Foshan has fired the first shot of this round of bailout in the Greater Bay Area, which can be called a milestone in Foshan's property market!
On May 13, the Foshan Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau and nine departments jointly issued a notice on "Several Measures to Continue to Promote the Steady and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market", which was called "Foshan Thirteen Measures".
No official tone, no clichés, Foshan's "shadowless feet" recruit meat, everyone comes together to appreciate it:
optimize land supply management;
appropriately optimize the requirements for the allocation of residential land;
Optimize the calculation rules of floor area ratio;
Implement the payment of the land transfer price in installments;
adjust the accounting rules for breach of contract liability for commencement and completion of construction;
Expand the coverage of the letter of guarantee;
Accurately meet the needs of project financing;
Rationally optimize the tax payment mechanism for enterprises;
Encourage and support the "trade-in" of housing, and the sale will be completed within one year, and the individual income tax will be refunded;
increase support for housing purchases with provident fund loans;
Implement the first set of dynamic adjustment mechanism for housing loan interest rates;
Relaxation of the policy of buying houses and entering households;
Residential apartments implement civil water and electricity price standards;
This is the most powerful, widespread, and comprehensive model of the rescue combination I have seen so far.
These thirteen contents accurately cover the land transfer end, the financing end of real estate enterprises, the housing replacement end and the talent introduction end.
From the perspective of the implementation object, this new policy can be roughly divided into three parts -
Articles 1 to 8, without exception, are all going to the local auction market and the development of real estate enterprises.
Optimizing land supply is equivalent to optimizing the flow rate of de-escalation in the next 2-3 years for real estate companies, and for local governments, it can stabilize the income of land auctions to the greatest extent, which can be described as killing two birds with one stone.
How to optimize the calculation rules of floor area ratio? To put it bluntly, we can increase the premium of real estate by optimizing products, encourage stealing area in disguise, use product generation to enhance competitiveness, and decentralize services;
Measures such as optimizing the allocation of construction, installment payment of transfer money, and expanding the coverage of letters of guarantee are intended to reduce the burden on real estate enterprises and stimulate enthusiasm for land acquisition.
Accurately meet the needs of project financing and reasonably optimize the tax payment mechanism of enterprises The two projects are clearer——
It not only solves the current "money shortage" pressure of real estate enterprises, but also helps to reduce the tax pressure of market entities.
Foshan is thoroughly pondered and understood:
I will not lose money by expanding your lending, and you can also earn a handful of land transfer money;
If you don't reduce the burden and the real estate companies collectively lie flat, then I will collect taxes with a hammer?
Secondly, from Article 9 to Article 12, it is mainly aimed at the demand side of housing, and it is also a real chapter.
The tax refund mechanism that encourages "trade-in" is equivalent to free for a limited time, which can be regarded as a clear understanding of "human nature".
Expanding the support of provident fund loans and promoting the dynamic adjustment of the interest rate of the first home loan are all to reduce the financing pressure on the demand side.
On February 20, after the central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the LPR for more than five years was adjusted to 3.95%;
However, Foshan has abolished the lower limit of mortgage interest rates, and most of the actual implementation of the first set of interest rates has remained between 3.15-3.35%.
The interest rate of the first CPF loan is 3.1%, which is very close to the interest rate of the first commercial loan.
At present, dozens of cities across the country are implementing the relaxation of house purchases, and there is nothing to say about playing cards to grab people.
Finally, the item "Residential apartments implement the price standard for civil water and electricity" is very interesting.
Since the large-scale bailout, there have not been many policies for apartments across the country.
The reason why Foshan is in a hurry to do this is directly related to the high local apartment inventory.
As of the end of the first quarter of 2024, Foshan's apartment de-conversion cycle has exceeded 3 years...
As early as the end of 2022, Foshan has fully lifted the purchase restriction and can buy at any time.
This enhanced version of the "Foshan Thirteen Articles" is full of desire to survive!
First of all, the decentralization situation of Foshan's property market is indeed under great pressure.
