Quick Facts
- Gaza's health sector data has been questioned, but the World Health Organization, the United Nations, and biomedical data experts have concluded that there is no "exaggeration of death figures". The Lancet report argues that the difficulty in obtaining accurate death data in the context of ongoing conflict should not be interpreted as a deliberate misrepresentation of data.
Background to the event
Recently, there was a statement on Chinese and foreign social platforms that said, "The United Nations falsified the casualty data on Gaza." New UN data shows a significant discrepancy in the number of reported deaths, with a sharp decrease in the number of women and children among the casualties. The number of women and children originally reported has been halved, raising serious questions about the accuracy of the data. Fox News reported that "the United Nations revised the death toll in Gaza, with nearly 50 percent fewer deaths among women and children than previously reported." The report was widely disseminated.
Screenshot of the Internet legend method
Check clearly
According to the original Fox News report, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) report released on May 6 put the number of dead women and 14,500 dead children in Palestine, compared with 4,959 dead women and 7,797 dead children in the May 8 report.
Screenshot of Fox News' report on the content of the UN report
However, a search of the original report of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reveals that the data are defined differently in the 6 and 8 May reports. In both cases, the premise was "reported deaths", but the May 8 data specifically included the number of men, women, children, and the elderly who had been identified as of April 30. In terms of data on the deaths of women and children, the May 6 report only gives a rough range of "at least 9,500" and "at least 14,500", while the 8th report is more precise. It can be seen that the difference between the two reports is not the result of a modification after a false positive.
The top and bottom figures show the data reports released by OCHA on May 6 and 8, respectively
In fact, OCHA has a database dedicated to the number of casualties on both sides of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict since 2008, but the casualty data on the conflict in Gaza since October last year is unique, and the data will only be officially included after the events in the area have been independently verified, while the number of casualties on both sides in other areas will be updated on a regular basis.
Screenshot of OCHA's statement on the number of casualties in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict
Verifying the number of war casualties is not an easy task, and according to the Gaza Health Department (GMoH), the main source of data cited by OCHA, there are a number of conditions that need to be met for the "identified" dead. Some political parties and institutions have always questioned the manipulation of the casualty figures by Hamas, arguing that the figures are not true. However, Gaza's health sector has been recognized by a number of experts and authoritative organizations as the most accurate source of data in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
On December 6, 2023, The Lancet published an article written by multiple biomedical data scholars, stating that "there is no evidence that the Gaza health sector is overstating death figures". The article notes that comparing the death toll report from Gaza's health sector with death reports from separate sources found no evidence of inflated death rates. For example, if the number of deaths in the health sector is significantly exaggerated, mortality rates in the health sector (in this case, cumulative reported deaths per 1,000 population) are expected to be higher than those of UNRWA and, conversely, in the health sector in Gaza than in the latter. "It is difficult to report the death toll in the ongoing conflict. Initial news reports may be inaccurate, and subsequent verified reports may underestimate the number of deaths not recorded in hospitals or morgues, such as those buried under the rubble. However, the difficulty of obtaining accurate death data should not be interpreted as a deliberate misrepresentation of data. ”
The Lancet studies a graph comparing the health sector in Gaza with UNRWA mortality rates
The World Health Organization said there was no problem with the number of deaths reported in Gaza, Reuters reported on May 14. Christian Lindmeier, a spokesman for the World Health Organization, noted that "there is no problem with the data [of deaths since October last year, updated by the Gaza health department] and the overall data (over 35,000) remains the same." We have now identified 25,000 people, which is a step forward. Lindmeier also said that it is normal for the death toll to change during the conflict, and that Israel had also downgraded the death toll from the October 7 Hamas attack after verification.
Screenshot of the Reuters report
WHO spokesperson Margaret Harris previously affirmed the credibility of Gaza's health sector, saying that "[the World Health Organization] has a long-standing relationship with Gaza's health sector, and we can demonstrate that the health sector has good data collection/analysis capabilities" and that "the actual number is likely to be higher".
A spokesman for the UN Human Rights Office also said that the updated data from the health sector in Gaza had not been downgraded, with Liz Throssel saying, "We're talking about 35,000 deaths, and every life counts, isn't it?" ”
Screenshot of the UN Human Rights Office spokesperson responding to data questions at a briefing
In summary, the number of women and child deaths in the UN report on May 6 is the data range of the preliminary report, which is "at least 9,500" and "at least 14,500", respectively, while the number of women and children who have been identified announced on the 8th is 4,459 and 7,797, respectively. Media outlets such as Fox News do not distinguish between these two data definitions, which is misleading. Gaza's health sector data has been questioned, but the World Health Organization, the United Nations, and biomedical data experts have all concluded that there is no such thing as "exaggerating death figures", and The Lancet report argues that the difficulty of obtaining accurate death data in the ongoing conflict should not be interpreted as a deliberate misrepresentation of data.