2023 will be a very difficult year for Russia.
Under the courage of the Wagner Corps and the Guards, the Russian army began to improve a little on the front, but at this time, Wagner's boss Prigozhin suddenly turned back and took Putin's army in the name of Qingjun.
When the henchmen became a big trouble, the morale that the Russian army had managed to accumulate collapsed instantly, and it coincided with this juncture, Ukraine took the opportunity to launch a summer counteroffensive and captured many positions.
Fortunately, Lukashenko took the initiative and persuaded Prigozhin to withdraw his troops, and the rebellion was quelled.
On the other hand, the fierce offensive of the Ukrainian army was also forced to end with the arrival of the rainy season in Donbass.
Although Ukraine's counteroffensive has a strong sense of showmanship, the actual effect is actually very average.
However, because the global discourse power is in the hands of the Western media, the international public opinion environment presents a picture that Ukraine is brave and Russia is about to collapse.
Many people also believe that if it were not for the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in September, Israel snatched most of the Western aid from Ukraine, and made the follow-up offensive of the Ukrainian army weak, and Russia might not be able to switch from defense to offensive this year.
Even if Russia turns the tide of the war, they still feel that the Russian government will be swallowed up by the surging public opinion at any time when the domestic contradictions are getting deeper and deeper.
For example, pension issues.
Since 2014, the pensions paid by the Russian people have been frozen, and since then they have been frozen until the end of 2023 after several extensions.
In 2018, the monthly pension payment shrank by 30%, from 30,000 rubles to 10,000 rubles.
In a poll on pensions, less than 50% of people still have expectations for their future pensions, and 40% of them decided to "forget to pay their pensions".
Others choose to continue working after retirement because they don't have the money to enjoy their old age.
This is the true meaning of living to old age, working until old age.
The backlash of the policy is obvious.
Since coming to power in 1999, Putin has never left the core of power, and his country's prestige has always been very high.
But according to a 2018 poll, the Emperor's approval rating fell from 82 percent to 65 percent, the lowest in nearly 20 years.
Not only pensions, but all large and small industries in Russia have declined to varying degrees, the economy has come to a standstill, multinational groups and oligarchs are getting fatter and fatter, and the people at the bottom are getting poorer and poorer.
This gives the Western media a good handle, and in their writing, this is the evil result of dictatorship, and facts speak louder than words.
But they all ignore one point, the main culprit that has led to Russia's economic depression and dismal people's livelihood is the long-term cold sanctions imposed by the West.
Since the Yeltsin era, Russia has wanted to integrate into the Western system, and Putin repeatedly proposed to the United States to join NATO before 2009, but all of them were rejected.
Although the Soviet Union collapsed, the United States was still not at ease and vowed to do everything possible to weaken Russia, so for more than a decade, the West has been doing things in Russia, inciting color revolutions, and intends to reproduce the collapse of the Soviet Union again.
However, history has a memory.
At that time, the Russian people just listened to the demagogy of the pro-American faction and Western forces, and sacrificed the wealth of the Soviet Union for more than 70 years, resulting in Russia having to sell its resources to make a living for so many years, and life was miserable.
Now European and American countries actually want them to be fooled again, and they really treat Russians as leeks with no memory.
On the eve of the Russia-Ukraine war, the whole of Russia was filled with strong nationalist tendencies, and the number of marchers in support of the military operation against Ukraine was as high as 200,000.
The marches against the war in Moscow and St. Petersburg numbered only a few thousand people, and most of the pro-Western factions were silent.
When the country is in a desperate situation, those who remain neutral and pro-Western gradually realize that no matter how much they make overtures to Europe and the United States, they will not be soft when they pick up the butcher's knife until the whole of Russia is dismembered and destroyed.
Since both horizontal and vertical will be suppressed by sanctions, it is better to fight hard, and maybe there will be miracles.
The monstrous public opinion has been twisted into a ball, and the power that has erupted is incomparably amazing, and whether the establishment wants to do it or not, the only thing they can do is to follow the trend, not to mention, they can also transfer domestic contradictions by the way.
After flipping the table, Putin's domestic approval rating rose to 75 percent. Before the start of the Russian election, 75% of the people surveyed expressed support for Putin's re-election.
The end result is not surprising.
It can be said that in the eyes of the Russian people, it is still acceptable to fight a little longer and spend a little more on the military, as long as the Russian army does not lose, after all, this is a Jedi counterattack that gambles on the fortunes of the country.
In order to maintain morale, it is essential to improve the treatment of soldiers, which Russia and Ukraine deeply agree with, and they have opened books on each other in terms of improving the treatment.
On April 20, 2023, according to the German news agency dpa, Ukrainian servicemen fighting on the front line can receive an additional allowance of about 2,710 US dollars per month, plus a basic salary, which is converted into about 22,000 yuan.
Not to be outdone, Russia has raised the salary of front-line soldiers to 18,000 yuan, as well as welfare allowances in housing, medical care and children's education.
