Metals rose Shanghai copper brush 18-year high, coking coal rose 3.33%, European line container transportation hit a record high

SMM May 16:

Metals Market:

As of today's daytime close, the domestic base metals rose, alumina rose nearly 2.00%, Shanghai nickel rose 1.71%, Shanghai aluminum rose 1.42%, Shanghai copper, lead rose 0.. 82%、0.05%。 Among them, Shanghai copper and lead are brushed to a new high, Shanghai copper brush since May 17, 2006 to a new high of 83,000 yuan/ton.

As of 15:18 today, Shanghai copper rose 1.18%, and other metals rose below 1.00%.

Lithium carbonate rose 0.39%, and industrial silicon fell 0.80%. Manganese silicon fell 1.40% today. Today, the European line container carrier gradually weakened after hitting a record high of 4321.9, closing up 2.17%.

The black series was red across the board, coking coal rose 3.33%, rebar, iron ore and coke rose by more than 2.00%, hot coil rose 1.86%, and stainless steel rose 0.04%.

Shanghai gold and silver rose 1.12% and 2.90% respectively. As of 15:18 today, COMEX gold and silver fell 0.14% and 0.10% respectively, of which COMEX silver brushed a new high of $30.105 per ounce since February 1, 2021 and then weakened.

As of 15:18 today

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Spot & Fundamentals

Copper:

Today's spot trading in the morning market is significantly better than yesterday's, with strong demand for cash exchange from shippers, and some procurement gaps in the downstream before the month change also have supplementary demand. Due to the maintenance of some smelters, the southbound volume of some northern goods has decreased, and it is expected that the spot premium will continue to rise tomorrow. >> Click here for details

In terms of coking coal:

Yesterday, SMM research showed that on the supply side, although the market rumors that coal mines are about to increase production, most coal mines are still maintaining the previous production rhythm. The specific implementation of the policy still needs to be implemented, and the short-term coking coal supply side has not changed much. On the demand side, today's coking coal market transactions are stable, the downstream enthusiasm for taking goods is acceptable, and coking plants purchase on demand. It is expected that coke prices will remain stable in the short term. >> Click here for details

Macroscopic

On the US dollar:

Recently, the U.S. dollar index has been running weakly and is flat as of 15:18 today. Last night's US core CPI for April cooled for the first time in six months, while retail sales also stagnated in April, with high borrowing costs and a growing debt burden likely to make consumers more cautious in spending. Since the beginning of the year, there have been widespread fears that this will force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more aggressively, as the US currency data has been higher than expected for three consecutive months. Against this backdrop, the latest inflation data has brought some comfort to the market, leading the market to increase bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September and December. The U.S. dollar index fell rapidly after the release of the CPI data.

Today, Fed officials will speak intensively, and the market's focus on the postponement of interest rate cut expectations and pressure on the demand outlook may continue to increase.

》On May 16, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1020 yuan per US dollar per dollar

Domestic:

[Five departments: to carry out new energy vehicles to the countryside in 2024] The General Office of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the General Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, the General Office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the General Office of the Ministry of Commerce and the General Department of the National Energy Administration issued a notice on carrying out the activities of new energy vehicles going to the countryside in 2024. The notice proposes that from May to December 2024, new energy vehicle models suitable for the rural market, good reputation and reliable quality will be selected, and activities such as centralized exhibitions and demonstrations, test rides and test drives will be carried out to enrich the consumer experience and provide diversified choices. Organize charging and swapping services, financial services such as new energy vehicle underwriting, claims, and credit, as well as after-sales services such as maintenance, to go to the countryside to make up for the shortcomings of the supporting environment in rural areas. Implement support policies such as car trade-in, county-level charging and swapping facilities to make up for shortcomings, and direct "real money" discounts to consumers. Encourage all new energy vehicle manufacturers, sales enterprises, financial institutions, charging and swapping facility enterprises, sales and after-sales service enterprises to actively participate, combined with the old for the new and county-level charging and swapping facilities to make up for shortcomings and other support policies to formulate promotional plans, establish and improve the after-sales service system. >> Click here for details

In terms of data:

Pay attention to the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week from May 16 to May 11, the annualized total number of new housing starts in the United States in April, the total number of building permits in the United States in April, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index in May, the monthly rate of the US import price index in April, and the monthly rate of industrial production in the United States in April.

Crude oil:

As of 15:18 today, U.S. oil and cloth oil rose by more than 0.50%. OPEC and IEA have successively released their May monthly reports, and there are differences in the forecasts of future oil demand in the reports. OPEC kept its forecast for the pace of oil demand growth this year unchanged at 2.25 million b/d, believing there is potential upside for the economy, while the IEA predicted in its monthly report released Wednesday afternoon that the demand growth outlook will continue to weaken. Specifically, the IEA lowered its forecast for oil demand growth this year by 140,000 b/d to 1.1 million b/d, an adjustment largely due to weak demand from developed OECD countries. In addition to OPEC, which represents the supply side, maintaining an unchanged attitude towards demand, both the IEA and the EIA have lowered their crude oil demand outlooks, which has weighed on market confidence.

In terms of inventories, the EIA report released on Wednesday showed that in the week ended May 10, U.S. crude oil inventories, including strategic reserves, totaled 824.831 million barrels, down 1.915 million barrels from the previous week, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 457.02 million barrels, down 2.509 million barrels from the previous week, U.S. gasoline inventories totaled 227.767 million barrels, down 235,000 barrels from the previous week, and distillate inventories were 116.365 million barrels, down 45,000 barrels from the previous week. U.S. crude oil production held steady at 13.1 million b/d, and U.S. refinery runs climbed 1.9% to 90.4%. The U.S. oil meter demand fell slightly by 230,000 barrels per day to 20.05 million barrels per day on a weekly basis, and the table demand for mainstream oil products increased, and the fundamentals of crude oil still had some support.

SMM Daily Review

►U.S. inflation data cools down, U.S. index lowers boosts copper prices [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

►The base price of aluminum has risen sharply, the processing fee is under pressure, and the market is purchasing on a dip [Aluminum rod spot daily review]

►The cost drive is still strong, and the price of nickel salt is rising【SMM Nickel Sulfate Daily Review】

►The main lithium carbonate contract rose 0.39% [SMM Review]

►Silicon-manganese range shock, spot market quotation confusion [SMM manganese-silicon review]

►The disk is rising and falling, and all parties have a wait-and-see attitude [SMM silicon-manganese daily review]

►The rise of electrolytic manganese has slowed down, and the acceptance of downstream high prices is low [SMM Electrolytic Manganese Daily Review]