The down payment was reduced to 15%, and the property market put three big moves!

Livestock Corps 2024

2024-05-17 20:16Posted in Guangdong Finance and Economics Creators

The down payment has dropped to 15%. Young people buy their first home, and they can get on the car directly with a down payment of 15%. For families who have already bought their first home, the down payment for a second home has also dropped to 25%. Today, real estate stocks are red across the board, and they can only be described in six words: "Up and down!" Trading! Trading! "One real estate has pulled up the entire A-share market.

Special services rose 20%, I love my home, Rongan Real Estate, Greenland Holdings, Gemdale Holdings, Joy City, Poly Development, and Vanke A, etc., dozens of real estate stocks have been pulled up. In particular, Vanke's single stock turnover exceeded 7.8 billion, and the limit was limited at the end of the session. The familiar feeling that used to be felt as if it was coming back again. Why is the collective climax of real estate stocks? Because of today's property market policy, "three arrows" have been released at one time!

The first one: reduce the down payment. The down payment is reduced to 15% for the first set and 25% for the second set. Some people questioned, shouldn't they just lower the down payment? Housing prices have not fallen. Isn't there less down payment, more loans, higher interest, and more monthly payments? Isn't this pulling your pants and farting, and that's an extra move? But what the captain must tell everyone is that the collapse of housing prices is impossible. Lowering the down payment is to let young people who can't afford to buy a house get on the car with a low threshold.

From what I couldn't afford at first, now at least I can afford it.

The second branch: interest rate cuts. The interest rate on the CPF for the first home is reduced to 2.35% for a term of less than 5 years, and to 2.85% for a term of more than 5 years. For a long time, young Chinese have borne not only high housing prices, but also high interest rates. Lowering interest rates is equivalent to directly reducing the cost of buying a house.

The third branch: the upper limit of commercial loan interest rate will be abolished, and banks can adjust the commercial loan interest rate independently. Considering the current sluggish property market, it is a high probability event that the interest rate of commercial loans and the interest rate of the provident fund are further aligned. In other words, China's home loan interest rate will fall further.

Moreover, the reason why the capital market has rebounded so enthusiastically is not because of these "three arrows", but also because of the determination of the central government. Boosting real estate has become a new direction. Bailouts, from top to bottom, have formed a new consensus. If the boost effect of the "three arrows" is not enough, the follow-up government will inevitably come up with more favorable policies, including the government's exit and personal purchase of houses.

For example, Lin'an District of Hangzhou took the lead in acquiring the entire commercial real estate and turning it into public rental housing or affordable housing. Some bloggers interpret this as the government wants to buy people's houses. This is a seriously misconception. Saving the property market is mainly divided into two parts: the first part is to save the owners. That is, to ensure the delivery of the building and save the unfinished project. This part has been vigorously implemented with many measures. The second part is to rescue real estate enterprises, inject cash flow into real estate enterprises, and maintain the stable landing of the real estate industry.

There are already too many real estate companies that have exploded, such as Country Garden, Agile, R&F, Evergrande, Sunac, etc., all of which have exploded. Even Vanke, known as an "honor student", almost exploded. If this phenomenon cannot be reversed in a timely manner, the systemic risk will be even greater, and it will also seriously drag down the growth of the national economy. If the house can't be sold, home furnishings, home appliances, building materials, etc., will not be sold.

Therefore, the government's collection and storage of real estate does not mean that the second-hand houses of the trapped residents will be unraveled, but that they will transfuse blood and inject funds into real estate enterprises. There are very few buildings that are really worthy of renovation of affordable housing and public rental housing. Because only in some areas of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, you can rent it out if you go to renovate, and most of the third- and fourth-tier cities, as well as the houses in the county, you can't rent them out if you go to renovate. Allowing the government to acquire and store real estate is essentially a blood transfusion and capital injection for real estate enterprises, which plays a role in maintaining the stability of the entire market.

What really has a certain effect on residents' second-hand housing is to trade in the old for the new. When many people are young, they buy their first house, and they may buy a small one and want to change to a larger one. However, this small set can't be sold, and the big ones can't be replaced. This demand was suppressed. At this time, the government recycles your house, you go to buy a big new house, the real estate company gets cash flow, you get the big house, the government gets your second-hand house, renovate it, and then sell it at a low price. If the real estate company has money, it can also take the land again, and the money will return to the government, forming a virtuous circle.

In order to ensure that the money is transferred back and the old is traded, the area is generally designated. You can't sell a second-hand house in Guangzhou and change it to a new house in Shenzhen, most likely in the same city, or in the same district.

Real estate can be de-bubbled and deleveraged, but it must not collapse. In the captain's view, after these three arrows are sent, the domestic property market will have a short-term recovery. However, in the long run, the future market will still be based on improvement, supplemented by rigid demand, and there is still room for bank interest rates to be lowered.

For young people who have not yet bought a house, this is a good opportunity to get on the bus.

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