disappeared 209.7 billion, Masayoshi Son ran away!

Refer to Ortho Quotient

2024-05-15 11:00Posted on the official account of Beijing Zhengshang

disappeared 209.7 billion, Masayoshi Son ran away!

Masayoshi Son, there is another big move.

According to the latest data from the analysis platform WhaleWisdom, SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son led its SoftBank Vision Fund to quietly complete a wave of crazy moves recently, selling and reducing the stake of star companies such as Coupang, the largest e-commerce platform in South Korea, DoorDash, the largest online food order demand aggregator in the United States, Grab Holdings, the largest travel platform in Southeast Asia, and Paytm, the largest payment platform in India.

In the opinion of one analyst, "Son's madness is tinged with forced escape." "Because the above-mentioned investment portfolio has wiped out the total amount of SoftBank Vision Fund by nearly 29 billion US dollars (about 209.7 billion yuan). In addition to escaping from the Internet industry, which was once the most optimistic, Son also sold part of the shares of the global chip leader ARM and reduced his holdings in the "AI Four Tigers" SenseTime Technology, "claiming to be a comprehensive attack on chips and AI, and escaped from chips and AI." The "dreamer" Masayoshi Son is trying to get rid of the investment "pie" drawn in the past?

One

"Son Zhengyi, don't pretend at all."

He personally tore up the investment "pie" that he had drawn in the past.

In 2019, Masayoshi Son, who has not yet stepped down from Alibaba's board of directors, shouted a bolder plan amid thunderous cheers, "Raise $100 billion in the second phase of the SoftBank Vision Fund to invest in the greatest companies in countries around the world in the next five years." ”

Son's audacity is related to the phased investment performance of the first phase of the SoftBank Vision Fund. In 2017, with the goal of "investing in the next Alibaba and Yahoo", Son established the world's largest VC, "SoftBank Vision Fund L.P." According to the investment plan, the first phase of the fund will raise US$100 billion with a term of 5 years. At that time, the world's richest families and businesses were rushing to "pay" for Son, and the SoftBank Vision Fund won heavyweight LPs such as the Middle East royal sovereign fund, Apple, Qualcomm, and Foxconn in one fell swoop.

"There is a cycle of 5 years, and the cycle has ups and downs." The return harvest period for the first phase of the SoftBank Vision Fund is in 2022. It stands to reason that "whether the investment is good or not will be known in 2022", but Masayoshi Son did not wait for 2022 and shared a "good news" of the first phase of the SoftBank Vision Fund in 2019 in advance.

In the "good news", the first phase of the SoftBank Vision Fund has made a total of 71 investments, amounting to US$64.2 billion, with a book return of 62%. This "good news" triggered a global VC/PE shock, and also added points to the prospects of the primary market. In the first phase of the SoftBank Vision Fund portfolio, Masayoshi Son is firmly optimistic about the development of the global Internet industry, believing that no one knows the evolution trend of the tuyere better than him, "By the exit period, the overall return will be far more than 62%. ”

"Everyone knows the cycle, happy on the upside, depressed on the downside, what are investors most afraid of? The most feared thing is that the upward movement cannot be retreated, and when the withdrawal comes, it will go downward. Son's "good news" is very timely, and it is happy that the Internet cycle is up.

Of course, Son did so in a planned way, and he couldn't wait to raise another $100 billion. After the "good news", he immediately drew a "new pie" for investment, and the second phase of the SoftBank Vision Fund was launched. However, as the new five-year cycle nears its expiration, the global dollar investment environment has changed, and the "black swan" in 2020 prompted the Federal Reserve to introduce a package of aggressive policies, which brought many variables to the market.

Variables overturned Son's layout and caused heavy losses to the SoftBank Vision Fund. The new five-year cycle just covers the exit of the first phase of the SoftBank Vision Fund. 2022 should have been the highlight moment for LPs to witness Masayoshi Son's amazing returns, but he caused the biggest hole in the history of venture capital.

