Domestic oil prices are expected to fall again, and car owners are looking forward to a continuous decline
With the continuous fluctuation of international crude oil prices, domestic refined oil prices have also been in a state of frequent adjustment. Following the largest reduction of the year in mid-April, domestic refined oil prices fell slightly again last week (May 15). For the majority of car owners, the downward channel has been opened, and the dawn of oil prices returning to the "7 yuan era" is gradually approaching.
This round of price adjustment was lowered by 235 yuan/ton, and No. 92 gasoline fell below the 8 yuan mark in many places
Looking back at the price adjustment trend of the last round of May 15, gasoline and diesel prices fell again. It is understood that the adjustment of gasoline and diesel prices was reduced by 235 yuan and 220 yuan per ton respectively.
For No. 92 gasoline, in some areas such as Beijing, Shandong, Henan and other oil prices have fallen below the 8 yuan/liter mark again, and the highest price is around 7.77 yuan/liter. The national average price dropped to 7.53 yuan/liter. For private car owners, the cost of filling up a tank of petrol has dropped significantly compared to the previous month.
In terms of diesel, the national average price is about 7.34 yuan/liter. Although the price level is still slightly higher than the same period in previous years, it is already nearly 1 yuan/liter lower than the high point in early April. For long-distance transport vehicles and buses, the operating pressure has been alleviated to a certain extent.
The next round of price adjustment is coming, or the largest single reduction in the current year
After this sharp downward adjustment, industry insiders generally expect that the downward pace of domestic oil prices will continue. According to the current price adjustment mechanism, the next round of adjustment window will fall at 24 o'clock on May 29.
There are still 12 days to go before the final price adjustment is determined, but the current reference data shows that domestic oil prices have room to fall by 0.79% compared to the previous cycle. According to the price adjustment standard, if the decline exceeds 50 yuan per ton, a new round of price adjustment will be triggered.
For the upcoming price adjustment on May 29, most industry analysts believe that it is expected to achieve a sharp reduction and set a record for the largest single decline this year. After all, in the past month, international oil prices have generally maintained a downward trend, and there is often a certain lag in domestic oil price adjustments.
In other words, the cost of filling up a tank of fuel will again be greatly reduced. This is undoubtedly good news for the majority of car owners. In the current living environment of high inflation, lowering oil prices means reducing some of the burden of spending.
Car owners look forward to the downward momentum to continue to enter the "6 yuan era" and gradually approach
In fact, after late March, domestic refined oil prices have entered a continuous downward cycle. After the high level of operation in the first two months was broken, it experienced four rounds of price adjustments and reductions in succession. Among them, the large decline of 235 yuan/ton in the last round basically offset the previous increase.
For car owners, the return of oil prices to the "7 yuan era" is gratifying, but whether the next step can be further explored into the "6 yuan era" is undoubtedly a more expected result. It will further reduce their travel costs.
From the current point of view, it seems that it is not groundless to continue to have a relatively large price adjustment and reduction in the future. Because from the perspective of both supply and demand, the favorable factors conducive to the reduction of domestic oil prices have not disappeared.
First of all, on the supply side, as the mainland further increases its crude oil purchases from Russia, the average procurement cost of crude oil will continue to fall, creating room for downstream refined oil prices to be lowered.
Secondly, on the demand side, it is currently in the traditional off-season of demand, and the consumption demand for gasoline and diesel is temporarily limited, while the domestic refined oil inventory is maintained at a relatively sufficient level.
Moreover, although there have been short-term fluctuations in international oil prices, they have not been able to reverse the downward trend. As long as the world economic downturn continues, downward pressure on oil prices will remain.
Finally, there is often a certain lag in the adjustment of domestic oil prices, and the last round of sharp downward adjustments does not fully reflect the downward space of international oil prices. From this point of view, there may be a considerable amount of space at the bottom of the box in the future.
"Stagflation and fast fall" have raised questions in the industry to maintain the value of the long-term mechanism
It should be noted that while this round ushered in a sharp downward adjustment, the industry also pointed out that there is a tendency of "stagflation and rapid decline" in the adjustment of oil prices in the mainland.
That is, when the oil price is raised, there is often a lag in the phenomenon of reflection, and the actual price adjustment is still at a high level. When oil prices are lowered, they are relatively quick to directly reflect the changes in international oil prices. To a certain extent, this has exacerbated the business difficulties of oil suppliers.
In fact, in recent years, this problem has been complained about many times in the industry. Many people believe that consideration should be given to appropriately adjusting the existing price adjustment cycle and standards, so that they can more intuitively and timely reflect the impact of international crude oil price fluctuations on domestic oil retail prices.
This is not only to safeguard the rights and interests of consumers, but also to reflect the fairness of the system, so as to avoid the "winner-takes-all" result, which brings uncertainty and risks to the entire industrial chain.
However, there are also views that the overall value and status of the current long-term oil price adjustment mechanism still need to be maintained, because it can reflect market-oriented pricing in the long run and avoid the impact of large fluctuations in oil prices.
After all, frequent oil price adjustments not only increase the cost of industry management and supervision, but also cause confusion and confusion for consumers due to excessive price fluctuations. The trade-offs and controls in this area require more elaborate and careful arrangements.
It may increase policy regulation and control to control inflation expectations
On the whole, the recent downward trend of oil prices is in line with the expectations and expectations of all sectors of society. After all, in the current context of high inflationary pressure, stabilizing the price trend of people's biological resources is the top priority of the policy.
It can be expected that in the future, the mainland may intensify policy-based price control and strive to keep oil prices operating within a reasonable space. At the same time, in response to the plight of upstream suppliers and downstream retailers, refined regulation and corresponding measures will be taken in a timely manner, and efforts will be made to find the best balance between all stakeholders.
In short, there is still a long way to go to get out of the shadow of high inflation, and it is fundamental to maintain the people's sense of gain and happiness. By increasing the regulation and control of important areas of people's livelihood such as prices,