In the past two days, the headlines of major media around the world will be occupied by a 72-year-old Chinese face.
Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, after 20 years in power, closed the curtain with tears and handed over the baton to his successor Lawrence Wong, who is 20 years younger than him.
Many years later, when we look back at 2024, we will find that the smoothest transition of power in an important country took place in this small country.
Unlike the one-man show in the Kremlin or the noisy donkey-elephant battle on Capitol Hill, the transfer of power in "Po County" has been stable.
The "little red dot" on the map, a country with an area of only 1/22 of Beijing, has been surrounded by big countries since the day it was forced to cry independence, tempering the political and economic balance of the left and right.
In recent years, a large number of capitals and tycoons from all over the world, including China, have flocked here, which makes people think:
Why has Singapore become the most "stable" country in the world?
How "stable" is Singapore?
How "stable" is Singapore's prime minister's handover of power this time? It is simply more stable than "three fingers pinching snails", and the whole process does not leave any suspense to the outside world.
Singapore is a parliamentary republic, with the prime minister being the majority leader and the president only having the power to appoint. Therefore, the People's Action Party, which firmly holds the majority position, can directly decide on the choice of prime minister.
As early as April 2022, Lee Hsien Loong held a press conference to confirm that Lawrence Wong, then Finance Minister, will be Singapore's next prime minister.
Since then, Huang Xuncai has appeared frequently as his successor. Remember the 30-day "visa-free" arrangement that Singapore opened to China at the end of last year? It was he who announced it at a meeting in Tianjin.
On May 15, Lee Hsien Loong will officially step down from office. This date was also chosen by Lee Hsien Loong. He said that "Singapore should not have a prime minister over 70 years old", but it happened to be the new crown epidemic, which was delayed for two years. After that, he will continue to participate in political affairs in his capacity as Senior Minister of State.
You must know that from the era of Lee Kuan Yew to Lee Hsien Loong, this family sitting at the "crossroads of the East" has long been integrated with the country at the helm. The "C position", which has now withdrawn from the stage of power, has not caused even the slightest turmoil. The skill of "Duanshui Master" is well deserved.
Next, Lawrence Wong's important task is to lead the People's Action Party (PAP) to win the next general election with the help of Lee Hsien Loong. As long as it wins a majority in Parliament, the PAP can remain in power and decide who will be the next prime minister.
Over the past 60 years, the People's Action Party (PAP) has been in power as unshakable and stable as Mount Tai.
An important psychosocial factor is Singaporeans' thirst for stability, which has long been engraved in their bones.
In 1965, when Singapore was unanimously voted by the Malaysian Parliament to "kick out" the federation, even drinking water and eating became a problem. At the press conference, Lee Kuan Yew cried and declared independence. "There are many difficulties ahead, and the chances of survival are very slim."
This sense of existential crisis lingers in the memories of Singaporeans.
So, Lee Kuan Yew said, "Once Singapore elects a stupid government, we're all done." The country will sink and come to naught. ”
In his final speech, Lee Hsien Loong also emphasized:
"The three priorities of Singapore's construction are social cohesion, long-term planning, and political stability and trust.
My team and I are also doing our best to lead Singapore and secure its future. Our successors must do the same. ”
Pick up the horse and give it a few rides.
You must know that after Lee Kuan Yew stepped down as prime minister in 1990, he remained in the cabinet until 2011, a full 21 years. By the time he truly retired completely, Lee Hsien Loong had been prime minister for seven years.
How stable is this structure of power inheritance?!
Lee Hsien Loong's palmares
Singapore's stability is also built on an extremely strong economic foundation.
Recently, Lee Hsien Loong gave his last speech and choked up with tears. Everyone at the scene stood up and applauded for at least 1 minute to express their approval.
During his 20 years in power, Singapore's economy grew rapidly.
The total economic output has increased by more than four times from less than 100 billion yuan to more than 500 billion yuan. Singapore has also risen from 42nd to 33rd place in the global rankings.
