Major signal release, China will completely adjust the economic layout (depth)

01

The first half of China's economy is over, and the second half of the economy is opening up!

Just like playing a ball game, the second half must be different from the first, and no matter which side you are, you have to adjust your style of play to get used to the new pace of the game.

The world is in the midst of great changes, and every major event can only accelerate the arrival of changes. In recent years, the epidemic has accelerated elimination, and at the same time, innovation has accelerated.

From the first half to the second half, what changes will occur to the logic of making money?

In a nutshell: in the first half, our revenue came from "capital" growth; In the second half, our revenue came from "operational" growth.

First of all, let's figure out what is capital? For example, land, houses, stocks, all kinds of advantageous resources (minerals, factories, etc.), that is, things that can be enjoyed by them, these things are often of great significance in the early stage of a country's development, because they can revitalize the capital of the whole society, and can also increase leverage to drive round after round of economic development.

If any country, enterprise, or individual wants to develop rapidly, it must solve the problem of primitive capital accumulation and must go through a process of primitive accumulation of capital. The process is like a "horse race". Once the productive forces are liberated, they will increase their horsepower and rush forward, who has more horsepower and who grabs more territory, which belongs to the barbaric growth stage, and there are two major dividends in the era of "horse racing":

The first big dividend: the "head dividend", which is aimed at manufacturing and real estate.

The second big dividend: "traffic dividend", aimed at the Internet industry.

These two major dividends have enabled China to complete three major infrastructure tasks:

The first is the physical infrastructure, which mainly relies on real estate;

The second is the infrastructure of the network, which mainly relies on the Internet;

The third is the abundance of products, mainly relying on manufacturing.

In the first half of China's economy, that is, in the 40 years from 1979 to 2019, the core problem we solved was the process of primitive accumulation of capital.

It is worth mentioning that looking at the world, only China's primitive accumulation process was completed without foreign aggression and colonial plunder, while the developed capitalist countries such as Britain/United States/Japan all relied on foreign colonial plunder to complete and accelerate this process.

For example, why did World War I and World War II exist? It is because the spoils are beginning to be unevenly distributed among the capitalist countries, and the new capitalist countries (the United States/Germany, etc.) need to redivide the world.

So how can China complete this process in just 40 years? This is due to the globalization of modern trade, especially after our accession to the WTO, domestic products have rapidly penetrated into all parts of the world, which is one of the important reasons for us to complete the original accumulation.

But now that we have completed the process of primitive accumulation of capital, we cannot stay in this state forever, what should China do next?

As we said at the beginning, China's economic growth is switching from being driven by "capital" to being driven by "operation".

So what is operation? It is to rely on management, optimization, and allocation to revitalize these resources, so that these resources can exert greater social value.

For example, there is no shortage of houses now, what is lacking is how to make use of idle houses; Now there is no shortage of products, what is missing is how to deliver the right products to the right people.

In other words, the era of horse racing is over, and then we must manage your one-acre and three-point land. The era of savage growth has passed, and the future is an era of intensive cultivation; The era of gold panning has passed, and the future is the era of alchemy.

In the past, we all relied on the growth of capital to make money, such as how many times the house price has increased, how much the stock has appreciated, but now the era of rapid capital growth has passed, if you still want to follow the previous logic, occupy a pit and sit and wait for appreciation, which is tantamount to waiting for the rabbit.

According to this logic, how to measure the future of a city, a company, and an individual? It depends on the operating income of this entity:

For example, the GDP of many cities is still high, but the public income is very low, which indicates that the city is in decline;

For example, the market value of many listed companies is still quite high, but the profits are getting smaller and smaller, and even starting to lose money, which shows that the company is also going downhill;

For example, many people in first-tier cities own tens of millions of real estate, but their annual income is less than 200,000, and the income is not enough to maintain the operation of the family, indicating that this person is also struggling to make ends meet.

