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Due to the prominent inflationary pressure in the United States, international crude oil futures prices consolidated in a narrow range in the overnight market, fluctuated and fell in the morning on the 14th, and consolidated in a narrow range in the afternoon, and international oil prices fell significantly at the close. As of the end of the day, the price of light crude oil futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $1.10 to close at $78.02 per barrel, a decrease of 1.39%; Brent crude futures for July delivery fell $0.98, or 1.18%, to settle at $82.38 a barrel on the day.
Since 2024, the rise in crude oil prices has been roughly divided into two phases: from January 1 to April 5, the original price of Brent rose from $75.9 per barrel to $91.2 per barrel, an increase of 18.3%; Crude oil futures in New York also rose from $70.4 to $86.9 a barrel, an increase of 21.3%. Since April 6, crude oil prices have entered a downward phase, with Brent crude oil futures plummeting 9.2% to $82.8 per barrel, and New York crude oil futures plummeting 10.0% to $78.3 per barrel.
The pullback in oil prices since April 6 has been affected by a combination of negative factors such as the larger-than-expected replenishment of U.S. oil depots, the emergence of weakness in the U.S. economy, and the easing of the geopolitical situation.
Looking back at the development of the global crude oil market:
-- Global crude oil production
Judging from the crude oil production data of the Global Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC, the overall fluctuation from 2015 to 2019 was in a state of slight fluctuations, close to 33,000 thousand barrels per day in October 2018, and since 2020, affected by the global new crown epidemic outbreak, macroeconomic downturn, new energy substitution and other comprehensive factors, crude oil production has declined sharply, and then with the gradual recovery of the epidemic and the economy, crude oil production has rebounded, as of January 2023, it is still below 29,000 thousand barrels per day.
- Global refining capacity and crude oil processing capacity
Hazardous chemicals are chemical products obtained by further chemical processing on the basis of crude oil refining. According to the World Energy Agency (IEA), the global crude oil processing capacity and total crude oil processing volume showed an upward trend from 2015 to 2019. Affected by the global epidemic in 2020, the global crude oil processing volume in 2020 was 78.90 million barrels per day, a year-on-year decrease of 8.36%. In 2021, with the gradual improvement of the epidemic, global refinery crude oil processing is expected to rebound, and the IEA estimates that global crude oil processing in 2021 will be 83.40 million barrels per day.
-- Global crude oil price trends
Since 2022, coal and natural gas have risen by more than 200%. Even since Putin announced the special military operation on February 24, the increase has exceeded 100%, while Brent oil and WTI crude oil have risen by 25% and 21%, respectively, during the same period. Based on Russia's important energy position in the global market, once the sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Russia's energy sector are implemented, it means that nearly one-third of the world's oil and gas supply will be interrupted, and the impact on the global energy market is self-evident, especially in Europe, where there may be another energy crisis.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) released its monthly oil market report, maintaining last month's forecast for global oil demand in 2024 and 2025, believing that the average daily global oil demand this year will increase by 2.2 million barrels compared with 2023 to about 104 million barrels; Global oil demand will increase by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025 compared to 2024 to about 106 million barrels.
OPEC said in the report that strong demand for air travel and road transport will support the growth of global oil demand this year. China's steady economic activity and strong demand for tourism activities will support its oil demand in 2025.
Note: This article is for content purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.
Prospective Economist APP Information Group
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