Yesterday's market is worth talking about, so I'll share my community's review.
The original text is as follows:
I posted a post before the market opened in the morning.
The weekend's bad financial data was just scary.
In fact, under the three-way game, Yang Ma deliberately squeezed the water.
On the contrary, the central mother dares to squeeze water, which just shows that the speed of currency circulation is picking up.
This is completely different from what most people understand.
Over the weekend, I saw a lot of bloggers making a fuss about messing around and saying that they were going to fall sharply on Monday.
However, today's market is actually quite stable.
Today's losses were limited, with Hong Kong stocks Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Technology and China Concept all hitting new highs.
The Chinese concept has also risen to the position where we should reduce our position slightly in portfolio four.
Hong Kong stocks are rising, why don't A shares follow?
1. Bad boys will continue to be smoked
Do you remember that on the day of Bugo's visit to China, I told such a story?
I don't know if you understand?
If you understand it, you should know that the play on the ticket side is not over yet.
The parents are tired and have to rest at night and not make noise to the neighbors (America).
Wake up during the day and smoke again.
If the ticket is pumped, it will cause a certain liquidity shock.
That's it today, dragging down the performance of the entire market, with the micro-cap index falling 3.19%.
There are 62 ST companies with a falling limit!
Last week, there were three things:
1. Both ST Meishang and three state-owned enterprises were found to be fraudulent and were ST;
2. There is a private placement runaway;
3. The small ticket has recovered some vitality, and the micro-cap stock index has risen to the position of the long-term moving average group.
Now that he has recovered a little vitality, of course, he will continue to be beaten.
It is a reason to torture Ziwei with Mama Rong.
All of these things will greatly reduce the risk appetite of funds on small bills.
No more illusions. There are a large number of stocks on the side of the small ticket that will fall to pieces.
It's just that considering the liquidity shock, it will be slowly beaten one by one.
It is precisely because A-shares still have the game of institutional transformation that they did not follow the rise of Hong Kong stocks.
But don't worry, it will be made up later.
Second, the CSI 300 has a stable batch
The CSI 300 remains low volatility, climbs slowly, and stays above the annual line.
The next thing is to wait for the 50-day line to catch up and then launch the next shock.
It is worth noting that I did not see the figure of the national team guard today!
CSI 300 ETFs did not have a stack.
This is a very good phenomenon.
It shows that the institution has begun to stop tossing on the CSI 300 and has begun to stop internal friction.
The national team's goal of stopping internal friction is in the process of being achieved.
Today, the CSI 300's turnover accounted for 27.4%.
Last week, I analyzed with you that the turnover of the CSI 300 will stabilize at more than 50% in the future.
That's when the time to stop tossing the receipts. It's still early!!
With the increase in the proportion of turnover, the CSI 300 can double even if its performance does not rise. This is a very simple arithmetic problem.
3. M2 continues to be released
Today, the 1-year CD rate is down to 2.09%.
After squeezing the water in a short period of time, Yang Ma will continue to release M2 out.
You might care a lot about M1.
Don't worry, M1 will only increase after M2 is released to a critical point.
Why?
Because in the early days of the recovery, it was too easy for companies to borrow money from banks.
They don't have to keep much demand on their current account at all, so M1 will lag a bit.
When M2 increases to a critical point, the velocity of money will also come to a critical point.
When the time comes, the central mother will tighten M2, and the company will keep more cash in the current account.
I can give a rough prediction.
When the 1-year CD rate falls below 1.8%, or even 1.5%, M1 will have an inflection point.
So don't be fooled by this month's financial data.
As I said at the beginning.
Because in the quantitative models of many institutions, the weight of financial data is not small.
And the central mother deliberately makes the data low, which will make the models of these institutions invalid.
It's a toss for these institutions.
Fourth, there will be changes in the United States this week
Now the U.S. stock market has built a double top.
There will be important data releases from the United States this week.
There is a high probability that U.S. stocks will continue to fall.
Then the rebalancing of savings rates between China and the United States will continue to exert its power.
U.S. equities are now very strongly correlated with our 30-year Treasuries.
Because the internal cause of their current trend is the same.
At present, the 30-year national debt is almost untenable.
5. Summary
Judging from today's market, the financial data has no negative impact on the market at all.
If there was an impact, the stock market would have fallen long before the release.
Today's A-share is mainly a game to beat the logic of "bad boys".
In the future, it will be the same as Mama Rong torturing Ziwei, smoking for a while and resting for a while.
This process is very long, and the transformation from an investment market to a financing market cannot be completed all at once.
This process will bury a lot of retail investors and institutions.
But the future is bright, it depends on what your choice is.
The reward is voluntary, and 1 cent is silently supported, haha!
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