Although emaciated camels are bigger than horses, once the trend occurs, it is difficult to reverse and even accelerate...... Someday, these subjects will encounter a crisis and begin to sell their capital (property) to survive until they die.

Of course, in this process, although the original accumulation of some people and enterprises is very low, their operating income is very high.

In the future, a large number of individuals and enterprises that make money by operating will be born, and they will not rely on capital to sit back and enjoy their success, but rely on new operations, new models, and new channels to make money, and they are the mainstay of China's economy in the second half.

If there is a big break, there must be a big stand. When a group falls, a group will rise up.

The most expensive tax in the world is called the "cognitive tax"

People spend their whole lives paying for cognition!

02

The first and second halves of China's economy have their own tasks:

In the first half, driven by capital, we must first build a good skeleton for the society through the innovation of "model + skills".

In the second half, driven by the operation, it is necessary to fill the society through "product + content" to make the society flesh and blood.

Capital first, then operation, this is often the two stages of individual and enterprise development, which is also a "hard first and then soft" process:

For example, a few years ago, we built a large number of civil projects, bridges, roads, and houses, which is a kind of construction of hard facilities, the purpose is to do a good job in the framework of society, only when the infrastructure of a society is perfected to a certain extent, people can better engage in scientific research and make products.

For example, a few years ago, we gave birth to a lot of Internet platforms, e-commerce, social networking, transportation, catering, etc., the construction of these platforms is also to build a framework for the society, these platforms greatly improve the efficiency of social operation, to bring many people the opportunity to start a business and employment.

When we improve the basic framework of society to a certain stage through the power of capital, we will focus on the content of our operations.

Therefore, in the first half of China's economy, through the accumulation of capital, two major tasks have been completed: to do a good job in infrastructure and houses with reinforced concrete, and to launch various Internet platforms to improve the efficiency of social operation.

In the era of building frameworks, development is more extensive and the order is not perfect, so many people are studying patterns and techniques, so it is easier for speculators to make money, which is a reality.

Therefore, the people who operate these two kinds of capital are the most profitable, the first is engaged in real estate, and the second is the successful construction of various platforms.

And in the second half, with the improvement of the business framework, only by operating the product and content well can there be a way out!

In fact, this is also an inevitability: in an era of high information symmetry, or in an era of more and more competition, all models and techniques will become no threshold, and capital will have nowhere to settle.

In the first half of the economy, a person's success has nothing to do with personal ability and contribution, as long as you are bold, can play routines, and do whatever it takes, you can succeed.

But the second half is different, the Internet is becoming more and more developed, the information is becoming more and more symmetrical, there are fewer and fewer intermediate links, the opportunities are becoming more and more equal, the channels are becoming more and more open, and the resources are becoming more and more transparent. The best technology (tool) will definitely be mastered by those who are the best at using it; The most valuable ideas must also be acquired by those who contribute the most.

Therefore, this is also an era of excess routines, everyone is familiar with and mastered all kinds of routines, and when everyone is using routines, those who are attentive, attentive, and valuable have become the most popular people.

From now on, the opportunities will be more and more fair, the legal system and regulations will be more and more perfect, the society will bid farewell to the barbaric growth period, and begin to develop in depth/refinement, if a person wants to succeed, he must rely on the value you can create, and we are entering an era in which "value" determines everything.

In an era of high symmetry of value, each person can only get what matches him, and once what he has exceeds his ability/value, trouble will arise.

Therefore, in the future, we must focus on operating products and content or services, instead of relying on shortcuts or speculation, and no longer rely on the power of capital.

I often say that China's real good era has just begun, because the significance of the upgrade from "capital" to "operation" is not only that the logic of society is different, but also that it can change the mainstream values of society.

The era when everyone is concentrating on making products and content, and heavy operation is the era of health and the best era.

Looking at life from another angle, in the first half of China's economy, everyone made money by speculation, and in the second half of China's economy, everyone had to make money by hard work.

It can also be understood in this way: the most typical feature of the second half of China's economy is that only hard-working and good people can make money.