From January to April this year, a total of 27,103 first- and second-hand residential buildings in Foshan were sold, down 37.53% year-on-year.
The new housing market came directly to cut the market in half, with 11,361 units sold, a decrease of 52.78%.
Even in April, the traditional peak season, the transaction volume of new homes still showed a large decline year-on-year.
During the May Day holiday, a total of 801 new commercial residences were transacted in Foshan, a decrease of more than 1/3 compared with the same period last year.
According to statistics, the current inventory of newly built commercial residential buildings in Foshan is about 85,000 units, with a cycle of 24.7 months, a year-on-year increase of 8.7 months.
As of April this year, many of the top ten plates with the largest number of inventory units are Linguang plates, and even star towns such as Beijiao and Chencun are also impressively listed.
The new house is sold like this bear, and it doesn't affect the land financial income, which is a fool's dream!
In 2023, the total land transaction area of Foshan will be 1,661,700 square meters, and the income from land sales will be 33.726 billion.
Although there is a slight rebound compared with 33.266 billion in 2022, it is still in a historical position.
In the first four months of 2024, Foshan will supply a total of 7 residential land with a total construction area of 339,100 square meters, and 5 transactions will be completed, with a construction area of 326,700 square meters.
This is the second lowest transaction volume of residential land in the last five years, and it is only better than the same period in 2023.
However, judging from the situation of new houses in 2024, the land sales market at the end of this year will be more auspicious...
Among the first- and second-tier cities in China, Foshan's financial dependence on land is second only to Hangzhou, which is maintained between 120-140% all year round.
In addition, Foshan also has an unspeakable hidden, that is, the geographical location is quite special!
With the blessing of Guangzhou-Foshan Line, Foshan Metro Line 2 and convenient highway transportation, Guangzhou-Foshan City has become genuine.
The close proximity of the two core cities is unique in China's economic geography.
However, this seems to be a double-edged sword for Foshan -
There are not a few local young people who go to the provincial capital to develop, and many choose to settle down in Foshan because of the high housing prices and pressure in Guangzhou.
For Foshan, if you want to save the current situation in the primary and secondary markets, it is indeed necessary to take a more active attitude to the provincial capital to grab people.
The provisions on the demand side in the second half of the "Foshan Thirteen Articles" are almost all based on this logic.
I have an immature idea, I don't know whether to talk about it or not:
If Foshan can offer "can withdraw provident fund across the city to pay the down payment" at this time, it will definitely be called a king bomb!
As for whether Big Brother nods or not, that's another matter.
Secondly, the "negative growth" situation of Foshan's economy needs to be reversed urgently!
Foshan can be called the "low-key king" of China's economic map.
In 2023, there will be only four cities in the country with a total industrial output value of more than 3 trillion yuan, namely Shenzhen, Suzhou, Shanghai and Foshan.
Foshan, with a significantly smaller economy than the other three cities, is truly "China's fourth industrial city".
Even if it is compared horizontally at the provincial level, the industrial output value of Foshan can properly rank in the middle of the country.
However, in the first quarter of 2024, Foshan became the only city with negative growth among the 21 districted cities in Guangdong Province.
In terms of sub-items, the secondary industry, which is a traditional strength, has become a drag, with an added value of only 150.065 billion, a decrease of 0.3%.
This is mainly related to the industrial structure of Foshan City.
The five golden flowers of Foshan's manufacturing industry are home appliances, furniture, hardware, building materials, and food.
The output of microwave ovens, electric fans, sterilizers, ceramics, soy sauce and aluminum profiles ranks first in the world.
If you look closely, you will find that these are not only all traditional industrial categories, but also revolve around real estate except for food!
Some people say that Foshan's urban transportation and the real estate market are deeply bundled, which is definitely to the point!
In the past, there was a warm industrial slogan in Foshan, called "If there is a home, there is a Foshan made", but today it seems to have become a drag.
At the same time, Foshan is also facing a lot of foreign trade export pressure——
In the first quarter of 2024, Foshan's total import and export volume was 127.33 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 33.1%, of which the export of furniture, ceramics, lighting fixtures and other exports fell by more than 50%...