The SoftBank Vision Fund ended in a fiasco in its first five years, losing $26.2 billion in investments in fiscal 2021 alone, while Son personally owed $4.7 billion to SoftBank. In order to appease the anger of LPs such as the Middle East royal family, Apple, and Qualcomm, he used a trick to "get out of the shell" to end the first phase of the SoftBank Vision Fund, "say goodbye to SoftBank and withdraw from venture capital" bowed to the shareholders, and "the work was handed over to the CFO".

At that time, the global media believed it, thinking that "Masayoshi Son ended his venture capital career by leaving class, which can be regarded as an explanation to LP." ”

is worthy of being the "No. 1 fool in global investment", and Son Zhengyi, who is familiar with "Thirty-six Strategies", has already thought of a plan to secretly Chen Cang. He took the opportunity of "golden cicada shelling" to draw another "new cake" - tackling chips, seizing the new global outlet, and regaining everything lost.

Two

In fact, Son can't really say goodbye to venture capital.

The second phase of the SoftBank Vision Fund is still in operation.

But Son has to draw the "new pie" first, and the "new pie" that supports his next round of stories is the British chip company ARM, which he "accidentally" bought for $31 billion in 2016. At that time, Son's career was thriving, and the SoftBank Vision Fund was about to come out, but the outside world's impression of him mainly stayed on the Internet, "It was the times that made SoftBank." So Son decided to expand the boundaries of investment and venture into chips.

This is the reason why he bought ARM with a lot of money. When he first bought the company, Son had a good plan, and after some packaging and selling at a good price, coupled with the boom in the first phase of the SoftBank Vision Fund, Son got some upstream and downstream customers for ARM with the help of the fund investment in his hand, which can be described as "killing two birds with one stone". However, the "black swan" not only disrupted Son's investment pace, but also put ARM in a desperate situation.

Masayoshi Son didn't want to wait any longer, and searched for a "pick-up man" around the world for more than $60 billion. After looking for half a year, no one took over, "the chip field doesn't seem to give Son Masayoshi face." In a fit of rage, he lowered his $20 billion valuation to "fire" ARM. Sure enough, "discounts" are always good, and Huang Jenxun, the founder of Nvidia, a "shrewd Chinese" who wants to expand in the United States, rushed to pick up the leaks and almost contributed to the world's largest chip merger and acquisition.

Eventually, the deal fell through. One reason is that countries are concerned about the "oligopoly pattern". There is also a popular saying, "Huang is too shrewd, he still thinks $40 billion is expensive, and he wants to cut more than $30 billion, angering Son again, feeling humiliated, and the deal fell apart." ”

The world's largest chip M&A case turned into the world's largest chip M&A failure overnight. What Huang didn't know was that Son had his eye on him from then on. Son Masayoshi couldn't hold back his face, "taking advantage of "saying goodbye to Softbank and quitting venture capital" while drawing a "new pie" while running ARM to avoid the limelight.

He regards ARM as a new journey in his life, a business in his later years. He said, "I fell in love with ARM before I bought it, and I'm going to focus on ARM, witness the next explosive growth, and dedicate myself to ARM as a whole for humanity." ”

Not to mention, "Golden Cicada Shell" to ARM, Son won sympathy from the outside world. Some American media praised the transformed Son Masayoshi, "Investment to entrepreneurship, the dream of Japan's richest man, for the benefit of mankind." "Time is the best medicine", the second phase of SoftBank's Vision Fund investment is slowly launched, "the next five years to invest in the greatest companies in countries around the world".

With the lessons of the downward trend of the first phase of the fund cycle, Son revised his investment strategy, "forming a form based on the Internet, supplemented by intelligent manufacturing, chips, and AI." "Masayoshi Son, who became famous for his Internet investment, has never been able to get rid of the Internet, and the valuation of investing in the Internet has grown rapidly, and it is easy to tell a story.

As for smart manufacturing, chips, and AI, to a certain extent, Son wants to use the portfolio of SoftBank Vision Fund II to match ARM's growth. ARM's weakness is that the imagination space is not enough, although it is in the first echelon of CPU consumer electronics, the market value is not high, from the global consumer electronics shipments of the first mobile phone, mobile phone first is Samsung. Samsung is not just one CPU supplier for ARM. Therefore, ARM is powerful, but it depends on the face of the "customer". Otherwise, how could Son have "fire-sold" ARM? Huang had already prepared the banknotes well.

