2023 is the first year of the implementation of the "new three classifications" of trusts, and the transformation and development of the industry has entered a critical stage. On May 15, focusing on the development of the industry last year, the Trust Industry Association organized an analysis conference to introduce the progress of the industry's transformation, the problems it faces, and the future direction, and respond to market concerns.
This is also the first time in recent years that the Trust Industry Association has held a press conference on the development of the industry, and it is expected to be normalized in the future.
The first financial reporter learned at the scene that in June ~ December last year, more than 30,000 trust products were established in the trust industry, with a scale of about 4.33 trillion yuan. Among them, the number and scale of asset service trusts have greatly exceeded those of asset management trusts, and the trust business has continued to return to its origins.
According to the main business data of trust companies as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2023 disclosed by the China Trust Association, in the fourth quarter of last year, the scale of trust assets continued to rise, the structure was further optimized, and the profit pressure was still on the side but there was a trend of easing.
However, while the scale and proportion of investment trusts continued to increase, the scale of financing trusts rebounded year-on-year, and the proportion increased slightly compared with the end of the third quarter of last year. In terms of capital investment, the scale of real estate trusts fell to less than one trillion yuan, a decrease of about 250 billion yuan from a year ago, a year-on-year decrease of more than 20%.
Financing trusts rose slightly, and the operating pressure is still there
According to the latest data, as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2023, the balance of trust assets was 23.92 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.28 trillion yuan from the end of September last year, continuing the upward trend, with a month-on-month and year-on-year increase of 5.65% and 13.17% respectively, and the year-on-year growth rate expanded.
Since the second quarter of 2022, the scale of trust assets has begun to stabilize and rebound, with the year-on-year growth rate turning from negative to positive, and by the end of 2023, it will maintain positive growth for 7 consecutive quarters, and the growth rate has gradually accelerated. Zeng Gang, director of the Shanghai Finance and Development Laboratory, said that this reflects that the transformation of the trust industry has achieved remarkable results since the new regulations on asset management.
Structural optimization is the key to the transformation of the industry, and it is also an important reason for the decline in the scale of the industry in the past period.
First of all, from the perspective of the source of funds, the scale of single-fund trusts with channel characteristics in the past continues to decrease. As of the end of the fourth quarter of last year, the scale of collective capital trust was 13.52 trillion yuan, accounting for 56.5%; the scale of single fund trust was 3.86 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.05 trillion yuan, or 2.64%, accounting for 16.12%; The scale of property trusts under management was 6.55 trillion yuan, an increase of 349.8 billion yuan from the end of September 2023, accounting for 27.37%.
Secondly, from the perspective of trust function, the dominance of investment business continued to strengthen, but the scale of financing trusts, which has been under pressure from supervision, rebounded slightly. As of the end of the fourth quarter of 2023, the scale of investment trusts was 11.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 871.1 billion yuan from the previous quarter, with a quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 8.15%, accounting for 48.34%; The scale of affairs management trusts was 8.88 trillion yuan, an increase of 179.8 billion yuan from the previous month, accounting for 37.12%. In the same period, the scale of financing trusts was 3.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 229.1 billion yuan from the previous month, with a growth rate of 7.06%, accounting for 14.52%.
In retrospect, under the "two pressures and one drop" and a series of new asset management regulations, the scale of financing trusts has entered a downward channel since the second quarter of 2020, with the balance and proportion of financing at the end of the second quarter of that year reaching 6.45 trillion yuan and 30.29% respectively, and falling to 3.08 trillion yuan and 14.55% at the end of 2022, shrinking by more than 3 trillion yuan.
As of the end of the third quarter of last year, the scale and proportion of financing trusts were 3.25 trillion yuan and 14.34% respectively. From this point of view, the scale of financing trusts increased by about 400 billion yuan year-on-year last year, accounting for a downward channel but rebounding in the fourth quarter.
From the perspective of operation, the pain of industry transformation is still there, but the operating income and net profit have rebounded. According to the data, last year, the operating income of the trust industry was 86.361 billion yuan, an increase of 2.482 billion yuan over the same period of the previous year, and a year-on-year growth rate of 2.96%; The net profit was 42.373 billion yuan, an increase of 6.13 billion yuan over the same period of last year, and a slight increase of about 2.29% year-on-year after excluding special circumstances (such as one-time income and profits generated by the equity transfer of trust companies).
In addition, according to the annual report information disclosed by 52 trust companies, the average operating income of trust companies was 1.825 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.75% from 2022. If the combined samples and special data are excluded, the average is 1.262 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.76% compared with 2022, and the decline is narrower than that in 2022. Among the 52 trust companies that disclosed information, 28 trust companies will achieve an increase in operating income in 2023, accounting for more than half, or 53.85%; There were 25 trust companies with positive net profit growth, accounting for 48.08%.