Singapore's per capita GDP has reached 84,714 US dollars (about 611,000 yuan), which is unrivaled in Southeast Asia and among the best in the world.
Even in 2019, the World Economic Forum (WEF) recently released the "Global Competitiveness Report" showing that Singapore surpassed the United States to become the most competitive country in the world that year. According to the report, Singapore is the most open economy in the world, ranking first in terms of infrastructure, health and labour market.
For a small country, such an achievement is a miracle.
It can be said that the successor Prime Minister Lawrence Wong has a very good ruling foundation.
The new helmsman, whose ancestral home is Wenchang, Hainan, China, is a second-generation immigrant who later went to the United States to study and received a master's degree from Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government. After returning to Japan, he became a civil servant. In 2005, Lawrence Wong was appointed Lee Hsien Loong's principal private secretary for three years and was deeply trusted. Since 2011, he has served as Minister of Defence and Education, Minister of National Development, Second Minister of Finance, Minister of Education and Minister of Finance.
In the eyes of acquaintances, Huang Xuncai is "studious but not informal" and has affinity.
When he was in college, he used to play guitar on the street with his roommates. On TikTok, he posts videos of him playing the guitar from time to time. On Teacher's Day last year, Lawrence Wong played the famous song Love Story on the guitar and won many fans.
In addition, he is also a pet lover and loves to wear a black leather jacket and ride a motorcycle, without much of a rack. On the internet, he is affectionately referred to as "Daddy" and "Baby" by young Singaporeans.
These qualities have helped him gain more support from young voters.
Lawrence Wong plays guitar at a charity dinner. Source: Xinmin Evening News
By the way, Singapore's prime minister has an annual salary of 2.2 million Singapore dollars (about 11.8 million yuan), making him the highest-paid national leader in the world. The Minister is S$1.1 million.
High-salary, high-salary, high-salary, this is also unique in the world.
"Betting on both sides"
Looking at the world, Singapore has maintained very good relations with China and the United States, which is extremely rare.
From the "Wang-Koo talks" to the "Xi-Ma meeting", Singapore has often become an important place to communicate between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. In 2018, the "Kim summit" between Trump and Kim Jong-un also held a historic handshake in Singapore.
There is a proverb circulating in Singapore's diplomatic circles, "When elephants fight, grass suffers", and they never want to get involved in the struggle of great powers.
Lee Kuan Yew said that in order to avoid being dependent on any single external force, we can only bet as much as possible on multilateral sides and spread risks.
"No matter what the world is, Singapore has to accept it. Because it's too small to change the world. However, we can try to make the most of the limited space and weave between the 'giant trees' in the area. ”
Huang Xuncai will also follow Xiao Gui. He recently said that he is neither "pro-China" nor "pro-American" in diplomacy, but "pro-Singapore". This is clearly in Singapore's national interest.
It can be said that Singapore has done a good job of maintaining stability with a "balancing act" and reaping this "shuttle dividend".
It is the most important U.S. partner in Southeast Asia, absorbing more than 80 percent of U.S. investment in the region at its peak. According to 2021 statistics, there are nearly 5,500 U.S. companies operating in Singapore, with a cumulative direct investment of US$315 billion, more than the combined U.S. investment in China, India, and South Korea.
These investments account for about one-quarter of all FDI absorbed by Singapore.
At the same time, Singapore's relationship with China is also strengthening. In the past 20 years, Singapore's cumulative investment in China has surpassed that of the United States, South Korea and Japan, becoming China's largest source of foreign investment.
According to Lianhe Zaobao, Lee Hsien Loong has visited China 14 times in his 20 years as prime minister. Singapore has placed more than 15% of its outbound investment in Chinese mainland, especially Suzhou, Tianjin, Chongqing and Guangzhou.
Today, Singapore is spending tens of billions of dollars a year on Chinese mainland, betting on China's future development dividends.