It is worth mentioning that among the four major Russian legions, Wagner is a mercenary, and the salary is responsible for Prigozhin, who has deep pockets, so the treatment level of Wagner's soldiers will go to 24,000 yuan.
Although the pocket is shy and can no longer raise the level of treatment of soldiers, the Russian official still makes up for it through an additional reward mechanism.
For example, if you destroy a large enemy weaponry, you will receive a cash reward, including 100,000 rubles for destroying or capturing a tank, and 300,000 rubles for an aircraft.
Since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, more than 10,000 servicemen have received bonuses from the Russian Ministry of Defense.
One of the soldiers was awarded 1 million rubles for destroying a German-made "Leopard" tank, which is said to have been paid by a Russian private company, which to a certain extent reflects the people's wishes.
In March this year, the Russian government also drafted a draft law to give all soldiers participating in the special military operation against Ukraine the treatment of "patriotic veterans", receive double pensions, and enjoy free phone calls, medical treatment and recuperation.
Someone asked, isn't it the duty of a soldier to defend the country to protect the family, why do you have to use monetary incentives to maintain it.
Because the Russian and Ukrainian military uses a contract military system unique to the West, that is, a professional military system. In peacetime, the basic salary of a soldier is only 3,000 yuan, which can be said to be very low.
When the enemy adopts the Halo policy to encourage soldiers, if they still expect their own soldiers to play with their lives with a meager salary, unless they are afraid that they will not lose fast enough.
After rolling up the salary, in the area of pensions, Russia and Ukraine are also changing ways to increase the weight.
Ukraine has announced that it will pay $500,000 to the families of the fallen soldiers.
In Russia, in March 2022, he announced that the standard pension was 7.42 million rubles, and then in 2023, Putin signed a presidential decree to pay an additional 5 million rubles.
In addition to salaries, incentives and pensions, there is also the high cost of training and equipping personnel, which amounts to $48 billion in personnel expenditures alone.
In addition, weapons and ammunition and other large amounts cannot be sustained by financial revenue.
As a result, Russia can only take money from the National Wealth Fund, and as the country's last money bag, it is getting deflated day by day.
Ukraine is more pure, it only needs to spend money, and you don't have to think too much about where to pay for it, anyway, NATO countries will find a way to make it up.
But from the second half of 2023, seeing that the situation between Russia and Ukraine has eroded like this, and Israel has also added a new pit, so Western countries don't want to pay much money, and occasionally giving some assistance is like the last straw that breaks the camel's back.
Zelensky has also fallen from 10,000 people to 10,000 people, so it's hard to say whether the sky-high pension promised by Ukraine can be issued.
Perhaps it is only possible to make a fuss about the casualty figures.
On the second anniversary of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Zelensky said that the casualty ratio of the Ukrainian army and the Russian army was 1 to 5, so the question is, since the combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian army is so strong, why is the situation still rotten like this?
It can only be said that this number is odd.
The business of the West is very loud, and the Russian-Ukrainian war is just a business for them, but if half of the casualty ratio is real, they will not withdraw so quickly and run away.
Reducing the number of casualties to save the pension can only be omitted from the victory in the end, and according to the latest war situation, Ukraine is in the stage of fighting and retreating.
On the other hand, Russia's side, although it has an advantage in the situation, there are also many hidden dangers.
The country's economy has long since changed to a wartime model, and the equipment of military factories is about to turn to smoke, but the bullets and weapons produced cannot be exported to generate income, and have to be used as consumables on the front line.
The GDP generated by this model is very considerable, but as long as it fails to achieve victory and harvest the spoils of war for one day, it is purely an empty GDP, with only sound and no substance.
At the same time, the Russian central bank's frenzied interest rate hikes and the issuance of additional treasury bonds can indeed bring emergency funds, but the bubble produced is also terrifyingly large, and how to smooth out the post-war excesses is another incomparably big problem for those in power.
The only prerequisite for solving all of the above problems is to achieve victory as soon as possible.
Of course, Russia wants to end the war immediately, after all, to fight the war with the pension of the entire population, that is to use a little less.
Temporarily freeze pensions and lend them to the state to fight wars, which is acceptable to the common people.
But if all of them are hoarded and cannot be replenished, then the problem is very serious, and you must know that many old people have proletarian complexes.
Under these circumstances, a personnel change by the Russian government has aroused speculation from all sides.
Former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu was appointed secretary of the Russian Security Council, and was succeeded by First Deputy Prime Minister Belousov.
In response to Shoigu's personnel appointments and dismissals, some people are going to rise and fall secretly, and the future is bleak; Others considered the Emperor's successor, even though Master Shao was only three years younger than the Emperor.
Putting aside the political hustle and bustle for the time being, as far as personnel changes are concerned, they actually include Russia's judgment and strategic adjustment of the current situation.
In addition to being deputy prime minister, Belousov is also an economic strongman, and letting him take over as defense minister means that in the future, Russia wants to seek a balance between military and economic aspects, strive to stabilize the economic situation, and recover while fighting.
For Russia, it is not known when the war will end, but it is crucial to guarantee a soft landing for the economy.