In just three months, after soaring from 90 yuan to 214 yuan, another big bull stock plummeted.
Big bull stocks have plummeted, skyrocketing over the past two years
On the afternoon of June 3, Xingqi Ophthalmology suddenly began to plummet, down 10.19% as of the close, with a turnover of 1.96 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 7.56%.
Xingqi Ophthalmology is located in Shenyang, formerly known as Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical Factory of Northeast Pharmaceutical Group, which was founded in the 1970s, restructured in 2000, and listed on the GEM at the end of 2016.
When it comes to listed companies in Northeast China, people are often most impressed by Changchun High-tech.
Changchun High-tech, a company mainly engaged in growth hormone, and Xingqi Ophthalmology are both in the pharmaceutical industry. In the past many years, Changchun High-tech's performance and stock price have both skyrocketed, and in 2021, it has created the myth of "Big Mom earns 100 times".
However, with the collapse of the fund group, the decline in its own performance and other factors, the stock price of Changchun High-tech has plummeted by 80% in the past three years, and the myth has been completely shattered.
As the saying goes, "Feng Shui takes turns, come to my house this year", the share price of Changchun High-tech, the former "Northeast Stock King", has fallen, but the share price of Xingqi Eye Medicine has gone all the way.
Xingqi Ophthalmology did not attract much attention from investors at the beginning of its listing, and it first entered the field of vision of many shareholders in April 2019.
At that time, the company obtained the approval of two new drugs, olopatadine hydrochloride eye drops and lysozyme eye drops, so the stock price soared, and 12 daily limits were achieved in 13 days in the same month, of which the last 10 were all one-word daily limits.
The market value of Xingqi Eye Medicine was still very small at that time, only a few billion, so the hype did not look at the performance at all, even if the company released the negative news that the net profit will plummet by 65% in 2023 and the shareholders holding more than 5% of the shares will reduce their holdings significantly, it still failed to stop the soaring stock price.
After Xingqi Eye Medicine became a big demon stock, it quickly attracted the attention of the regulatory authorities, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange asked the company to give a detailed explanation of the growth rate of its sales expenses far exceeding the growth rate of revenue. Issues such as the company's shareholder reduction have also been used by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange to inquire whether there is insider trading.
However, on the whole, Xingqi Eye Medicine, which became a hit with eye drops "miracle medicine", generally showed a trend of volatility and climbing in the following years.
In 2023, its stock price will soar by 111%, and it will soar by more than 50% again so far in 2024, which can be described as very strong.
After a 45-fold surge, a copy of HPV vaccine stocks?
In the past two years, Xingqi eye medicine has far outperformed the market index, relying on its "miracle drug" 0.01% atropine sulfate eye drops.
The brand name of this drug is Xingqi Meioupin, which was approved by the State Drug Administration in March this year. On May 28, the drug was first launched in Ali Health Pharmacy, which is said to be the only low-concentration atropine eye drops approved in China for delaying the progression of myopia in children.
Many companies related to the use of drugs for children and adolescents have become too big bull stocks. The most typical is the above-mentioned children's growth hormone manufacturer Changchun High-tech, which once rose 100 times.
In addition, OPCOM, which treats myopia in children, has also skyrocketed by more than 10 times from 2018 to 2021, so it has won the reputation of "glasses". It's just that in the past three years, OPCOM has fallen off the altar and plummeted by more than 85%.
Changchun High-tech, Optek, Xingqi Eye Medicine, these three companies are either the current big bull stocks, or the big bull stocks in the past, the common logic of their surge is: products and services to children as the main customer group, parents are willing to spend money on their children, to promote their own performance continues to grow, and the stock price rises.
Since the beginning of 2019, Xingqi Ophthalmology's share price has skyrocketed by more than 4,500%, and the core expectation of its stock price rise is that the market for children's myopia is broad.
Xingqi Ophthalmology's atropine eye drops do not cure myopia, but delay myopia in children aged 6 to 12 years with spherical power of -1.00D to -4.00D (astigmatism ≤1.50D, anisometropia ≤1.50D).
It can be said that there is a limit to the scope of its adaptation.
However, according to some institutions, low-concentration atropine is currently the only drug that has been proven by evidence-based medicine to effectively delay the progression of myopia, and the agency has given a market size expectation of 10 billion yuan.
