Lawrence Wong
In May 2024, after more than a year in the making, Singapore's Finance Minister Lawrence Wong was elected as Singapore's fourth prime minister, succeeding former Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, marking a major change in Singapore's political scene. In the post-Li Jiapo era, Singapore must face a series of complex challenges brought about by new changes in the international situation and geopolitics.
Singapore's "age of choice" is getting closer
Since the founding of Singapore's independence, I have divided its diplomatic strategy into two phases. The first stage is from Lee Kuan Yew after the founding of the People's Republic of China to the early days of Lee Hsien Loong's administration, during which time Singapore does not need to worry too much about the impact of the great power game on itself, as long as it is a port and trade center of the two oceans and a financial center in Southeast Asia.
The second phase is the "balancing strategism" that Lee Hsien Loong will follow from the middle of his administration to the present, and for a long time to come. That is, with the rise of China and its impact on the global economy, military and politics, Singapore must carefully manage and maintain its relationship with the two "super powers" of China and the United States.
Lawrence Wong and Lee Hsien Loong
While Lee Kuan Yew did have a diplomatic position that surpassed the power of the country, in my view, his son Lee Hsien Loong was in a more difficult situation than his father. But under Lee Hsien Loong's leadership, Singapore's balancing act has been successful, and it has largely achieved a neutral presence between China and the United States.
However, after Wong took office, it will be a huge challenge to maintain this policy in the face of the turbulent international situation. According to Singapore's Straits Times, Lawrence Wong has stressed on several occasions that Singapore will continue to pursue an independent foreign policy. But he also acknowledged that as the confrontation between China and the United States intensifies, it will become more and more difficult to maintain this policy.
And this is the problem, Singapore's "speculative" balance policy will be difficult to achieve in the future. This situation will be even more pronounced if Huang is prepared to stay in power for more than a decade. It may not even be that the two superpowers are actively "pressing" Singapore to make a choice, but that Singapore will have to make a choice as a last resort. And Singapore, or Lawrence Wong, are you really ready?
The choppy China Sea
The situation in the South China Sea (South China Sea) and the East China Sea (East China Sea) is becoming increasingly serious, and the entire China Sea has a significant impact on Singapore's security, although Singapore is not a claimant in the South China Sea or a direct stakeholder in the Taiwan Strait, but the stability of the China Sea is critical to its status as a maritime trade and energy transportation and even a financial center.
The problem is that Singapore is sandwiched between the two superpowers. On the one hand, Singapore has become an outpost or center of Chinese capital going overseas, one of the core nodes of China's foreign economic extension, and economic exchanges with China have become the key to Singapore's survival. On the other hand, although the United States has a lower and lower demand for Singapore in terms of economy, finance, and waterway trade, Singapore is still the forward base of the United States' defense forces in Southeast Asia, and is the core base of the northward intervention in the China Sea.
The newest Fujian aircraft carrier of the Chinese Navy
If China and the United States have trouble in the South China Sea or the East China Sea (including the Taiwan Strait), what are your options for Singapore? Is it the refusal to regard itself as part of the United States' containment of China in the face of the financial blockade and military threat of the United States? Or will they completely sacrifice their own economic interests and ASEAN's political interests to cut off China and fight against China?
Does this seem far away? Not at all, Lawrence Wong may face this dilemma in his second and third terms.
According to the South China Morning Post, Lawrence Wong plans to address this challenge by strengthening cooperation within ASEAN and strategic dialogue with other major powers. However, it is obvious that these efforts are useless, and the two powerhouses will not be diverted by Huang Xuncai's will.
Well, if the readers find the above words more obscure, the author simply points to the point: if we want to recover Taiwan and the United States intervenes, will Singapore dare to continue to serve as a logistics and supply center for the US aircraft carrier to go north to the South China Sea? Will there be a freeze on China's new capital? If the Philippines ends up taking a step beyond the Thunder Pond, will Singapore close the Malacca waterway to China? Will Singapore dare to refuse the unreasonable demands made by the United States at that time?
Did Lawrence Wong and Singapore really think about this?
Singapore's choice based on a balanced strategy
In order to avoid the above-mentioned crisis of choice, Wong's solution seems to be to facilitate ASEAN integration as soon as possible. If ASEAN cooperation in the economic, political and security fields can be promoted, or even an integrated alliance similar to that of the European Union, it will indeed enhance ASEAN's overall regional strength and ability to respond to external challenges.