Year-on-year changes in operating income and net profit of the trust industry
(Data source: financial reports of trust industry associations and trust companies)
Which of the 25 varieties under the new category has the most momentum?
From the perspective of trust fund investment, under the requirements of the new business "three classifications", standardization has increasingly become the mainstream trend, the scale and proportion of investment in the securities market and financial institutions have continued to increase, and the pressure drop effect in traditional industries, especially in the real estate field, is obvious.
As of the end of the fourth quarter of last year, the total scale of fund trusts reached 17.38 trillion yuan, an increase of about 930 billion yuan from the end of the third quarter and an increase of 2.24 trillion yuan from the same period in 2022. Among them, the total scale of investment in the securities market (including stocks, funds and bonds) was 6.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 853.6 billion yuan from the end of the third quarter, a quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 14.85%, accounting for 38% in total, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous quarter. For the whole year, this scale increased by 2.25 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 51.52%, and the proportion increased by nearly 10 percentage points.
In contrast, real estate trusts are the most obvious trust business areas affected by macro policies, industry supervision and market environment, and their scale and proportion have continued to decline in recent years, and have now dropped to less than one trillion yuan. As of the end of the fourth quarter of last year, the scale of fund trusts invested in real estate was 973.861 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.149 billion yuan from the previous quarter, accounting for 0.6 percentage points (5.6%). Compared with the fourth quarter of 2022, the scale decreased by 250 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.43%, and the proportion decreased by 2.53 percentage points.
"Compared with the previous peaks, the scale and proportion of funds invested in the real estate sector have decreased significantly, indicating that the era of traditional real estate trust business as the main business mode of trust has come to an end." Combined with the investment of trust funds in the field of industrial and commercial enterprises and infrastructure, Zeng Gang said that in the future, the trust industry needs to focus on the "five major articles", further strengthen the support for new productivity-related industries, and increase the support for the service manufacturing industry and service model innovation in the balance of effectively revitalizing the stock and steadily promoting the increment.
In terms of industry outlook, in addition to focusing on the "five major articles", Zeng Gang also mentioned continuing to return to the origin of trust, the two-wheel drive of wealth management and asset management, improving the professional ability of the capital market, broadening the development space of charitable trusts, and continuously standardizing the development of the industry.
Judging from the information disclosed at the press conference on the 15th, with the official implementation of the "Notice on Regulating the Classification of Trust Business of Trust Companies" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice") in June last year, the direction of industry transformation has become clearer. "The number and scale of the establishment of asset service trusts have greatly exceeded that of asset management trusts, and the overall business structure of trust companies is being further optimized, and the work of returning to its origins and transformation and upgrading is on the way." Liu Tiefeng, vice president of China Trust Registration Co., Ltd., said at the press conference.
According to the requirements of the Notice, the trust business is reclassified into three categories: asset service trusts, asset management trusts and charitable trusts, and the trust business sub-items are subdivided under each category of business, covering a total of 25 business varieties.
According to the data, from June to December 2023, a total of 30,415 trust products were established in the trust industry, with an establishment scale of 4,332.505 billion yuan. Among them, 19,046 new trust products were established by asset service trusts, with an establishment scale of 2,470.841 billion yuan, accounting for 57.03%; Asset management trusts newly established 10,862 trust products, with an establishment scale of 1,841.676 billion yuan, accounting for 42.51%. In terms of the number of establishments, asset service trusts are 75.34% higher than asset management trusts; In terms of establishment scale, asset service trusts are 34.16% higher than asset management trusts.
According to Liu Tiefeng, in the second half of last year, among all 25 business varieties, the number of insurance trusts, family trusts, family service trusts, and wealth management trusts of legal persons and unincorporated organizations were all in the top 5.
In asset service trusts, the administrative management service trust business, the risk disposal service trust business, and the asset securitization service trust business are all important manifestations of the trust company's return to the trustee position and the effective play of the flexibility of the trust system, with 48, 21, and 33 companies carrying out these three businesses respectively last year.
Risk disposal service trust is an important direction for trust to serve the real economy and help clear risks, which is particularly concerned at present. According to Qu Peng, secretary of the board of directors of Foreign Trade Trust, at the press conference, this kind of business balances the needs of creditors, debtors, investors, managers, asset service institutions and other parties by using institutional advantages to help difficult enterprises regain development momentum or exit the market in an orderly manner, stabilize the market environment, and optimize resource allocation.
It is understood that the Foreign Trade Trust established a special asset service trust department last year, actively expanding the "investment + service" business path of special assets, and landing the industry's first listed company bankruptcy reorganization investment and enterprise bankruptcy service trust linkage of listed company reorganization business. In addition, the company cooperated with Chengdu Wuhou Community Development Foundation to innovate the first property service trust in the country since the official implementation of the "new three classifications" of trusts, providing solutions for grassroots social governance.
(This article is from Yicai)