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Text/Video: Sanxiang Metropolis Daily All-Media Reporter Bu Lan Correspondent Tu Xinrui
Following the opening of Hangzhou's purchase restrictions, Xi'an also followed suit and lifted the purchase restrictions on the same day. For a time, a rare wave of "relaxation" was set off across the country, which involved the purchase of houses, the identification standards for the first home, and the trade-in policy. At the same time, real estate stocks also broke out in an all-round way, and in terms of H-shares, Shimao Group once soared by 90%.
(In the marketing center of a project in Changsha, citizens are consulting about buying a house.) ）
What is the impact of policy relaxation on the real estate market in various places? How will the follow-up policies be strengthened? On May 15, the reporter launched an investigation and interview.
Phenomenon: 23 cities across the country have completely canceled purchase restrictions
Like dominoes, restrictions on real estate purchases are gradually being relaxed.
On May 9, the hot cities of Hangzhou and Xi'an both announced the complete cancellation of housing purchase restrictions.
On May 9, Hangzhou issued a new policy, proposing seven measures to optimize the supply of residential land, comprehensively cancel housing purchase restrictions, and strengthen housing credit support. This also means that the seven-and-a-half-year era of purchase restrictions in Hangzhou has officially ended. On the same day, Xi'an also issued a notice to completely cancel the purchase restriction measures, and residents will no longer review the qualifications for purchasing newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing in the city.
As early as April this year, Changsha, a "top student in property market regulation", also fully relaxed the seven-year property market purchase restriction policy, clarified that the city will buy a house, and will no longer review the qualifications of home buyers; If you buy a new house by "trade-in", you can enjoy the down payment ratio and mortgage interest rate of the first house in accordance with the policy of "recognising the house but not recognising the loan".
"Changsha's purchase restriction policy started in 2017, when I just came to Changsha to work, and there were Hefei real estate speculation groups and others who came to Changsha to buy houses like crazy. After the purchase restriction was opened, investors also went and had no return. Mr. Zhou, who is engaged in the financial industry, sighed, "Seven years have passed, and the housing prices in Changsha have always been stable, which is inseparable from the purchase restriction and price restriction policies at that time." ”
The optimization of policies has allowed many hot cities to enter the era of "unlimited purchase" of real estate.
According to incomplete statistics from the Zhuge Data Research Center, as of May 9, a total of more than 50 cities across the country have relaxed the purchase restriction policy, including Xi'an, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Foshan, Dongguan, Xiamen, Nanjing, Suzhou and other 23 cities have completely canceled the purchase restriction. First-tier cities have partially relaxed purchase restrictions, such as Beijing relaxing purchase restrictions outside the Fifth Ring Road, Shenzhen shortening the social security payment period for non-registered people, and Guangzhou relaxing purchase restrictions of more than 120 square meters.
Impact: Market activity has increased, but there are mostly wait-and-see people
The gradual withdrawal of purchase restrictions has made real estate stocks that have been silent for a long time begin to "raise their eyebrows".
Under the influence of various policies, the A-share real estate sector rose sharply on May 10, and Binjiang Group, CCCC Real Estate, China Merchants Shekou and other companies rose intraday. Hong Kong stock Shimao Group soared by more than 90% intraday, and companies such as South China City, Zhuguang Holdings, and Jingrui Holdings rose by more than 30% intraday.
In some cities, market activity has also increased significantly after the purchase restriction has been withdrawn. Mr. Zhou, who works in the suburbs of Hangzhou, found that the price of the property he was concerned about had dropped by 300,000 yuan. "At the beginning, I entered when the house price was high, and now the price of this suite has been 'cut in half', and it seems that I can buy the bottom, but I still want to see it again."
Like Mr. Zhou, there are quite a few homebuyers who are ready to make a move. According to data from the Hangzhou Municipal Bureau of Housing Security and Real Estate, on May 9, 160 new commercial houses in Hangzhou were sold, an increase of 8 units from May 8, an increase of 5.3% month-on-month, and 92.8% higher than the average level of the past week.
As a hot city in the northwest, Xi'an's comprehensive cancellation of purchase restrictions has also attracted a lot of attention. A number of intermediaries in Xi'an said that after the implementation of the new policy, there were more people looking at houses, but most of them took a wait-and-see attitude. Zhuge housing data shows that as of 19:00 on May 13, there were 3,264 new listings in Xi'an on that day, up 5.73% month-on-month, and 1,354 listings were reduced, down 0.17% month-on-month.