As Evelyn Goh hopes in her book The Future of ASEAN, the region may be more "stable" if united under the ASEAN flag, implying that Singapore will then be guided by ASEAN's decisions, and given the large ASEAN factor, the two superpowers may not impose blame on Singapore. In an interview with the South China Morning Post, Lawrence Wong also stressed that Singapore will continue to be committed to ASEAN integration and support ASEAN's independence and centrality in international affairs, and it is clear that he hopes to speed up the process of ASEAN integration.
It's a pity, it looks wonderful.
Considering the huge differences within ASEAN, whether it is economic, political, cultural, ethnic, geographical, etc., ASEAN integration is even more difficult than that of the African Union. Regardless of the future, the recent Palestinian-Israeli issue has not been able to make a collective external voice within ASEAN. ASEAN strongly supports Palestine, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei and other countries that are members of the Islamic world, Vietnam and the Philippines, which are close to Israel, and Myanmar and Thailand, which have not taken the initiative to take sides, but are more resistant to Muslims.
Malaysia has been strengthening its relations with Muslim brother countries
As for Singapore, it itself cannot join in any discussion on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, and it does not want to offend either the United States, its three Muslim neighbors and the Middle East, an important exporter of energy.
If there is no way to make a decision between the rights and wrongs of such a situation and a dispute between the two parts of the country, and which is far from the interests of the region, how can Singapore and even ASEAN play their part in the China Sea? Not to mention that there are several South China Sea claimants.
Therefore, it is obviously impossible for Singapore to rely on ASEAN to hide behind its back.
Another approach is to deepen relations with the major powers within the framework of a balanced strategy. According to the New York Times, Lawrence Wong plans to further deepen relations with the two superpowers through high-level visits, bilateral dialogues and economic cooperation between China and the United States, hoping to ensure Singapore's stability and prosperity in the complex international situation in the future.
However, this is still wishful thinking on the part of Lawrence Wong and Singapore.
If it does not involve core interests, as a mouthpiece and a community of interests between the two superpowers, Singapore naturally has the weight and status of its words. Once the core interests of the two superpowers are touched, then no country, organization, or individual in the world can shake the core interests of the two superpowers.
As the saying goes, when the gods fight, the imps suffer. There is a day when most of the world's "imps" can stay out of the situation, sorry, Singapore can't, you are the most critical and closest "imp", if you don't make a good choice in advance, then you will definitely suffer.
Singapore needs to be clear about what its future needs are
Singapore's economy has long relied on globalization and free trade, but the uncertainty of the global economic situation and changes in the domestic economic structure have put Singapore under pressure that cannot be ignored.
Some international media, such as The Economist, have pointed out that in order for Singapore to maintain its global competitiveness, it needs to further develop in high-tech, financial innovation, etc. At the same time, Singapore is facing a labour shortage and a declining attractiveness of the high-quality middle class (an enhanced middle class).
Daniel Zhang, founder of Haidilao, who became a Singaporean citizen (in the picture)
According to the Straits Times, Lawrence Wong has proposed a series of measures, including increasing childcare subsidies and improving the working environment, aimed at increasing the birth rate and attracting high-quality immigrants, and investing heavily in the construction of financial centers and breakthroughs in high-tech fields.
So let's not talk about the present, but only talk about the next 10 or 20 years, has Singapore designed a model to solve these problems? In the two supers, who can help him solve the above problems?
Or do you want to give your future to India?
What is the premise for Singapore's rise? It was the center of US power in Southeast Asia during the Cold War, the lifeblood of the US energy shipping lanes, the anti-Soviet political intelligence bridgehead and military base, and the financial and economic center of US Wall Street capital and multinational groups radiating Southeast Asia, East Asia, Australia, and South Asia.
So will the future U.S. need Singapore to take on these roles? For example, does the United States still need oil from the Middle East?
So what about Singapore's place in the big country of the East? Is it willing to become the most important integrated center in the southeast of Eurasia (including a neutral political center, a financial and trade center, a cultural center, etc.) after returning to the global center?
Which allure or better for Singapore's future? This is not an unattainable consideration, but the new government of Singapore, to be precise, Hainan native Huang Xuncai, should take precautions the most.