What is the impact of the United States' anti-dumping investigation on Southeast Asia?

Time Weekly

2024-05-16 21:18Posted on the official account of Guangdong Times Weekly

Source of this article: Times Weekly Author: He Mingjun

The anti-dumping investigation is here again.

On May 16, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced an antidumping and countervailing duty investigation into crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells imported from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, whether assembled into modules or not, in response to an application filed by the U.S. Solar Manufacturing Trade Council on April 24.

The U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) is expected to issue a preliminary determination on industrial injury in this case by June 10, 2024 at the latest. According to U.S. statistics, in 2023, the U.S. will import about US$2.3 billion from Cambodia, US$1.9 billion from Malaysia, US$3.7 billion from Thailand, and US$4 billion from Vietnam.

Although the target country of this anti-dumping and anti-dumping investigation is not China, the target of the investigation is aimed at the photovoltaic industry chain in Southeast Asia. Two years ago, the United States conducted an "anti-circumvention" investigation into Southeast Asian-made photovoltaic products. After ruling the tax rate limit, the implementation in the United States was postponed for two years due to the shortage of PV module production capacity in the United States. According to the Times reporter, in the past 12 years, the photovoltaic products produced in China have not been directly exported to the United States, but a complete industrial chain has been formed by re-exporting to the United States through Southeast Asian bases.

On the evening of May 16, a reporter from Time Weekly contacted LONGi Green Energy (601012. SH), JA Solar (002459. SZ), JinkoSolar (688223. SH) and many other first-line photovoltaic companies, but as of press time, the above-mentioned companies did not respond to reporters.

"At present, we are waiting and seeing, and it is estimated that it will have a big impact. China has not been able to export photovoltaic products directly to the United States, and basically needs to use Southeast Asia. A leading photovoltaic company told the Times reporter, "It is not yet known which countries will be required to charge how much tax rate." ”

Previously, the United States had conducted a double-dumping investigation on China's photovoltaics, thus opening a new path for Chinese photovoltaic companies to build production capacity overseas.

According to incomplete statistics from the Times Weekly reporter, JinkoSolar has "an annual output of 10GW monocrystalline silicon wafer production line project" and an "annual output of 8GW solar module and 8GW solar cell production line project" in Vietnam; LONGi Green Energy has an annual output of 6.6GW of monocrystalline silicon rod projects in Malaysia (gradually put into operation in the second quarter of 2024), an annual output of 2.8GW of monocrystalline modules, and a 3.35GW of monocrystalline cell projects in Vietnam. JA Solar has an "annual output of 5GW high-efficiency cell project" in Vietnam, and will form an integrated production capacity of 6GW in the future; Trina Solar (688599. SH) has a PV wafer, cell and module production capacity of 6.5GW, 6.5GW and 6.5GW respectively in Southeast Asia.

"From an industry point of view, even if the tariffs are raised, if exports are still profitable in the past, then it will not have much impact, but the profits may be less, after all, the United States itself is a high-premium market." The above-mentioned business source pointed out that "it depends on the reaction of the market, if the market can accept it, and the price and value are still competitive in the market, then in the end it can still be exported smoothly." ”

"Historically, changes in the policy side will be reflected in module terminal prices, so it is predicted that on the one hand, short-term demand in the US may accelerate this year, and on the other hand, module prices in the US market may rise further after the policy change due to the relative replenishment of domestic production capacity in the US." JinkoSolar has explained the policy implications of the U.S. market in a record of investor relations activities.

On May 14, the White House announced tariffs on a range of Chinese solar cells, electric vehicles, computer chips and medical products. Among them, for the photovoltaic sector, the US tariff rate on solar cells imported from China (whether assembled into modules or not) will be doubled from 25% to 50% in 2024, which is a continuation of the Section 301 tariff (a tariff imposed on Chinese imports during the Trump era).

The U.S. remains one of the world's most important PV markets. Due to the high premium in the U.S. market, PV companies are generally willing to find ways to export their products to the U.S. In addition to building capacity in Southeast Asia, building a factory or joint venture directly in the United States is also an option.

According to incomplete statistics from the Times reporter, Trina Solar's 5GW U.S. module production capacity is under construction, and it is expected to start gradually putting into operation in the fourth quarter of this year. LONGi Green Energy's 5GW joint venture plant in the United States has started production in the first quarter of this year; JinkoSolar invests in the construction of a 2GW module factory in the United States; JA Solar's 2GW module production capacity in the U.S. is expected to come online in the third quarter of this year.

However, the above-mentioned business people also pointed out that the cost of building a factory in the United States is relatively high, and the progress is relatively slow.

On May 16, JA Solar closed at 14.11 yuan per share, down 0.77%; JinkoSolar closed at 7.68 yuan per share, down 0.78%; LONGi Green Energy closed at 18.54 yuan per share, down 0.70%; Trina Solar closed at 20.57 yuan per share, down 1.95%.

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