The new Prime Minister Lawrence Wong made it clear that "never bet on China's weakness". This is a vote cast by Singapore with real money.
What do you mean by "betting on both sides" in Singapore?
In fact, it is more of a super investment company than a country. GIC and Temasek Holdings, both of which invest all over the world, wield trillions of wealth.
Today, Singapore is one of the world's four major international financial centers, one of Asia's important service and shipping centers, and the world's three major oil refining centers and oil trading centers.
From a global perspective, Singapore is like a hub, tied to the world economy, a weather vane, a thermometer.
The attractiveness of the "Stability Dividend".
Looking at it this way, it is not difficult to understand why countless capitals and wealthy people are pouring into Singapore.
Chasing the "stability dividend" is an important factor.
According to Singapore's Population Brief 2023, Singapore's total population increased to about 5.92 million, the number of citizens increased to about 3.61 million, and the number of permanent residents increased to about 540,000. Many of these people are from China.
Among them, there are many names that we are familiar with. Daniel Zhang of Haidilao, Chen Tianqiao of Shanda Network, Zhang Lei, founder of Hillhouse Capital, Li Xiting, chairman of Mindray Medical, Shen Nanpeng of Sequoia Capital, Ji Qi, founder of Ctrip and Homeinns, etc.
Not long ago, it was also rumored that Ma Yun's wife Zhang Ying spent nearly 300 million yuan to buy three old houses in Singapore after obtaining legal citizenship in Singapore.
Part of this is business layout, tax avoidance and other considerations. After all, Singapore is a low-tax haven in the world, with a personal income tax of up to 22% and a corporate income tax of up to 17%, no capital gains tax or inheritance tax, and overseas income is also tax-free.
But more importantly, the more unstable the geopolitics, the more wealthy people will emigrate to Singapore. The attractiveness of the "stability dividend" is becoming more and more critical.
After the 2018 Sino-US friction, Singapore emerged as the biggest winner.
According to statistics, the number of single-family offices (institutions that manage assets and mobilize resources for wealthy families) based in Singapore surged from 28 in 2018 to 400 in 2020 and soared to 1,400 by the end of 2023.
According to the 2023 Global Rich List released by Forbes, the total number of the world's richest people has decreased by 28 compared with 2022, while Singapore's richest people have bucked the trend by 9.
Stability has become an important competitiveness of Singapore. Not only political, but also economic, rule of law, defence and other aspects, Singapore provides a predictable institutional environment.
Many people are concerned about the competitive relationship between Singapore and Hong Kong. Today, Singapore is ahead of Hong Kong by more than US$100 billion in terms of economic aggregate, widening a significant gap.
However, if we compare the past 20 years, it is obvious that the "winners" of the two do not appear in the manufacturing industry, but are caused by special reasons.
You must know that Singapore's manufacturing industry has always been leading, while Hong Kong is actually slightly better in the financial field, and the development of the two sides has been showing a stalemate of catching up. Hong Kong is dominated by the capital market, Singapore is dominated by the foreign exchange market, and the total market value of Hong Kong stocks is about 7 times that of Singapore. The ranking of global financial centers is also comparable.
The turning point came in 2019.
Since the beginning of this year, Hong Kong's economic aggregate has stagnated, growing by only 20 billion in five years. Singapore has soared ever since.
What happened in 2019? You know.
For Hong Kong, a stable and predictable development environment is too important for economic prosperity.
In 1978, Deng Xiaoping visited Singapore and praised the "Garden City".
Lee Kuan Yew said to him, "We are the descendants of landless peasants in southern China, and you can do better than us." Deng Gong did not answer.
In 1992, Deng Xiaoping traveled south to Guangdong, urging continued reform and opening up. He said: Learn from the world, especially Singapore, and do better than them.
Today, Shenzhen's economy is on par with Singapore's.
However, in this diverse, internationalized and modern country composed of more than 70% Chinese, there are still many things worth learning and learning from.