cities and first- and second-tier suburbs is difficult to develop, and the amount of land transfer involved is large. Therefore, local governments must set conditions and take the project as the target for acquisition and recovery.

If the idle residential land is in the central area, core area, urban area of the first- and second-tier cities, and the central area and core area of the key third, fourth and fifth tiers, the real estate enterprises will definitely not agree to the local government to acquire and repossess it. The most embarrassing thing is that real estate companies may have mortgaged idle residential land to institutions and companies due to loans and borrowings.

It can be predicted that although local governments acquire and recover the idle stock of residential land of real estate enterprises that have been transferred, whether they can be implemented on a large scale and in a large area is the key. Otherwise, the policy of local governments to acquire and recover the idle stock of residential land of real estate enterprises that has been transferred cannot solve the debt problem of real estate enterprises.

Second, the inventory of commercial housing in more cities, the government can need to order, as appropriate at a reasonable price to purchase part of the commercial housing for affordable housing, the implementation of this policy, the biggest problem lies in the implementation of funds and the source and acquisition, recovery of commercial housing how to transform into affordable housing, and will not lose money can have a small profit.

At present, the inventory of commercial housing has been converted into the treatment of affordable housing, and co-owned housing and talent housing can be sold, and funds can be quickly recovered, while public rental housing and rental housing can only be self-sustaining, and rent and financial subsidies are the mainstay. Therefore, the biggest problem is the implementation and source of local government funds.

Except for 4 first-tier cities, some 27 second-tier cities and a small number of third-tier cities, other cities are unable to support funds. From the perspective of the sources of funds for local governments, they are basically land transfer revenues, financial subsidies, local special bonds and special funds, state-owned assets and urban investment enterprise bonds, and bank loans.

Therefore, the key is the financial support of the state, financial subsidies, PSL, re-lending, expansion of rental housing loans, special loans, special loans, and special national bonds. Judging from the current cases of local acquisition, collection and storage of commercial housing inventory projects, most of them are in the stage of policy introduction, and not many have been implemented.

At present, from the perspective of local acquisition, collection and storage of commercial housing inventory cities, they are Anhui Chuzhou Lai'an County, Wenzhou Cangnan County, Qingdao Jiaozhou City, Suzhou, Jinan, Fuzhou, Changsha, Tianjin, Hohhot, Nanyang, Luoyang, Lianyungang, Hangzhou Lin'an District, Hefei, Chongqing, Dali.

On the whole, it is basically a second-tier city and a small number of third- and fourth-tier cities, and it will not be a national local unified, large-scale acquisition, recovery of commercial housing inventory into affordable housing, and at the same time, the number of acquisitions and recovery of commercial housing inventory into affordable housing is limited, and it is not very obvious for destocking.

The local government has set very strict conditions and requirements for the conversion of commercial housing inventory projects into affordable housing, and it is difficult for some real estate enterprises to meet the standards of commercial housing inventory, and at the same time, the acquisition and recovery of commercial housing inventory prices are not low, requiring huge funds, local financial resources are limited, and the local debt limit has reached the ceiling.

From the perspective of the main body of acquisition and recovery of commercial housing inventory, it is mainly the state-owned enterprise platform, which is mainly public rental housing, guaranteed rental housing, talent housing and co-housing that have been converted into affordable housing, followed by housing for new citizens. Judging from the projects that some real estate companies are in line with the transformation into affordable housing, the scale and amount are very large.

In particular, the suburbs of first- and second-tier cities and the inventory of commercial housing in third-, fourth- and fifth-tier cities are difficult to sell, involve a large amount of acquisition and recovery, and there are inconvenient transportation, incomplete supporting facilities, and low prices.

If the inventory of commercial housing is in the central area, core area, urban area of the first and second-tier cities, and the central area and core area of the key third, fourth and fifth tiers, the real estate company will definitely not agree to the government to buy and recover, because the land price and development cost are high, and the house is sold at a 7% discount or 8% discount, and there is no profit and loss of capital, unless the price given makes the real estate company not lose money.

The most embarrassing thing is that real estate companies may mortgage the houses in the inventory of commercial housing to institutions and companies due to loans and loans, which increases the difficulty of government acquisition and recovery. It can be predicted that although local governments purchase and collect commercial housing inventory to convert to affordable housing, whether it can be implemented on a large scale and on a large scale is the key.

Otherwise, the policy of relying solely on local governments to acquire and recover the inventory of commercial housing and convert it into affordable housing cannot solve the problem of real estate destocking. Because the inventory area is very large, reaching 745 million square meters, of which the residential inventory area is more than 300 million square meters, and the rest is office buildings, business buildings, and other non-saleable areas.

