Consumption is stable and improving, and the potential continues to be released

　　Under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, China's economy has withstood external pressures, overcome internal difficulties, stepped up macroeconomic regulation and control, deepened supply-side structural reforms, firmly focused on expanding domestic demand, and focused on promoting high-quality development. In order to further enhance the basic role of consumption in economic development, various departments in the mainland have introduced a series of pro-consumption policies to carry out consumption promotion activities as a whole, and the results have been remarkable. Since 2024, the mainland has continued the momentum of consumption recovery, consumer demand has continued to be released, market activity has steadily increased, various new formats, new models and new scenarios have been emerging, and the scale and income of cultural tourism consumption have continued to rise. On the whole, the mainland consumer market has shown a steady and positive trend, with the scale of consumption continuing to expand, and the trend of upgrading the quality of consumption structure is obvious, fully demonstrating the advantages of the super-large-scale market, with sufficient vitality and strong resilience, supporting the continuous recovery of the economy.

　　The scale of consumption continues to expand and the growth rate is stable

　　The scale of the consumer market has further expanded. In the first quarter of 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods in mainland China 120327 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, the basic consumer goods market maintained a high growth rate, the retail sales of some upgraded commodities grew rapidly, and the retail sales of sports and entertainment goods and communication equipment of units above designated size increased by 14.2% and 13.2% respectively, which were 10.2 and 9.2 percentage points higher than the growth rate of commodity retail sales in the same period, respectively, and the demand for quality consumption was prominent.

　　The scale of online consumption continues to expand. In the first quarter of 2024, the national online retail sales reached 3,308.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 11.6%, and the food and clothing goods increased by 21.1% and 12.1% respectively. In terms of the automobile market, the retail sales of the domestic narrow passenger car market reached 1.69 million units in March, an increase of 6.2% year-on-year and 53.1% month-on-month in February; From January to March, the cumulative sales of automobiles were 4.832 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%. Consumption in 2024 is off to a good start, indicating that the mainland consumer market continues to recover and has great potential and strength.

　　The proportion of service consumption has increased, and the market has recovered rapidly

　　The service consumption market continued to grow, and the proportion of service consumption expenditure increased. In the first quarter of 2024, the mainland's retail sales of services increased by 10.0% year-on-year, 6 percentage points higher than the growth rate of retail sales of goods in the same period. From the perspective of industry revenue, the national catering revenue was 1,344.5 billion yuan, an increase of 10.8%, and the average daily sales revenue of catering services during the Spring Festival holiday increased by 31.5% year-on-year.

　　Entertainment and tourism consumption has shown explosive growth. During the Spring Festival in 2024, there will be 16,300 commercial performances nationwide, with box office revenue of 778 million yuan, an increase of 52.1% and 80.1% year-on-year, respectively. "Travel with the show" has become a new cultural tourism consumption trend. The box office performance of movies is strong, with the national box office of New Year's Day in 2024 exceeding 1.5 billion yuan, an increase of about 1.7 times, and the box office revenue during the Spring Festival will reach 8.016 billion yuan, and the number of moviegoers will reach 163 million, setting the best record for the same period in history. In addition, during the New Year's Day in 2024, the consumption of "New Year's Eve" and "ice and snow" themed tourism is hot, with 135 million domestic tourism trips nationwide, a year-on-year increase of 155.3%, and domestic tourism revenue of 79.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 200.7%. During the Spring Festival holiday, the number of domestic tourism trips nationwide reached 474 million, a year-on-year increase of 34.3%, and a comparable increase of 19.0% compared with the same period in 2019; The total travel expenditure of domestic tourists was 632.687 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.3%, and an increase of 7.7% compared with the same period in 2019 on a comparable basis. Here, the national style elements that integrate traditional Chinese culture have become a new trend of consumption symbols, and at the same time, they have become a new hot spot of cultural tourism attractions while enhancing the attractiveness and competitiveness of the national fashion brand.

　　Active offline consumption has led to a significant increase in travel volume. According to the data, the demand for taxis during the New Year's Day holiday increased by more than 150% compared with the same period in 2023, and the demand for cross-Chinese New Year's Eve taxis increased by 700% compared with the pre-holiday period; The average daily number of completed orders using Didi Dache during the Spring Festival increased by 32% compared to the same period in 2023 and 65% compared to the Spring Festival in 2019. With the continuous integration and expansion of service consumption scenarios, the service consumption market has recovered rapidly.

　　New business forms and new models activate residents' consumption potential

　　With technological breakthroughs and the further improvement of residents' living standards, new consumption has formed a mutually promoting development pattern, with instant retail, green, healthy and intelligent consumption, and new scenarios and new models helping to expand consumption development space and better meet the diversified consumption needs of residents.

　　Just-in-time retail is growing rapidly. Instant retail has been able to realize the "distribution of all things", effectively releasing the consumption potential of goods and life services. During the Spring Festival in 2024, instant retail, represented by fresh e-commerce, has become an important way for residents to purchase New Year's goods, and the Ministry of Commerce focuses on monitoring the instant retail sales of e-commerce platforms with a year-on-year increase of 32.2%. With the continuous innovation of instant retail supply and the further enrichment of categories to better meet the local immediate and personalized consumption needs of residents, instant retail is expected to become one of the consumption channels of retail owners in mainland China.

