Guolian Securities's daily limit did not bring about a big rise in the securities sector, but the securities sector fell sharply, dragging down the index, fortunately, the small and medium-sized theme index quickly surpassed the weight index, so the number of rising stocks began to increase, and the disk was not too ugly because of the decline of the index.
To be honest, the trend of this morning is still very disappointing, at least rush first, and then smash the plate, but unfortunately there is no momentum to rush up, directly smash down, this weakness is more than expected, but this reduces the risk of being pitted.
After yesterday's market, many people are bullish on today's market, and the result is like this, how to understand today's trend, let's make an analysis:
1. What factors are affected by the unexpected trend?
First, securities are undoubtedly the main culprits of today's smashing, and the faces of securities scumbags can be seen at a glance.
Yesterday I thought that it was difficult for securities to rise continuously, but in the afternoon it was pulled up, beyond expectations, but we must see that securities have long lost the hearts of the people, lost the role of the market, although his ups and downs can affect the market, but can not play the role of a weather vane.
The rise in securities yesterday afternoon did not bring about a rebound in the index, indicating that some weights were smashed by the rise of securities, and everyone thought that the securities that were most likely to drive the index up today became the culprit of the smashing. There are two main reasons, one is the normal fall of the securities Silianyang, the stimulus brought by the resumption of trading overdrafted by Silianyang in advance, and the other is that the good is all negative, and the securities are really not bullish in addition to the expectation of restructuring.
Second, the United States has increased tariffs on China's electric vehicles.
The White House announced on the 14th that it will impose tariffs on a range of Chinese goods, including steel and aluminum, semiconductors, electric vehicles, batteries, critical minerals, solar cells, cranes, and medical supplies, and the new measures will affect $18 billion worth of goods. According to the White House's official website, tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles will be increased to 100% from the current 25%.
For China's electric vehicles, in recent months, it has been criticized by the United States, believing that there is overcapacity in China's electric vehicles. To tell the truth, China as a big consumer of automobiles, there is still a lot of room for the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, saying that overcapacity is just a reason for others to suppress you, the key to China's electric vehicle technology development speed is amazing, the technical level is leading, the price is low, the performance is good, and soon occupied the market, it is inevitable to have an impact on other people's automobile industry, out of protectionist views, it will definitely be suppressed. Now the sudden imposition of tariffs will definitely have a great impact on the export of electric vehicles, not only affecting the auto sector, but also bringing a certain negative effect on the market.
Third, in fact, it is still the internal adjustment requirements of the market.
No matter how much external factors are discussed, it is the key to dump the pot, and the adjustment of the momentum of the market itself is the key. If it can't go up, it has to fall, there is no momentum to go long, and at the same time, there is no blockbuster positive stimulus, the market can only smash downwards and accumulate the momentum of going long, which is completely normal. Of course, there are several main reasons for the support adjustment, one is that the amount can not be enlarged for a long time, repeatedly shrinking, yesterday's volume can shrink sharply, this morning continued to shrink, there is no amount of energy, indicating that no one is willing to enter the market, there is no amount of energy The market lacks aggressiveness, the second is that the hot spot is repeatedly switched and rotated, and the funds are shot for a place, which is obviously a guerrilla, which is completely the rhythm of the day, how can it go up, there are a large number of individual stocks every day, which affects the enthusiasm of the funds to do long. The third is that there is no money-making effect, yesterday it was seen that the stocks rose more and fell less, but the real rise of the stocks is too little, although there was a situation of more stocks rising and falling less this morning, but the amount can shrink, the real big rise of the stocks is very few, even the local money-making effect can not be formed, such a disk is not able to inspire the confidence of funds to do long.
On the whole, I have been not optimistic about the short-term market recently, and repeatedly reminded everyone that in addition to daring to suck low to improve the winning rate, do not chase up, including today's pre-market, I think that if the opening is directly rushed, it will still rush up and fall, and the result is that the opening is not even rushed, proving that the market is too weak. In fact, the reason why I am not optimistic in the near future is not how powerful, I have repeatedly started from the three elements of the rise, the amount of energy, the main line, and the money-making effect to interpret, so I think the market will not rise. Besides, every day domestic capital smashes the market, and the trend of foreign capital is not visible in the market, most people have no goal, you look at domestic capital, you can only retreat every day, how to do more.
2. If the short-term can't rise, where can I enter the market if it falls?
In fact, this question is difficult to answer, except for a small gap left below the Shanghai Composite Index at present, but will it rebound if the gap is filled?
Of course, not necessarily, from the technical point of view, breaking the 5-day, 10-day moving average has weakened, since the Shanghai Index hit a new high, the index has continued to form a divergence, and it is still unable to resolve the divergence, and the amount of energy is still shrinking, which is more troublesome.
From my understanding, judging market changes by simply looking at what index, moving average, and gap is inevitably a sword. Since I am optimistic about the medium and long term, but now the market can not rise, funds are reluctant to enter the market, this position must come to a rapid kill, the formation of a certain panic disk, only funds are willing to enter the operation, it is impossible to not go up or down in this position, only when the old balance is broken, will give some room for funds to move.
Only by filling this gap first, and at the same time accompanying the action of killing and falling in large quantities, the winning rate of entering the market to buy the bottom will be greater at this time.
I have repeatedly emphasized that the gap on the first day after the holiday is not a reflection of the market's self-long momentum, it is completely stimulated by the news, and it is not a breakthrough gap, so it must be filled. Nor can filling vacancies be the ultimate goal of shorts.
The three elements of bottom-copying:
The first is to quickly fill the gap downward, the second is that there must be a panic killing of the volume, and the third is the rapid increase in the number of falling limits.
Only in this way will the winning rate of short-term dipping be greater. There is no absolute in the stock market, only to deal with it, you can only grasp a relative opportunity, there is no absolute opportunity waiting for you, if there is an absolute, then everyone can make money.
3. Will it be pulled up in the afternoon?
To tell the truth, looking at the continuous shrinking of the amount of energy, the amount of energy today is likely to break 800 billion, there is no capital willing to enter the market, the momentum is insufficient, everyone is waiting, but no one is willing to enter the market, the market only goes down and smashes again, no one supports the market, then it has to fall, and the opportunity is greater after falling, so I think the probability of pulling up in the afternoon is not large, and the probability of smashing down is greater.