Some scholars have analyzed that China and the United States will hold each other for at least three stages before 2050, and finally reach a state of coexistence and co-governance, and by 2030 is the United States is caught up by China, resulting in its psychological imbalance and sense of crisis outbreak of concentrated time period, especially the United States is facing the challenge of economic, financial and various contradictions, the United States may not be able to hold back its eagerness, and do not hesitate to further intensify the contradictions between China and the United States. After this year's U.S. election, a new government will be formed next year, and both the Republican far-right and the Democratic establishment will launch a more fierce attack on China. Under such circumstances, China should do its utmost to withstand the onslaught of the United States, extend the buffer period in Sino-US relations as much as possible, and then postpone the final showdown or even a head-on conflict between China and the United States, and push the Sino-US game to the second and third stages.
Recently, the Observer Network published an article entitled "The United States' Internal and External Troubles at the Moment, Just Indicate that a Fierce Attack is Coming Next Year", pointing out that there will be three stages of strategic stalemate between China and the United States in the next 30 years, and in each stage, Sino-US relations will be characterized by a situation of alternating between a longer strategic intensification and a shorter strategic buffer. The first stage is the first decade from 2020 to 2030, when China's economic aggregate catches up with the United States; The second decade is to catch up with the United States in terms of comprehensive national strength; The third decade saw China catch up with the United States in major areas, including major science and technology.
Such a judgment is in line with China's previous development strategy and the relevant predictions made by international think tanks on the Sino-US game. The year 2049 is the centenary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, and China has previously proposed to achieve the goal of becoming a modern and powerful country by the centenary of the founding of the People's Republic of China and realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. In addition, according to the 2020 strategy report previously released by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a U.S. think tank, the time period of strategic competition between China and the United States is set from 2020 to 2050, and it is believed that these 30 years are a critical period for the all-round game between China and the United States. Therefore, the article believes that the 30-year strategic stalemate between China and the United States is not groundless.
So what is "strategic stalemate"? As the name suggests, in the game between China and the United States, there is a relative balance in the balance of power, and no one can overpower anyone, which is stalemate, and it is a long period of strategic time, and it is divided into three decades, so it is called "strategic stalemate". In fact, this was the first classic concept in "On Protracted War", but the difference is that at that time, China and Japan were in a state of life-and-death war, and the two sides fought each other, and the Chinese people won the victory in the War of Resistance against Japan through strategic defense, strategic stalemate and strategic counteroffensive; Second, the next stage of Sino-US strategic stalemate is not a strategic counteroffensive, but a relatively peaceful state of coexistence and co-governance in Sino-US relations.
However, as we all know, the efforts made by the United States in the past few decades to maintain its hegemony, including foreign aggression and financial plunder, have greatly consumed or even overdrawn its national strength, coupled with the transfer of manufacturing outflows, it is impossible to return to the "glorious period" after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 90s of the last century. With the passage of time, the United States has become troubled by internal and external troubles, and there are three potential crises that have grown:
The first is the debt crisis. At present, the U.S. federal debt has reached $34.7 trillion, which is 142% of the U.S. GDP for the whole year of 2023, and even the repayment of debt interest will cost one-third of the annual budget, which is equivalent to more than $100,000 in debt for each of the 330 million people in the United States. The United States' practice of "eating what is needed" has caused a huge deficit in the federal finances, the two parties continue to make a fuss about the debt ceiling, and the US government has faced the crisis of "shutdown" many times. The United States is the most terrible "addiction" to borrowing, high debt, rising total debt, will inevitably pull up the interest rate of the whole society, corporate borrowing costs rise, investment is relatively reduced, resulting in the weakness of related industries, will seriously drag down the development of the United States manufacturing industry.
The second is the economic crisis. Huge inflation and stock market bubbles have made it difficult for the U.S. economy to survive, and if it continues, it will inevitably burst or collapse at some high point. In particular, the United States has taken advantage of the hegemony of the strong dollar to unscrupulously over-issue currency and unlimited quantitative easing, and to pass on its own inflation crisis to other countries and the world market, but this is not omnipotent, and the current bond market, stock market, and real estate market in the United States are full of false bubbles, and once they deteriorate or even be punctured, the US economic growth will inevitably suffer from the backlash of the high asset bubble and become its own gravedigger.
The third is the strategic crisis. Blinken's previous visit to the Middle East is to try to stabilize his foothold in the Middle East, and Ukraine seems to have become a "bottomless pit" for U.S. and European aid, which has also caused the intensification of contradictions and differences in the United States, especially at this fierce moment of the election.
In the face of this situation, whether the Republican Trump or the Democratic Biden wins the election at the end of this year, and the new administration will come to power next year, that is, in 2025, they may launch a fierce attack on China, and China and the United States will enter a new period of strategic intensification. In particular, the new U.S. administration will be in power until at least 2029, which is close to the end of the first phase, and the pressure on the United States on the economic aggregate is enormous.
In fact, in the past few years since Biden took office, the U.S. government has shifted from the "irrational anti-China" of the previous Trump era, that is, the hardline against China advocated by the far right wing of the Trump team, such as Pompeo, Bolton and Bannon, to "rational suppression", that is, the "precision strike" advocated by Blinken, Yellen, Raimondo, etc., and paid more attention to encircling China and striving not to "inadvertently hurt" other areas, such as Biden's "small courtyard and high wall" and "decoupling and breaking the chain" focusing on the high-tech field. Therefore, there has also been an alternation of the Sino-US strategic intensification period and the strategic buffer period. In short, if Biden wins re-election, he will only continue the current policy, and may have to intensify it, and the intensity of the "precision strike" will be heavier; If Trump comes to power again, his attitude towards China may be tougher, and his suppression and containment of China will be more violent.