The cost of 500 million, the analysis of the finalization of "Reinforcements Arriving Tomorrow", I dare to conclude that the box office is stable at 4 billion

Movie box office trailer

2024-05-16 12:41Posted in Anhui film creators

"I'm from Hengyang, no one, I don't have the kind of experience and feeling I had when I was a child, I don't know if I'm younger than me, those older than me have passed away, if I don't make this movie again, it won't come out in the future." ——This is Liu Heping's intention to talk about the creation of the movie "Reinforcements Arrive Tomorrow".

On May 14, a film reflecting the theme of the Anti-Japanese War, "Reinforcements Arrive Tomorrow", is finally going to meet the audience.

"Reinforcements Arrive Tomorrow" is scheduled to be released on June 28, focusing on July 1st, and is currently the only war-themed film in the entire summer of 2024.

At the same time as the film was finalized, a trailer and several posters were also released, Brother Brown made a detailed analysis based on the known materials, and boldly concluded that the box office would be 4 billion, and the traffic star Yang Yang could surpass Lu Han through this movie.

1. Analyze the historical background.

The film is based on the "Battle of Hengyang" in the history of China's Anti-Japanese War, although this battle is not as famous as the Battle of Songhu, the Battle of Nanjing, and the Battle of Changsha, but its historical significance is much more significant.

In 1944, in order to reverse the unfavorable situation in the Pacific theater, Japan came up with a "No. 1 Operation Plan", and the entire route was from the landing in Korea to the end of Singapore, which would cross most of China.

The combat strength reached 500,000 people, and with the land, sea and air force were fully stationed, because the offensive was mainly concentrated in Henan, Hunan and Guangxi, it was also called the "Henan-Xianggui Campaign" in history.

In April of the same year, the Japanese occupied Zhengzhou, rampage, broke Xuchang and Luoyang, until Changsha was lost in mid-June, and the next target was Hengyang, Hunan.

Hengyang, which was originally planned to break the city in 1 day and completely solve it in 3 days, made the Japanese side suffer a lot, and the then defender General Fang Xianjue led 17,300 soldiers to prepare in advance.

From June 23, when the fighting began, to August 8, the ammunition was exhausted.

In the end, in the defense of Hengyang, there were still 1,200 people left on our side, and the Japanese side spent 110,000 troops and took 47 days to barely break through the Hengyang gate.

Their casualties were as high as 80,000, and the battle loss rate reached 1:4, which was a battle in the entire history of the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression, when we were outnumbered, our side defended the city for the longest time, and the Japanese side suffered the heaviest casualties.

2. The name of the analysis piece.

This documentary anti-Japanese war film did not use "Hengyang Defense" or "Hengyang 1944" as the title, but used the ironic "Reinforcements Arrive Tomorrow".

In the trailer, Fang Xianjue, played by Yu Hewei, has a line like this: "Fellow migrant workers in Hengyang, brothers in the officers and soldiers of the Tenth Army, you must stick to Hengyang for ten days, and reinforcements will arrive one after another tomorrow." ”

At the end, Jing Qidi, played by Yang Yang, said: "Where there are still reinforcements, just hit the last one." ”

In the real historical records, Fang Xianjue received an order from Shangfeng to hold Hengyang for 7 days, and then send reinforcements to surround the Japanese side, but this battle lasted for 47 days, and the reinforcements never came.

When he ran out of ammunition and had no support, Fang Xianjue sent a final telegram and was about to drink bullets and kill himself when he was rescued by the staff officer. The telegram at that time read as follows:

After the enemy broke through from the north of the city this morning, they began street fighting in the city. Our officers and men suffered all the casualties, and there were no more troops to block the attack. The rank vows to repay the service with a death, and to fulfill the duty of a soldier, this telegram is afraid to be the last telegram, goodbye in the next life!

In order to protect the remaining brothers, Fang Xianjue signed the "Final War Agreement" with the Japanese side in desperation, and the Battle of Hengyang ended.

Fang Xianjue's actions caused controversy at the time, but he was still regarded as an anti-Japanese hero after he escaped and returned to Chongqing. Our instructor once said, "The soldiers who defend Hengyang are heroic. ”

At the end of 1949, Fang Xianjue left the mainland for Taiwan, and died of illness in Taipei on March 3, 1983.

In addition to the satire of "Reinforcements Arrive Tomorrow", there is also an interpretation of human nature, and the emotional appeal of those soldiers is: Why didn't the reinforcements arrive?

Third, the budget cost of 500 million.

War genre films involve more scenes, costumes, equipment, and extras, and the cost is much larger than that of ordinary movies.

For example, several well-known war films in recent years, "King Kong River" cost 200 million; "Changjin Lake", including the two-part series of "Watergate Bridge", has a total production cost of 1.3 billion; The cost of "Eight Hundred" is 600 million, and almost all of them are big productions.

"Reinforcements Arrive Tomorrow" is no exception, Liu Heping is the screenwriter and director, and the scripts he created are among the best in China, including "Ming Dynasty 1566", "Towards the Republic", "No War in Beiping" and so on.

It can be said that he is at the ceiling level in domestic historical dramas, and in "No War in Peking", he is particularly good at constructing war scenes in the style of "three sessions".

Liu Heping himself is a native of Hengyang, and the quality will be guaranteed, if the reputation is pounced, he will have no shame to face Jiangdong's fathers.

In addition, the film's art and photography director are also first-class in China, and he has participated in many films of Chen Kaige and Zhang Yimou, such as art director Huo Tingxiao's representative works include "Farewell My Concubine", "Jing Ke's Assassination of King Qin", "Hero", "Ambush on All Sides", and Tsui Hark's "Changjin Lake" series.