Stock speculation is speculation on expectations, Xingqi eye medicine's 45-fold skyrocket, is this full of expectations to occupy all market share?
In fact, 0.01% atropine sulfate eye drops are not a new thing, and in overseas markets, they have a large number of clinical use cases for about 20 years, and the safety is okay.
The advantage of Xingqi Ophthalmic is its exclusivity in China, and there are currently no other similar products approved in China. However, there are a number of similar atropine sulfate eye drops products on the market abroad.
The author believes that eye drops are not too sophisticated technology. So, if other domestic companies have developed it and been approved for marketing, won't this have an impact on the stock price of Xingqi Ophthalmic?
In fact, there are already many companies developing similar drugs, such as OPCOM, Shapu Aisi, Hengrui Pharmaceutical, etc.
For example, on April 16, OPCOM said on the interactive platform that the low-concentration atropine of the subsidiary OPCOM is in phase III clinical trials, and it is currently inconvenient to predict the time of launch.
In fact, phase 1 to phase 3 clinical trials often mean that the product is not far from being launched.
The current market pattern of this eye drop reminds me of the HPV vaccine in previous years.
At the beginning, a certain company was developed and listed, and the stock price was stimulated to skyrocket. Later, more and more peers launched HPV vaccines, and the market fell into a fierce competition involution pattern, and the price of HPV vaccines was greatly reduced. Related companies such as Zhifei Biotechnology, Wantai Biotechnology, Walvax Biotechnology, etc., have seen a sharp decline in stock prices.
OPCOM has all phase III clinical trials, coupled with the entry of companies such as Hengrui Pharmaceutical, a giant with strong R&D strength, this eye drop to relieve myopia will most likely stage the HPV vaccine again.
There is a lot of room for price reduction, and "China Buffett" buys wildly
Moreover, now Xingqi eye medicine has a huge room for price decline.
According to the report in this article, this eye drop is sold in many hospitals in Hangzhou, and a box of 30 pieces is priced at 298 yuan and can be used for a month.
According to a report by Yicai, some public eye hospitals also have low-concentration atropine eye drops sold as prescription drugs in our hospitals, and their prices are much lower than Xingqi eye medicines.
A bottle of concentrated atropine sulfate eye drops at Fudan University Hospital costs about 30 yuan, and Shanghai Children's Hospital sells for 40 yuan, and both can be used for a month.
In this way, the price of Xingqi's products is nearly 10 times the price of hospital-made products!
Xingqi eye medicine can now take advantage of some information gap with parents to make money, if this kind of news is known to more and more parents, will they still let their children use Xingqi's high-priced eye drops?
In the first quarter of this year, Xingqi ophthalmic drug revenue was 350 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.10%; The net profit was 34.74 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 79.59%.
Strong performance growth has also attracted the attention of mutual funds. In the first quarter, Zhu Shaoxing, the top fund manager of Wells Fargo Fund and known as "China Buffett", increased his position in Xingqi Eye Medicine by about 1.3 million shares, becoming the largest number of stocks in heavy stocks.
At present, Xingqi Eye Medicine is already the second largest heavy stock of Zhu Shaoxing's Fuguo Tianhui Growth Mixed Fund, with a shareholding ratio of 3.55%.
Wells Fargo Fund has a total of 19 fund products holding Xingqi Eye Medicine, and the total number of shares held is the first among all companies.
In the past two years, Wells Fargo Fund has suffered a huge loss of more than 100 billion yuan. Now it seems that the Wells Fargo Fund should have made some money on the heavy Xingqi Eye Medicine.
However, we should note that Xingqi Ophthalmology's current price-to-earnings ratio is as high as 242 times, which is undoubtedly a very high valuation. As a result, the product of atropine eye drops, which led to a sharp rise in its stock price, is facing the possibility that it will no longer be an exclusive domestic production in the future, and the price will be greatly reduced.
This will have a serious impact on the future stock price of Xingqi Ophthalmology.
Therefore, the Wells Fargo Fund and the "Chinese Buffett" Zhu Shaoxing, who bought so many Xingqi eye medicines, will their mentality be good after the high price of Xingqi eye medicine has fallen significantly?