Three

When it comes to Huang, Son seems to be "really staring at him."

Unable to sell ARM, Masayoshi Son is "determined to start a business" for the benefit of mankind, so the IPO is regarded as the ultimate journey of his entrepreneurship.

ARM's U.S. stock IPO has been clamoring for a long time, and it has not been smooth. It coincided with Nvidia's aggressive attack on AI chips, disturbing Wall Street. Masayoshi Son couldn't sit still, he asked ARM to cut into AI chips, and even the entire second phase of the SoftBank Vision Fund should invest in related industries. This move satisfied Wall Street and cleared the hurdles of U.S. stock IPOs, and in September 2023, ARM went public, rising 25% on its first day and having a market capitalization of $67.9 billion.

"Masayoshi Son, who spent $31 billion to buy ARM, won a beautiful comeback." Boosted by ARM, SoftBank Vision Fund also ushered in a phased "victory". According to the 2023 fiscal year report released by SoftBank, SoftBank Vision Fund has made a profit of $822 million, and ARM has performed well since its listing, relying on the "Nvidia Afterglow" market value to nearly double to $122 billion.

At first glance, Son seems to have won. The global AI uproar gave him the confidence to draw a "new pie". In 2024, the biggest expectation for Son is to "raise $100 billion to create an AI chip company codenamed Izanagi to challenge NVIDIA." ”

Masayoshi Son's "new cake" is undisguised and directly targets Nvidia. In other words, Nvidia, which has a market capitalization of more than $2 trillion, has as much room for growth as possible for Izanagi. Another $100 billion, déjà vu? Masayoshi Son played the "cycle" of painting cakes.

As the second phase of the $100 billion SoftBank Vision Fund nears its expiration, he drew $100 billion in Izanagi. "A cycle of 5 years, a new cake in 5 years." So, what role does Izanagi play in the benchmark against NVIDIA, and ARM, which is closely following NVIDIA's pace?

What kind of role? Nature plays the role of Son's retreat "tool". In the past, no one took over, but now shareholders take over. To say, Masayoshi Son is also very "shrewd", he sold the ARM equity held by the SoftBank Vision Fund to SoftBank in exchange for the profit of the SoftBank Vision Fund, on the one hand, he got the $8.2 billion capital contribution commitment from SoftBank shareholders, and on the other hand, he won the opportunity to contribute to the LP of the SoftBank Vision Fund and created the Izanagi capital plate.

According to data from the analysis platform WhaleWisdom, Son has started an "escape plan", and recently sold and reduced his holdings in star companies such as Coupang, the largest e-commerce platform in South Korea, DoorDash, the largest online food order demand aggregator in the United States, Grab Holdings, the largest travel platform in Southeast Asia, and Paytm, the largest payment platform in India. In the opinion of one analyst, "Son's madness is tinged with forced escape." "Because of the above-mentioned portfolio, the total amount of SoftBank Vision Fund has disappeared by nearly $29 billion. In addition, Son also reduced his holdings in SenseTime, which advocates original AI technology, in stages. He is trying to get rid of the "old pies" that have lost their value.

With the "new pie", ARM is also the "old pie", which is a bargaining chip to gain the trust and funds of all parties. SoftBank's fiscal year 2023 report is somewhat deceptive, with the SoftBank Vision Fund making a profit of $822 million, while SoftBank lost $1.46 billion. This is still under the operation of Masayoshi Son's "left and right", and the reason why SoftBank has continued to lose money and survive over the years depends on Masayoshi Son to "draw new pies one after another" for global LPs.

Miraculously, in the recent years when Son personally owed SoftBank $4.7 billion and failed to invest, his wealth has fluctuated as much as SoftBank loses every year. According to the Forbes rich list, in 2022 and 2023, Son's wealth will be worth $21.3 billion and $20.9 billion, and the Hurun Global Rich List shows that in 2024, Son's wealth will be worth $24.8 billion. It's really "a loss to the company, a rich boss." ”

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