Because the content of "Reinforcements Arrive Tomorrow" is somewhat similar to "Eight Hundred", it is not easy for this film to come out.

The film will be filmed in September 2022 and completed in May 2023.

And more than 2,000 local group performances were enabled, and tens of thousands of acres of land were approved for the crew to be used as a film and television base to set up the scene, with a total cost of 500 million yuan, which is a large-scale war film.

Therefore, with a reliable creative team, if the reputation is still good when it is released, the box office is 4 billion, which is still very easy to achieve.

Fourth, the analysis of the date and free three days.

The scheduled time of "Reinforcements Arrive Tomorrow" is meaningful, and there are three main types:

First of all, there are still 47 days before the release time on May 14, which coincides with the 47-day defense of Hengyang. It's our vast audience of movie fans.

Secondly, remembrance and remembrance.

In 2010, Fang Xianjue's eldest son, Fang Liu, who was already 80 years old, resolutely returned to Hengyang, settled in this hero city in his later years, and died of illness on June 28, 2019.

Fang Luo was born in 1930, his father was 14 years old when he fought in the defense of Hengyang, and in 1949, Fang Luo went to Taiwan with his father, and later studied in the United States, and finally settled in Spain.

He grew up in the mainland in his childhood, and he especially missed his hometown at the end of his life, so when he was 80 years old, he decided to return to China to settle down, and he did not choose his birthplace of Suzhou, Anhui, but chose Hengyang, where his father had fought.

After returning to China, Fang Luo began to explore the real history of the Battle of Hengyang, took care of the veterans who had participated in the battle, and provided a lot of real historical information for this film.

And the release date of "Reinforcements Arrive Tomorrow" happens to be June 28, which is also the day Fang Luo died.

In addition, this year happens to be the 80th anniversary of the Battle of Hengyang, and as mentioned at the beginning of this article, Liu Heping wants to leave something for Hengyang, and he wrote this play to remember this battle and commemorate these soldiers who sacrificed their lives for the country.

Finally, the main theme film focuses on July 1st and summer files.

There are hits every summer file, the most typical is Wu Jing's "Wolf Warrior 2", when this film was released, it happened to be when India was making trouble on our border, and the movie stimulated everyone's patriotic enthusiasm.

In the follow-up, all units were busy organizing chartered screenings, so the box office exploded at once.

"Reinforcements Arrive Tomorrow" happens to be a main theme movie, restoring the real Battle of Hengyang, I think, when the time comes, there will be no few people who will charter the movie.

In order to thank the people of Hengyang, Liu Heping held a premiere in Hengyang and provided free three-day viewing, which is the first time that a domestic blockbuster has been provided for free.

At present, Hengyang has a population of 6.49 million, and cinemas around the country will definitely be surrounded in those three days, and the number of moviegoers will skyrocket, which has played a good role in stimulating box office growth in other regions.

At present, the number of viewers of "Wolf Warrior 2" is 159 million, and it is hoped that the number of viewers of "Reinforcements Arriving Tomorrow" can surpass "Wolf Warrior 2".

Fifth, analyze the strength of the acting school with well-known traffic stars.

Many directors are now using this routine, and "Legend", which has just been scheduled to be released on July 12, is Jackie Chan with Zhang Yixing and Guli Nazha, and many movies have failed to perform at the box office.

In "Changjin Lake", Wu Jing took Yi Yang Qianxi; In "Man Jianghong", Shen Teng and Zhang Yi translated with Yi Yang Qianxi; In "Ten Thousand Miles Home", Zhang Yi took Wang Junkai, and the box office was soft.

The main creators of "Reinforcements Arrive Tomorrow" are Yu Hewei, Yang Yang, Wan Qian, Wang Jinsong, Yin Fang, Li Guangjie, and Tan Kai. Among them, Yu Hewei and Wang Jinsong belong to the ranks of powerful acting schools.

The second actor Liu Heping chose Yang Yang, simply put, Yu Hewei took Yang Yang, and now many traffic stars are collapsing, Fan Fan is stepping on the sewing machine, and Fengfeng has no such person.

Some began to enter the big screen, such as Lu Han's "Shanghai Fortress" became the laughing stock of everyone, the box office and word of mouth hit the street, Lu Han's follow-up film and television resources decreased sharply, and capital did not dare to praise him rashly.

In 2020, he and Jackie Chan starred in "Pioneer" with a budget cost of 400 million, and the final box office was only 294 million, with a Douban score of 4.4 points, which is also a double fight.

In recent years, many traffic stars have successfully transformed, such as Yi Yang Qianxi, Zhu Yilong and last year's Zhang Yixing, etc., Yang Yang got such a blockbuster this time, with Liu Heping in full control, and with Mr. Yu Hewei, the box office will definitely be successful.

Yang Yang will also be able to surpass Lu Han and get the first box office word-of-mouth masterpiece on the big screen.

VI. Conclusion.

Based on the above five points of analysis, Brother Brown concluded that the box office of "Reinforcements Arrive Tomorrow" is stable at 4 billion!

In other words, Jia Ling's movie "Hot and Hot" created during the Spring Festival can get 3.4 billion at the box office, and "Reinforcements Arrive Tomorrow" is another very meaningful war film, it's not too much to get 4 billion at the box office, do you agree?

Finally, I conclude this article with a poem by the contemporary inspirational poet Zhou Kuicheng.

Every inch of land will fight for every inch of blood,

Alone for four or seven days.

Remembering the history of the martyrs,

Defend mountains and rivers and defend sovereignty.

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Personal opinion, for reference only