Special analyst Liu Congxin
After a continuous decline in the Kannai bean market, protein companies purchased a large number of "second-class" bean sources, which obviously supported the bottom market, and the purchase price bottomed out. Affected by the market in the Guannei, the circulation of beans in the northeast producing areas has suffered a significant setback, but the spring planting in full swing has made the purchase enter a semi-closed state.
After a brief hiatus from rainfall in southern China, a new round of heavy rainfall returned last weekend. The high temperature and humidity environment may further inhibit the consumption of soy products, but due to the continuous disaster invasion, vegetables in some areas may be damaged by water to varying degrees, or the transformation of soybean sources will be increased in an uncertain time in the future.
After the continuous decline of the bean market in the Guannai, the large purchase of "second-class" bean sources by protein companies has obviously supported the bottom market, and the price of high-grade commodity beans flowing into the terminal market is significantly lower than that of similar bean sources in Northeast China, and market operators around the country have given up wait-and-see. Since the launch of the new season soybeans last year, there has never been such a fast-paced circulation scene, which has caused the on-demand sources in various producing areas to lose inventory, and the purchase price has bottomed out. Affected by the customs market, the circulation of beans in the northeast producing areas has suffered a significant setback, but the spring planting in full swing has made the purchase enter a semi-closed state, and the grassroots bean source has little surplus, traders are still bullish on the future market of high-grade commodity beans.
The speculation about the flooding in Brazil has died down, and the latest supply and demand report of the United States Department of Agriculture has significantly amplified the bearish impact on the bean market. All kinds of domestic reserve soybean auctions round after round, in the near future, the external disk will lose the source of boost, its weak pattern or to the spot market to varying degrees, the north and south bean market to appear obvious rise still has greater resistance.
The price drop is unusual
The Kannai bean market bottomed out and rebounded
From late March to early May, in just one and a half months, the mainstream price of "mixed flower beans" in Suzhou, Shandong, Henan and Anhui beans in the Guannei bean area fell from 5200~5300 yuan/ton to 4700~4800 yuan/ton, and the "second-class" bean source fell by as much as 700~800 yuan/ton. The inflow of commercial soybeans into the terminal market is significantly lower than the price of similar Northeast beans, which makes many soybean products enterprises tend to transform the source of beans in the Guannai. As the summer harvest approaches, soybean farmers are no longer reluctant to sell, and the purchase volume has been lower than the outgoing volume, the current protein beans are constrained by the price of the factory and stabilized, and the purchase price of high-grade commercial beans bottomed out and rebounded slightly.
Since this week, the summer harvest in the Yangtze River basin has been launched, and the remaining beans in Anqing area of southern Anhui have been sold off for vacancy, and the bean sources that can be used as commodities in normal years are also sold to protein enterprises, and the local net bulk grain loading price is only 4260~4320 yuan/ton, and the proportion of commercial beans has declined. At present, the balance of "mixed beans" in Hubei production area is still large, and many high-priced inventory sources in Shishou, public security, Jianli, Xiantao and other places are still unwilling to accept large losses, and the quotation market of 5600~5700 yuan/ton is difficult to accept. Although the price of "miscellaneous beans" in Tianmen, Zhongxiang, Shayang, Jingshan and other places in the Jianghan Plain is 5400~5600 yuan/ton, the price difference between Suzhou, Shandong, Henan and Anhui is large, and the circulation is low. In some areas, the loading price of "Ji Bean 12" has appeared 5800~5900 yuan/ton, and most of this kind of bean source comes from the merchant inventory purchased at the grassroots level, the initial gross grain warehousing price is 6200~6400 yuan/ton, and now the purchase price of outlets has fallen to 5300~5360 yuan/ton, and the quality requirements are demanding. As the summer harvest has been opened, the soybean purchase market will gradually turn light this week, and the soybean source in Hubei production areas will continue to move back, and it is expected that there will still be a certain number of new beans to be converted.
Anhui, Henan, Shandong bean area after the "May Day", the circulation of protein beans in various places accelerated, the price of bulk net grain after production is more than 4300 ~ 4400 yuan / ton, the enterprise price of 4680 ~ 4700 yuan / ton is basically stable, providing obvious support for the decline in the production area. The mainstream loading price of ordinary screening commodity beans in various producing areas is 4500~4640 yuan/ton, and the double gravity screening grain is 4700~4800 yuan/ton, and the selected beans and some handmade beans have fallen to 4840~4900 yuan/ton, and the inflow terminal is significantly lower than the same protein content of Northeast beans 100~200 yuan/ton. The source of goods has been received in the car and other goods, and the acquisition of the main body will raise the purchase price by 40~60 yuan/ton. It is worth noting that the acceleration of market circulation is not a boom in consumption, because its price is low enough to be accepted by the market, but a small rebound can, once it rises too fast, the price difference with Northeast beans narrows, and the terminal may be temporarily supplemented.
The loading price of "big milk white" and "black navel king" high-grade commodities in Jiangsu bean area is 6060~6100 yuan/ton, which is 20~40 yuan/ton higher than last week; The mainstream loading price of "mixed flower beans" with a protein content of more than 43% and good perception is 5160~5240 yuan/ton, up 40~60 yuan/ton; Some "mud flowers" are heavy, slightly "red-eyed" are purchased as "second-class" beans, and the bulk grain loading price is 4300~4400 yuan/ton. At the end of last week, purchases were down in all regions.
Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu and Shandong are approaching the summer harvest time, and after this round of fast-paced circulation, the pressure has been significantly released, and some soybean farmers still have the psychology of "waiting" after a slight rebound. With the decrease in the amount of goods, some buyers have slightly relaxed their quality control, and in early May, the bean source that was slightly defective and was classified as "second-class" began to be mixed as commercial beans. It is recommended that buyers in all producing areas continue to strictly control the quality, do not blindly raise the price of purchase, the pace of replenishment in the terminal market will slow down in the middle and late stages of this week, and a new cycle of waiting for conversion will be opened.
The pace of the auction of the state reserve has accelerated
The purchase and sale prices in the Northeast are stable and the volume is decreasing
Northeast production area spring planting into the climax, the acquisition of the market is in a "semi-closed" state, traders hold most of the more than 40% protein content of different grades of commodity beans, due to the grassroots bean source bottomed out, traders have a bullish psychology on the future market, but recently inhibited by the customs market, circulation has been significantly reduced. Since last week, the State Reserve has launched auctions in different forms, and although all of them have failed, this week's round after round of auctions, the reserve price is the key to determining the transaction result.
Last week, the bidding and one-way auction of the State Reserve and the auction of imported soybeans ended in all unsuccessful auctions, which fully shows that the market does not agree with its reserve price, and the pace of procurement and auction has accelerated significantly this week. On May 13, 24,800 tons of soybeans produced in 2023 were planned to be purchased in Heilongjiang, Jilin and Inner Mongolia in the form of bidding, and 13,296 tons of aged beans produced in 2020 and 2021 were auctioned on May 14, with targets distributed in Mudanjiang City and Jixi City.
On May 16, the National Grain Trading Center plans to auction 515,000 tons of imported soybeans, with a production period of 2024, 2022 and 2021, involving Fujian, Hebei, Guangxi, Hunan, Shandong, Sichuan, Hubei, Liaoning and Tianjin. Last week's auction was just a time when the outer market was speculating on the floods in Brazil, and the auction reserve price of 3940~3950 yuan/ton was all unsold; After the negative news of soybeans in the USDA supply and demand report is amplified, the reserve price adjustment will determine the outcome of this round of auction.
Affected by spring planting and the upcoming spring management, the soybean spot purchase in the northeast producing areas is almost closed, but traders hold a certain amount of commodity bean sources, and the bottom of the grassroots surplus grain is the reason why the main body of the bean market is bullish on the future, and the low-priced beans in the customs are favored by the market, and the continuous auction of the future state reserve will more or less affect the bullish sentiment of the market. This week, there are signs of increasing the arrival of Russian soybeans at Heihe Port, while Dongning Port has been continuously supplied through land transportation, which has a certain impact on the release of Northeast soybean spots. Therefore, the general commodity soybean in Northeast China is still running in a stable trend in the near future, and some high-protein varieties will rise slightly in the future.
Heilongjiang producing areas of Suihua, Nenjiang, Baoqing, Jiamusi, Jiansanjiang and other places, due to the large number of early bean sources into the terminal, traders in these areas are more bullish than the central and western regions, Jilin, Inner Mongolia and other places. At present, the loading price of 40%~40.5% protein content of tower selection commodity beans is still hovering between 4540~4640 yuan/ton; 41%~42% protein content of Taxuan beans accounted for the mainstream of 4760~4860 yuan/ton; The loading price of 42.5%~43% protein content of tower selection commodity beans is mostly in the range of 4900~5100 yuan/ton; Some of the high-grade tower beans with more than 44% protein content are priced between 5200~5300 yuan/ton. On the whole, although the circulation of various types of beans is weak, the prices tend to be significantly stable, and the quotations of the same quality beans are not as different as in the early stage.
External loss of boosting factor
In the future, the bean market will be "stable" and dominant
After a short pause in the large-scale rainfall in South China, a new round followed, and the high temperature and humidity environment shortened the shelf life of soybean products, but the water destruction of vegetables in some affected areas may be beneficial to the transformation of soybean products in the future; Affected by the temporary rise in the distribution price of imported soybeans, coupled with the fact that the price of soybeans in the customs has fallen to the bottom, the main body that cannot hold its breath has begun to increase its positions moderately. The main body of the terminal market concentrated on the purchase of the bean market, which stabilized the mainstream market of the bean market in the Guannai, but the market will face a new transformation cycle, coupled with the negative supply and demand report of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Affected by the floods in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, the hot speculation of the outer plate is "short-lived", and the distribution price of soybean net grain in the United States Gulf in various domestic ports was once reported to 4470 yuan/ton, 4260~4300 yuan/ton in the early stage.
This week, with the "switch" of the Heihe port, the import of Russian soybeans into the port has increased, and the release to the market will reduce the consumption of domestic soybean sources by the same amount. Since most of the main body of procurement in Russia is industry personnel, they have a comprehensive understanding of the quality and price of domestic beans, and the quality and price advantages of customs entry will be reflected.
With the acceleration of the pace of bidding of the State Reserve Douyuan, the initial unsuccessful auction is to observe the tolerance of the market, and the reserve price of the auction will definitely be adjusted in the future. Although the spot quality is dominant, the price of aged beans will also affect the spot release after the dominance, and the price will also be suppressed. The current trend of the domestic soybean market will still be stable, and there is still great resistance to a significant rise in the short term. It is suggested that the main body of the production and marketing area should look at the market outlook rationally, and should not blindly think that the price of beans can rise without a source, and continue to pay attention to the uncertain factors that appear at any time.