From the perspective of Changsha, after the relaxation of purchase restrictions, the number of visits to some new housing projects increased. Shanshan, a real estate consultant in the era of the leader of the long house, said that after the policy was implemented, although the transaction volume has not changed significantly for the time being, the number of visits has increased exponentially, "On weekends, the general number of visits is about more than 10 batches, and it has increased to more than 30 batches in the week when the new deal is implemented. ”
The "DNA" of the market has moved, but it still needs time to ferment. According to the analysis of Hunan Central Plains Research Institute, the trading volume in Changsha in April rose month-on-month to a small monthly peak this year, but there is still some pressure on decentralization, and the cycle has risen to nearly 18 months.
Reason: When the market is cold, inventory pressure forces purchase restrictions to withdraw
China's property market "purchase restriction order" is about to exit, why has this historic policy come to an end?
On April 30, the "Residential Inventory Report of 100 Cities" released by the E-House Research Institute showed that in March 2024, the average destocking period of new commercial housing in 100 cities across the country was 25.3 months. This means that at the current sales rate, it will take 25.3 months for the inventory of new homes in 100 cities to be digested, while the reasonable period for new commercial housing should be 12 to 14 months.
From the perspective of specific cities, data from the China Index Research Institute show that from January to March this year, the transaction area of the five districts in Changsha was 692,000 square meters. Although the transaction scale in March rebounded slowly, the transaction scale was at a low level compared with the same period in previous years.
The Xi'an property market is also under pressure. In the first quarter alone, the inventory level of new residential buildings in Xi'an has risen to 12.53 million square meters, and the decommissioning period has reached 12.8 months. From January to April, the transaction volume of new houses in Hangzhou also declined significantly, with 1.883 million square meters, and the popularity of new houses continued to decline.
"Since the beginning of this year, despite the continued easing of policy, market confidence has been insufficient, and demand and purchasing power have been sluggish." The relevant person in charge of CRIC Research Institute said that the industry expectation has not been significantly repaired, and the overall trend of the market is not clear. Judging from the previous trend, the market supply and demand will not warm significantly in the short term, and corporate sales continue to face greater pressure.
"Now is also an opportune time to lift the purchase restrictions, and people have a strong will. At the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on April 30, it was once again emphasized that it is necessary to study and digest the stock of real estate as a whole. In the local area, in the face of new supply and demand, the sales side continues to be under pressure and other problems, the relaxation of purchase restrictions can stimulate the market and enhance the overall activity. Mr. Zhou, the person in charge of a real estate company in Changsha, pointed out that this move is also to fully open the channel for foreign buyers to buy houses, attract buyers in the surrounding areas, and inject new impetus into the market.
In addition, in order to destock, not only the release of purchase restrictions, but also the linkage of primary and secondary housing in many cities, exchanging the old for the new. According to incomplete statistics from the China Index Research Institute, since last year, 39 cities across the country have expressed their support for the "trade-in" of commercial housing. In April this year, Zhengzhou said that it would mobilize state-owned assets to enter the bureau to improve the efficiency of "trade-in" housing; Changsha has also promoted the "trade-in" of housing; There is also a "trade-in" behavior that the market has taken the initiative to launch......
Observation: The key to the release of demand depends on whether housing price expectations can be stabilized
One stone has stirred up a thousand waves, and the purchase restrictions in many hot cities have been relaxed, which has also started the "war of destocking" in the property market.
For the effect of the policy, industry insiders pointed out that in the short term, the new deal will have a certain stimulus effect. In the long run, the effect of the policy remains to be seen, "with the change of the economic situation, the market supply and demand relationship has also changed significantly, and the investment attribute of the house has been diluted." The growth rate of high-income people's allocation of real estate has dropped from the peak of 30% to 3%, coupled with the frequent news of high-end real estate price declines, the expectation of rising housing prices has changed, the liquidity of houses has also weakened, and people have begun to reduce the allocation of real estate. Therefore, simply withdrawing from the purchase restriction will not necessarily bring about a significant release of demand, and the key depends on whether the housing price expectation can be stabilized. ”
"Xi'an, Chengdu and other cities with relatively good property market performance have successively canceled purchase restrictions, which means that some high-energy cities are also continuing to adjust and optimize their control policies, and it is expected that other cities will follow suit, market sentiment will be further boosted, and it will also help accelerate the pace of recovery of the real estate market." Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, said.
Yan Yuejin believes that in May, all localities will continue to promote the "one city, one policy" and policy relaxation, involving the purchase policy, the first home identification standard policy, the second-hand housing sales policy, the lottery policy, the settlement policy, the high-quality housing policy, the land supply and the introduction of transaction policies. The key point is not even relaxation, but "total cancellation".
Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the China Index Research Institute, expects that many cities will continue to optimize the purchase restriction policy in the future, especially in second-tier cities, and the pace of adjustment of the purchase restriction policy may be accelerated.