This sentence is very popular, but it is very simple.

03

Looking at human society, we can find that human development is inseparable from a law, that is:

Fight for opportunities in the short term, fight for ability in the medium term, and fight for character in the long term.

People's success depends on opportunities at the beginning, but at a certain stage, it depends on ability. If a person wants to be invincible for a long time, he must have a strong character, otherwise he will definitely fall.

It can also be understood in this way: birth determines how high your starting point is; Abilities determine how fast you develop; Character determines how far you can go in the end.

In the same logic, there is a law in the development of enterprises:

Short-term marketing, medium-term marketing, long-term product.

The success of an enterprise often needs to take advantage of the situation at the beginning and do a good job in marketing. But at a certain stage, it depends on the model, and the model must be the most advanced and in line with the trend of the times.

However, if an enterprise wants to develop in the long run, it must be able to provide excellent products or services, otherwise it will not be able to play.

There have been many such cases around us: for example, companies like Huang Taiji and LeTV have had unlimited scenery, they either rely on the tuyere or marketing, but everyone has seen the current state.

The development of cities is also inseparable from a law, that is:

Short-term policy, medium-term population, long-term service.

The success of the city needs to focus on policy support at the beginning, and then the influx of population is the key, and whether it can attract creative young people is the core.

However, the real core competitiveness of a city is actually its public service capabilities, such as work efficiency, medical care, education, transportation, welfare, etc., which determine the long-term development of the city.

Through the above discussion, we can summarize two social laws:

1: All human competition, in the final analysis, is the competition of "character" and "product".

2: All the victories of mankind are the victories of "values"!

04

In the first half of China's economy, many people's fortunes seemed to be capability, but in fact they were more the product of speculation.

The funny thing is that these people always think that they are done when they succeed, and they think that they can sit back and relax, and they completely forget the law of "hard work and wealth will be rich for a long time, and opportunistic tricks will invite disaster". Therefore, many people return to poverty on the surface because of bad luck, but behind it is karma, the law.

Some people must say: No, there are many people around me who have good character and positive values, but they are all excluded by those crooked people.

Indeed, the extensive development model of the past has inevitably created a vulgar society, under this social structure, everyone is pursuing short-term interests, and they are pursuing the concept of grabbing a handful and leaving, people must become vulgar in order to survive and live a better life, many people have become brazen, and those who have come out of the mud and are not stained, but are ostracized.

What I want to say is that the progress of human civilization and the development of countries, enterprises and individuals have always been tortuous, and even partial regression has always occurred, and it is abnormal not to take many detours. But you can never go wrong in the general direction.

This world seems to be unfair, some people rush to the sky when they gain power, and some people are talented but buried without a trace. But if we look at this society a little longer, a little higher, a little farther away, we will find that it is really fair.

Because along with the transformation of the economy, there will inevitably be a phenomenon, that is, the restructuring of wealth. The logic of wealth restructuring is that wealth is always reserved only for those who deserve it. The fairest thing about Chinese society is that once a person's IQ and wealth do not match, this society has 100 ways to harvest you.

For example, those who take over Ponzi schemes often have IQs at the bottom of society, because their IQ is simply not enough to control the wealth they possess or inherit, so they should let usury and pyramid schemers harvest their wealth and increase the "liquidity" of social wealth.

The so-called game of drumming and passing flowers is passed from high IQ to low IQ in turn, and it will inevitably be passed to you, unless you can still find someone with a lower IQ than you.

In the age of the Internet, information is becoming more and more transparent, and in this era, all kinds of stupid people are constantly being identified, and they are being beaten to the bottom of society, so that they are enslaved.

At the same time, this era is constantly discovering smart people, holding these people up, allowing them to control wealth, and then manage and lead society.

Therefore, the money that a person earns by luck often loses by strength.

The world seems to be unpredictable, and the times are changing with each passing day, but in the dark, there is an invisible force that controls the operation of society!

This is called "Heavenly Dao".