What is behind the arrival of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and the "boom" in the subscription of savings treasury bonds?

Guo Shiliang

2024-05-16 10:23Published in Guangdong financial commentator, financial columnist

  The issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds is imminent, and in terms of the maturity of the issuance, it is mainly 20 years, 30 years, and 50 years. Considering that the issuance period of ultra-long-term special government bonds is too long, it is not as attractive to investors as savings bonds.

  From the perspective of investment security, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are relatively safer, and even higher than investment channels such as bank certificates of deposit and bank fixed deposits.

  From the perspective of liquidity, the liquidity of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds is not particularly good, and investors still need to be wary of the cost factor of early redemption. At the same time, if the holding period is less than half a year, it will also bear the risk of not paying interest, if the holding period exceeds half a year, then it will be paid according to the file, which means that the longer the holding period, the higher the investment income can be obtained.

  From the perspective of yield, the yield of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds may be higher than that of large certificates of deposit or bank fixed deposits. However, behind the higher yields of ultra-long-term special government bonds, investors need to bear a high time cost, and if investors choose to hold them forever, they will have to wait for many years, and the holding cost is very high.

  Compared with ultra-long-term special government bonds, savings government bonds are significantly more attractive than ultra-long-term special government bonds. From the perspective of investment security, both ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and savings treasury bonds have relatively high investment security.

  Let's take a look at the investment yield and investment liquidity of savings bonds.

  Generally speaking, the entry threshold for savings bonds is relatively low, and the investment yield is slightly higher than that of other stable or conservative investment varieties. Therefore, from the perspective of investment cost performance, the investment cost performance of savings treasury bonds will be more obvious.

  According to the analysis of the electronic savings bonds issued in April this year, 99.7% of the planned issuance amount was sold on the first day of issuance, which to a certain extent reflects the relatively high love of savings bonds and the holding period also meets the real needs of many investors.

  Why savings bonds are recognized by all parties in the market. In the final analysis, it is related to its investment return expectations, and it is also inextricably linked to the factors of the continuous decline in deposit rates. In other words, if deposit rates bottom out or the stock market rises significantly, the investment attractiveness of savings bonds will also be significantly reduced.

  If we find a balance between investment security, investment liquidity and investment yield, then in the current market environment, the investment cost performance of savings bonds is still relatively high.

  Looking at the current investment environment in the domestic market, on the one hand, the deposit interest rate continues to fall, the risk-free interest rate of the overall market continues to decline, and there are not many reliable and high-yield investment varieties; On the other hand, the stock market and fund market have not shown a significant upward trend, and the impact on the diversion of funds from other investment channels is also very limited.

  Looking back at the market environment in 2007 and 2015, in the process of the stock market rising significantly, the impact of the stock market and fund market on the diversion of funds from other investment channels is considerable. In essence, funds have a strong demand for profit, and where there is an opportunity to make profits, funds will run where.

  Behind the "boom" in the subscription of savings treasury bonds, it is still related to the phenomenon of "more private funds and fewer investment channels". Even if a large number of funds have the need to maintain and increase the value of assets, due to the limited reliable investment channels, for many funds, they will still choose more stable savings bonds and large certificates of deposit, and are not willing to invest in stocks or funds easily.

  Deposit rates have continued to fall, and the net interest margins of commercial banks have hit a new low level in many years, making it more difficult for banks to make money. For investors, there are many investment varieties to choose from, but there are still a few that can bring investors a real sense of asset preservation and appreciation effect over the years.

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