The Shanghai Composite Index fills the gap at the end of the day! Why did real estate stocks rise sharply today and brokerage stocks plummeted? Let's look at the analysis

National Business Daily

2024-05-15 15:27Posted on the official account of Sichuan Daily Economic News

Reporter: Zhao Yun Editor: Xiao Ruidong

On May 15, the market fluctuated lower throughout the day, with the three major indexes all falling nearly 1%. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.82%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.88%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.9%.

In terms of sectors, real estate, ST plates, phosphorus chemicals, precious metals and other sectors were among the top gainers, while securities, power, Sora concept, CRO and other sectors were among the top decliners.

Overall, individual stocks fell more and rose less, and more than 3,800 stocks in the whole market fell. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today was 761.1 billion, a decrease of 63.5 billion from the previous trading day.

Hong Kong stocks are closed today, and A-share trading is not very active, and there was a sharp decline at the beginning of the morning session.

For example, the Shanghai Composite Index fell to 3,128 points in less than 20 minutes after opening, and it seems to have a tendency to make up for the gap opened high last Monday (May 6).

Soon, however, small- and mid-cap stocks gained momentum and lifted the index up a bit. Throughout the day, the main force of "stopping" the index covering came from real estate, home appliances and other sectors.

However, there was a reversal at the end of the session - under the pressure of the unexpected dive in the securities sector, this gap was finally filled, and the Shanghai Composite Index even fell below 3120.

Generally speaking, after the index falls to fill the gap, it will bottom out or continue to fall, mainly depending on the subsequent market volume and upward momentum.

Some analysts believe that the real estate sector is the source of the start of this round of market, and today's changes at least show that the market has rich expectations for real estate. So, is the "small composition" that comes out of the plate reliable?

See also the outflow of "small compositions" and the outbreak of the real estate sector

In fact, at the beginning of the morning session, the real estate sector as a whole opened low, temporarily lagging behind the pan-AI line that broke out yesterday. However, before 10 o'clock, the plate had the first wave of small pull-up, and after 10:40, it made another effort, laying a leading position.

In terms of individual stocks, Everbright Jiabao, Tiandiyuan, Cinda Real Estate, Binjiang Group touched the daily limit, and Vanke A also strengthened significantly. What's going on? According to brokerage China, there are two major positives circulating in the market:

First of all, there is news in the market that the relevant authorities are considering a plan to let local governments across the country buy the stock of housing that has not yet been sold. The scheme may allow banks to lend money.

However, it should be noted that there have been several versions of a similar plan, but none of them have been officially confirmed so far.

Secondly, there is still speculation in the market today that if the ECB cuts rates as expected, the PBOC may cut interest rates in June. Because, after the ECB, the interest rate cut may reduce the impact on the RMB exchange rate. Today, MLF maintains stable volume and price, but if interest rates are cut subsequently, it will inevitably be good for the real estate market.

Because it has not yet been confirmed, the boost of these news to the market should obviously not be overestimated. However, the near-term trend of the real estate sector is indeed relatively healthy, so we can analyze it along the logic mentioned in the news.

For example, how feasible is the storage room?

According to the analysis of Soochow Securities, government spending money is almost an unavoidable topic in the process of real estate clearance. Recently, the market has been heating up on the government's policy of establishing a unified platform and carrying out real estate acquisition and storage nationwide. In the process of regulating and controlling the structural imbalance between supply and demand of real estate, the government spends real money to make up for the missing demand and reduce inventory in a more "painless" way.

Where does the money come from? According to the analysis of Soochow Securities, the central government may be the ultimate answer. Taking the Zhengzhou model as an example, the model of acquiring second-hand houses and leveraging new houses through the government platform is indeed quite innovative, but in the context of localized bonds, where to obtain the "start-up capital" for the acquisition of second-hand houses is a practical question that needs to be answered urgently - obtaining funds from banks or central banks may mean that local governments will be forced to increase leverage; At the same time, considering the complexity of "city-by-city" coordination between the central government and the local government, it may be a faster and realistic option for the central government to establish a unified platform. "However, it should be noted that the pressure from money may be a bit large, and it is expected that the scale of the funds collected and stored this time will be about 7 trillion yuan."

On the other hand, governments at all levels are actively taking regulatory measures to promote the stable development of the market.

According to CEB International, on the whole, the government has introduced a "white list" system and other relevant policies this year to ensure the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises, and mentioned for the first time at the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee that it will digest the stock and optimize the increment, emphasizing the consolidation of the responsibilities of local governments, real estate enterprises and financial institutions, and effectively ensuring the delivery of housing and protecting the rights and interests of home buyers. The implementation of various enhancement policies has supported the mainland real estate market in many ways.

The strength of real estate stocks has also driven the rise of the home appliance sector represented by kitchen and bathroom appliances to a certain extent.

Galaxy Securities pointed out that with the gradual expansion of domestic demand and consumption promotion policies in the future, domestic demand for household appliances is expected to be supported, superimposed on overseas inventories and gradually depleted, the trend of export improvement is expected to continue, and the prosperity of the household appliance industry is expected to continue to recover, and the current sector valuation still has a margin of safety. It is recommended to focus on three main investment lines:

1. White electric faucets that are expected to benefit from the improvement of domestic and foreign sales;

Second, it is expected to benefit from the optimization of the industry pattern and the improvement of the real estate bottom of the kitchen faucet;

3. Actively promote channel expansion and accelerate the launch of new clean appliances.

Guolian Securities resumed trading with a one-word daily limit, why did the brokerage sector dive?

In obvious contrast with the real estate sector, it is the securities sector that opens high and moves low today.

Last night, Guolian Securities announced that it planned to issue A shares to purchase 100% of Minsheng Securities, and raise no more than 2 billion yuan (including this number) of matching funds.

This morning, Guolian Securities resumed trading, and the first second of the auction was the daily limit, and the amount of the sealed order at 9:25 was as high as 9.5 billion yuan.

However, as of the close of the market after the opening, although the transaction amount was not much, the funds on the board were cancelled obviously.

Correspondingly, short-term funds took advantage of the situation and chose to cash out, resulting in a significant dive in the brokerage sector. As of the close, only Guolian Securities and Changjiang Securities rose, while Zheshang Securities and Pacific Securities, which had recently performed strongly, plunged straight at the opening.

According to the analysis of industry insiders, the mood may be related to the recent dismal quarterly report of the brokerage industry and the successive fines. The fundamentals of the brokerage industry have bottomed out, and the expectation of accelerated mergers and acquisitions and restructuring in the industry is gradually being realized.

It is understood that in addition to the merger and acquisition of Guolian Securities, the main entities currently promoting the equity acquisition of securities include Zheshang Securities' acquisition of Guodu Securities' equity, Founder Securities' merger with Ping An Securities, and Huachuang Securities' acquisition of 10.92% of Pacific's equity.

National Business Daily

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