　　Green, healthy and intelligent consumption hotspots are emerging. The concept of health and environmental protection is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and residents' demand for green consumer products continues to expand, and the content of green products is increasingly rich, and hot spots continue to emerge, promoting the upgrading of consumption quality. Taking smart home as an example, due to the integration of multiple features such as AI intelligence + Internet of Things + daily life needs, smart home can deduce a variety of life scenarios and improve the comfort, convenience, safety and energy saving of family life, which is popular among consumers. At the same time, sales of green and healthy products are strong, and sales of green organic food in some large supermarket chains increased by nearly 20% during the Spring Festival holiday. In the first quarter of 2024, the output of charging piles, 3D printing equipment, and electronic components increased by 41.7%, 40.6%, and 39.5% year-on-year, respectively, helping the innovation of consumer supply such as new consumer electronics and new energy vehicles, and helping to drive the formation of new hotspots for green, healthy and intelligent consumption. In addition, with the promotion of a new round of large-scale equipment renewal and the trade-in action plan for consumer goods, home appliance companies and e-commerce platforms are actively carrying out trade-in services, and the consumption potential of green, healthy and intelligent products will be further released.

　　Focusing on different themes, consumption carriers in many places across the country continue to innovate various formats and consumption scenarios, which has become a new driving force for consumption growth. During the Spring Festival holiday in 2024, key business districts across the country will be very popular, with the passenger flow and turnover of demonstration pedestrian streets increasing by 32.9% and 36.1% year-on-year respectively.

　　Under the influence of multiple factors, the county consumer market has grown rapidly

　　With the continuous increase of rural residents' income, the county-level consumer demand has been upgraded against the first- and second-tier cities, consumption innovation has been active, and consumption supply has been continuously optimized.

　　The growth rate of rural consumption is faster than that of urban areas, and the proportion of rural markets has increased. In the first quarter of 2024, the retail sales of rural consumer goods reached 1,604.7 billion yuan, up by 5.2 percent, 0.6 percentage points higher than that of urban residents, and the per capita consumption expenditure of rural residents was 5,050 yuan, up by 9.2 percent in real terms after deducting price factors, 1.5 percentage points higher than that of urban residents. The average annual growth rate of rural household cars, refrigerators, air conditioners, computers and other durable goods is significantly higher than that in urban areas, and the scale of new energy vehicles, green smart home appliances, green building materials and furniture and home decoration in the countryside continues to grow, and the growth rate of services such as customization and soft decoration in living rooms and restaurants is eye-catching. During the Spring Festival, the Ministry of Commerce focused on monitoring the rural online retail sales of e-commerce platforms increased by 16.1% year-on-year, and new consumption such as live-streaming e-commerce, social e-commerce, and instant retail developed rapidly.

　　From the perspective of life service consumption, the consumption of life services in the third and fourth tier areas during the Spring Festival grew the fastest year-on-year; According to Meituan, from the beginning of the new year to the eighth day of the first lunar month, the growth rate of takeaway orders of many leading coffee brands in counties has reached 136%, far exceeding that of first- and second-tier cities.

　　From the perspective of entertainment consumption, the proportion of box office revenue has increased, and the box office in third- and fourth-tier cities during the Spring Festival in 2024 will account for 58.9%, an increase of 6.1 percentage points from 2019. From the perspective of tourism consumption, data from Huazhu Group shows that during the Spring Festival holiday, the occupancy rate of hotels in third- and fourth-tier cities is around 80%, and the occupancy rate of hotels in county towns will increase by about 12 percentage points compared with the Spring Festival in 2023. The stability of the rural consumer market has been continuously enhanced, the trend of quality improvement and upgrading is obvious, and the pattern of urban and rural markets has become more balanced, showing a trend of going hand in hand.

　　Consumption is a barometer for observing the economy, and it is also the "stabilizer" and "ballast stone" for economic operation. Driven by multiple factors such as policy promotion, technology empowerment and business innovation, the mainland consumer market has frequently emerged with new ideas and released vitality, which not only better meets the needs of residents to improve their consumption quality, but also gives residents a greater sense of gain and promotes the continuous improvement of consumer confidence. In the face of severe and complicated domestic and international situations, expanding consumption has become the key focus of the mainland's efforts to consolidate and strengthen the positive trend of economic recovery. This requires that we must focus on the overall situation of economic and social development, systematically lay out policies and measures to promote consumption with the new development concept, improve residents' consumption capacity and consumption tendency, optimize supply content, cultivate new consumption growth points, improve the consumption ecosystem, strongly support the quality and expansion of consumption, and continue to promote the economy to achieve effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth.

　　(The author is a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

Source: "China Social Science Daily" May 15, 2024 Issue 2893 Author: Yi Shaohua