It is worth noting that the export volume only created less than 100 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.4%, and the ranking of foreign trade scale fell from the tenth in the country to the seventeenth in the country.
Foshan total: I can't manage other cities, it's amazing to grind the bottom slowly?
Carry out self-help as much as you can, and the entity and local shooting must always be the same, and strive to drag it until the dawn comes...
So you will see the "two eagernesses" of Foshan in the "Thirteen Articles of Foshan" -
First, it is eager to dredge the blockages of the real estate market at all levels;
Second, they are eager to convert the huge number of permanent residents into a registered population.
Stabilizing money and people is the biggest prerequisite for solving problems.
"Reducing the burden of real estate enterprises", "buying a house and settling down", "interest rate can be negotiated", "trade-in tax refund", "apartment people's water and electricity"...
To tell the truth, the "Foshan Thirteen Articles" can be called a great thing to demonstrate the great power of strategy and exhaust tactics.
In a way, it has done everything it can do.
However, the effect of this policy is unlikely to be a panacea!
Not to mention that in the past two years or so, the first and second-tier cities have repeatedly bailed out the market, all of which ended hastily with "ineffective after short-term stimulus";
Foshan's own industrial energy level and urban radiation alone limit the play of policy combinations.
If these two items are not broken, Foshan will most likely have to wait for the market to rotate.
Foshan is a super prefecture-level city, "too close to the provincial capital", which determines that the lower limit of Foshan's urban development will not be too low.
This was especially true in the early years when reckless heroes were prevalent.
However, such a geopolitical situation is very easy for the regional economy to form a dual structure of "front store and back factory".
And so it is.
By the end of 2023, there will be a total of 1,525 specialized, special and new "little giant" enterprises in Guangdong Province.
These companies tend to focus on new materials, new energy, precision instruments, information technology and high-end equipment manufacturing, which can be called the engine of the next stage of economic transformation.
Shenzhen alone occupies nearly 1/2 of the share of Guangdong Province, followed by Guangzhou and Dongguan, with 249 and 172 respectively.
What about Foshan? Less than 100!
The current situation of the real estate industry has intensified the urgent need for industrial upgrading in Foshan.
Such geographical characteristics and industrial characteristics determine-
Foshan's economic fundamentals and property market fundamentals seem to be only a part of Guangzhou, and they are not independent to a certain extent.
To put it simply, the volume and price trend of Foshan's property market is actually not determined by Foshan, but by the provincial city next door.
At present, many investors in Guangzhou are experiencing a painful process of "profit-taking", and the first-hand and second-hand housing markets are in an obvious moment of "exchanging price for volume".
In this case, there are a large number of "bamboo shoots" in Liwan and Baiyun in the main urban area of Guangzhou to choose from, and there is a high probability that buyers will not be enough to divide themselves.
In the short term, it is not realistic to expect purchasing power to spill west along the metro line to Foshan.
In addition, the urban area of Guangzhou, which borders Foshan, is mainly Liwan and Panyu.
The industrial energy level, supply situation and price system of these regions determine that even if the purchasing power really spills over to Foshan, the price-bearing capacity is relatively limited.
In this case, the "Foshan Thirteen" is more like building a scientific and reasonable drainage pipeline;
As for when the water will come in, it seems to have become the biggest suspense at the moment.
But, but—
The value of the "Foshan Thirteen" is far more than that.
Being able to arrange the supply side, the credit side, and the demand side at the same time is worth learning from cities with a higher energy level.
These measures, if they can be put in the head cities, can serve the goal of "destocking" to the greatest extent, and are extremely critical to stabilizing the real estate market.
And this is precisely the only way for local, enterprise, and individual debts to be taken at present.
At present, only a few cities in the country still maintain a relatively strict purchase restriction order in some areas.
The cost of credit and the extent of discounts are almost unprecedented.
Whether it is just needed or improved, you can pick and pick up slowly.