After the 18th Beijing Auto Show just past, there is a feeling in my heart that is still getting stronger and stronger, that is, the intensity of the independent brand is far beyond imagination.
They are the founder of the volume, who is the "conspicuous package" of the volume, the volume of products, the volume technology, the volume of energy, the volume service, the volume channel, the volume of marketing, and even the volume founder.
Of course, there is no accident, every booth occupies the C position, it must be a new energy vehicle; The most concerned at each booth must be new energy vehicles; Every booth is full of topics, and it must be new energy vehicles.
Looking at the prosperity in front of us, I believe you must be able to deeply understand what it means: "Nowadays, the main theme of China's auto market is that independent brands take advantage of the wave of electrification transformation to attack every position held by joint venture brands." ”
Coincidentally, as early as the end of March this year, BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu also threw out a rather bold forecast at the performance communication meeting after the release of the 2023 annual financial report.
He believes that "at present, the new energy industry has entered the knockout round, and 2024-2026 is a decisive battle of scale, cost and technology." In the next 3-5 years, the share of joint venture brands in China's auto market will drop from 40% to 10%, of which 30% is the growth space of domestic brands. ”
To put it more bluntly, the pattern will be completely reshaped in the dark tide.
Whether it is the above-mentioned real cases or the judgments made by industry bosses, they all confirm a fact that there is no dispute: "The decisive battle between independent brands and joint venture brands has really kicked off." ”
When the share of autonomy exceeds 60%
"Kill crazy, completely kill crazy."
The opening sentence of this paragraph may be a little abrupt in the eyes of many people, but it is my feelings. As for the reason behind it, I saw a phased report card announced by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
The data shows that in the past three years, the market share of self-owned brand passenger cars has continued to rise.
In 2021, the sales volume of own-brand passenger cars reached 9.543 million units, with a market share of 44.4%. In 2022, the sales volume of self-owned brand passenger cars will reach 11.766 million units, with a market share of 49.9%. In 2023, the sales volume of self-owned brand passenger cars will reach 14.596 million units, with a market share of 56%.
On the other hand, in the first four months of this year, the sales of self-owned brand passenger cars reached 4.664 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.7%, while the market share officially exceeded the 60% mark, hitting a record high of 60.7%, an increase of 7.7 percentage points compared with the same period in 2023.
There is no doubt that this is a very valuable moment. It directly proves that in a new track, independent brands have the right to dominate and define the Chinese auto market.
I can't help but recall the twists and turns, pressure and hardships we have experienced in the past few decades, the era of fuel vehicles, and the glory, reputation and self-confidence that we have regained in the era of new energy vehicles.
In the face of such a scenario, we have to praise once again the forward-looking and correctness of the top-level design of the national strategy to overcome many challenges and make every effort to transform into electrification.
It's just that, reading this, there may be doubters who think: "The current independent brands are indeed full of momentum under the screaming and killing, but many car companies are trying to survive and struggle in an extremely vicious way." So is it an overdraft? How long can it last? Is it self-hematopoietic? Many pain points are clearly placed there. ”
In my opinion, "There's nothing wrong with worrying, but when Armageddon kicks off, the raging tide of reshaping the landscape is blowing in our faces, and I really can't manage it that much." ”
For independent brands that are moving forward, for a long time in the future, the fight is who has more grain and grass in their hands, who has a thicker family foundation, who has stronger execution ability, and who has higher systematic efficiency, which can withstand wave after wave of consumption, impact and test.
In short, it's the slightly controversial view: "China's auto market is bound to become a winner-takes-all." And in this process, the weak will be eliminated one after another, and the strong who stand out will get a more and more delicious "cake".
If you want to become the final member of the stay, you must have no shortcomings in all dimensions, and at the same time give up all illusions that cannot be landed, and be ready to "fight bayonets" at any time.
When the share of joint ventures is shrinking
How should we describe the current situation of joint venture brands in the Chinese auto market?
After thinking for a while, the answer pointed directly: "From the sedan sector, to the SUV sector, to the MPV sector, the once proud profit cows are all facing the dilemma of being attacked one by one." ”
With the opening of the Armageddon, the joint venture brand had to lower its arrogant head, spit out all the sweetness accumulated in China over the years, and even did not hesitate to lose money in order to maintain sales.
But even so, the rise of independent brands is still unstoppable. Judging from the phased report card released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first four months of this year, the market share of joint venture brands is still shrinking further.
Among them, only 16.6% of German brands and 12.2% of Japanese brands are in a slightly better position. In comparison, only 7.5% of American brands remained, 1.7% of Korean brands remained, and only 1.3% of other brands remained.
The above results also coincide with the judgment that has been repeatedly moved out before: "In this wave of bullets, the first joint venture brand to encounter big trouble is the French and Italian systems that are not adapted to the water and soil, and then the Korean and American systems that adhere to the cost-effective route, and then the Japanese system that focuses on low economic consumption will encounter big trouble, and the German system is the existence with the thickest blood volume because of the existence of BBA and the public, but it is still not as brave as it was in the past." ”
As for the intensification of the artillery fire, in the next 3-5 years, the market share of the joint venture brand will really fall from the current 40% all the way to only about 10% as predicted by Wang Chuanfu, I believe that no one can give a definite answer at present.
However, what is certain is that the joint venture brand is not a vulnerable "sick cat" in some public opinion.
In fact, continuing to take the 18th Beijing Auto Show as an example, I believe that everyone can read a very strong signal in them: no one will give up on China easily.
Whether it is German, Japanese, American, or Korean, as long as you come to participate, the changes and desire to survive are still gratifying. In other words, even though China's situation is stressful, the courage to struggle has not been lost.
This has further focused our attention on the so-called "earnings season" recently. Judging from the state of several joint venture brands, although the revenue of the Chinese auto market has plummeted, it is still in the global market.
For example, Toyota's net profit in fiscal 2023 increased by more than 100% year-on-year, exceeding 5 trillion yen for the first time, reaching 5.35 trillion yen, or about 250 billion yuan, setting a new record in history. And the entry of these abundant grain and grass is undoubtedly the confidence of its struggle in the quagmire.
In general, because there is a sufficiently stable supply input, the staying power of the joint venture brand should not be underestimated, and the so-called "war of attrition" is not afraid of many people.
It is precisely based on the above background that I believe that the decisive battle between independent brands and joint venture brands is far from reaching the point of closing the coffin. The confrontation and fighting between the two sides will only become more tragic and bloody.
In the end, it is a matter of attacking and defending each position, and the price will definitely be doubled......