The second of the four kings to blow up the market is to increase the leverage of home buyers

Today, the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration issued a document requiring that for households that take out loans to purchase commercial housing, the minimum down payment ratio of commercial personal housing loans for the first house is adjusted to no less than 15%, and the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for second houses is adjusted to no less than 25%.

The author believes that this is a strong signal that the state will increase the leverage of residents (increase the leverage for home buyers), support and encourage the purchase of housing consumption, destock, help real estate companies resolve debts, ensure the delivery of buildings, and revitalize the real estate market. The purpose is to implement the "policy measures for the overall study and digestion of stock real estate and the optimization of incremental housing" proposed in 4.30.

The overall direction is correct, because local governments and enterprises are no longer able to increase leverage, and debt has reached the ceiling. As long as the residents can increase the leverage, the loans of the residents' deposits are several times. There is also the state, because the state has more than 40 trillion yuan in bank deposits, which can increase leverage.

Through the adjustment of the down payment of the mortgage, the threshold for buying a house is lowered, the threshold and purchasing ability of buyers to buy a house are improved, and the pressure of income reduction can be completely released, and a large number of first and second sets of houses in the market can be fully released, and the demand for three sets of houses of multi-child families can be stimulated, which is the best strategy to promote the recovery and stabilization of real estate destocking and revitalizing the market.

The minimum down payment ratio of the first commercial housing loan is not less than 15%, and the minimum down payment ratio of the second commercial housing loan is not less than 25%, and the biggest test is the implementation of the bank's policy of 15% and 25% down payment for the first and second homes, and whether the implementation is strict.

Judging from the comprehensive situation of financial prudence and credit risk, personal credit and housing location, banks will definitely set conditions for the down payment of 15% and 25% for the first and second homes. Once the resident's leveraged mortgage policy is well implemented and implemented, it will be a big boost to destocking and the real estate market is coming in spring.

The third of the four kings to save the market: buy a house and reduce the cost

Today, the central bank issued a document requesting the cancellation of the lower limit of the interest rate policy for commercial personal housing loans for the first and second houses. According to the real estate market situation of each city in the jurisdiction and the regulatory requirements of the local government, independently determine whether to set the lower limit and lower limit of the interest rate of commercial personal housing loans in each city within the jurisdiction (if any).

Banking financial institutions should be based on the provincial market interest rate pricing self-discipline mechanism to determine the lower limit of interest rates (if any), combined with the institution's operating conditions, customer risk status and other factors, reasonable determination of the specific interest rate level of each loan. In the event of any inconsistency between the previous relevant provisions and this Notice, this Notice shall prevail.

The author believes that this is a strong signal for the state to reduce the cost of housing for residents (to reduce the cost of home buyers), support and encourage the purchase of housing consumption, destocking, help real estate companies resolve debts, ensure the delivery of buildings, and revitalize the real estate market. The purpose is to implement the "policy measures for the overall study and digestion of stock real estate and the optimization of incremental housing" proposed in 4.30.

The overall direction is correct, because after residents increase leverage (home buyers increase leverage), they must reduce the cost of buying a house, greatly reduce the pressure on housing spending, and through the decline in the cost of housing loans, it can stimulate the housing market for housing consumption, not the existence of a bank to eat a little interest.

Through the adjustment of the down payment of the mortgage and the cancellation of the lower limit of the interest rate, the threshold and purchasing ability of home buyers can be quickly raised, the pressure of income decline can be reduced, and a large number of first and second housing demand in the market can be fully released, and the enthusiasm for buying houses can be stimulated. Promote the recovery and stabilization of real estate destocking and revitalizing the market.

Judging from the comprehensive situation of financial prudence and credit risk, personal credit and housing location, banks will definitely set conditions for canceling the lower limit of the interest rate policy for commercial personal housing loans for the first and second homes. Once the mortgage policy is well implemented and implemented, it will be the second major boost for destocking and the coming of spring in the real estate market.

The fourth of the four kings to save the market: buy a house and reduce the cost

Today, the central bank issued a document to reduce the interest rate of personal housing provident fund loans by 0.25% from May 18, and the first set of loans for less than 5 years (including 5 years) and more than 5 years will be lowered. The rates were adjusted to 2.35% and 2.85% respectively, and the second set of less than 5 years (including 5 years) and more than 5 years ... The interest rate is adjusted to not less than 2.775% and 3.325% respectively.

The overall direction, logic and effect of this reduction in the interest rate of personal housing provident fund loans, as well as the cancellation of the lower limit of the interest rate policy of commercial personal housing loans for the first and second houses, are to reduce the cost of buying a house, improve the threshold and purchasing ability of buyers to buy a house, and reduce the pressure of declining income.

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Personal opinion, for reference only