Source of this article: Times Finance Author: Wang Yingling
Summer is coming, and it's the season of "ho" crayfish again.
However, recently, the price of crayfish has plummeted, and related topics have frequently appeared on hot searches.
Times Finance learned during a visit to the Huangsha Aquatic Products Wholesale Market in Guangzhou that the current sales are farmed crayfish, mainly in Hubei production areas, Xiaoqing (2-4 money) wholesale price is 7 yuan/jin, Zhongqing (4-6 money) is 12 yuan/jin, Daqing (6-8 money) is 17-18 yuan/jin.
In late March, at the beginning of the crayfish market, the price of Zhongqing was still above 20 yuan / catty. In just over a month, the price has fallen by more than half.
From dozens of yuan a catty to less than ten yuan a catty, eating crayfish has changed from an occasional "small luxury" to the realization of "shrimp freedom", why is the price of crayfish more and more close to the people?
According to data from the official account of China Aquatic Products, the aquaculture output of crayfish in mainland China will reach 2.8907 million tons in 2022 and more than 3 million tons in 2023.
Zhang Wenwen, a special expert of Breck's agricultural big data applet and general manager of Gretel Marketing Center, told Times Finance that the price of crayfish has fallen this year, on the one hand, because of the expansion of the breeding area and the increase in production. "In 2023, the output of crayfish will reach 3 million tons, which is already the fourth largest freshwater aquaculture species in the mainland. The market demand has changed from being in short supply to being balanced between supply and demand, or even in excess. ”
In addition, Zhang Wenwen pointed out that crayfish deep-processed products and their exports were less than expected, and the processing plant was under-operating and the purchase volume was reduced. At the consumption level, the main consumption scene of crayfish is night snack shops, but the night night economy in the past two Chinese New Year's Eve is relatively weak, and crayfish consumption has also decreased.
"Top Night Supper" crayfish, photo by Times Finance
"Lower price, faster drop"
In the past two months, the price of crayfish has indeed suffered a "cliff-like decline".
Qianjiang in Hubei Province is an important production area of crayfish. Times Finance found that the crayfish vertical e-commerce platform Shrimp Valley 360 shows that from the end of March to the present, green and red crayfish of different specifications such as 2~4 money shrimp, 4~6 money shrimp, and 6~8 money prawns have all declined sharply to varying degrees.
Taking the price of crayfish in Qianjiang area in the past month as an example, on April 7, the price of 4~6 yuan of green shrimp was 24 yuan/jin, and on May 13, the price dropped to 12 yuan/jin, a decrease of 50%.
In the Huangsha Aquatic Products Wholesale Market in Guangzhou, merchants are packing crayfish for shipment, photo by Times Finance
"In previous years, crayfish also had a V-shaped price trend of 'rising after the high, medium and low', but compared with previous years, the outstanding feature of this year's crayfish price trend is that the price has fallen rapidly, and the low point is lower, especially for small and medium-sized shrimp, the price has almost halved." Zhang Wenwen said that around April 8, the purchase price of Zhongqing Tangkou was 20 yuan, and by April 23, in just half a month, it fell to about 10 yuan, and Xiaoqing fell to 5 yuan, falling below the lowest price last year.
The price of crayfish has plummeted, and farmers are feeling it even more obviously.
At four o'clock in the morning, Zhao Nan and his grandmother loaded the hundreds of catties of crayfish just fished out of the pond onto the tricycle, the shrimp dealers were already waiting for the shrimp to be collected on the side of the road in the village, they asked several shrimp dealers, the price of 4-6 money Zhongqing shrimp is about 10 yuan / catty, "Grandma is very distressed, and finally I can't ask the price is good, and the shrimp is sold to the shrimp dealer at a price of 11 yuan / catty." ”
Zhao Nan's home is in Jingzhou, Hubei, at the junction with Qianjiang River in Hubei, and is one of the source production areas of crayfish. Zhao Nanjia is a small-scale farmer in the village, with a breeding area of about 6 acres. Repeatedly asking and comparing prices between different shrimp sellers, but not being able to sell a good price, has been happening almost every day recently.
Zhao Nan sells shrimp in the early morning, photo courtesy of the interviewee
"This year's price has dropped a lot compared with last year", Zhao Nan told Times Finance, "The price of the festival will be higher, during the May Day last year, the shrimp of the green specifications can be sold to 15 yuan / catty, but this year the highest has not been 15 yuan, and on April 28 before May Day, the lowest was sold at 6.5 yuan / catty." ”
"Every year in May, crayfish are listed in large quantities, and the price will be lower than when it was first listed in March, but this year it is even lower and more obvious. On the one hand, the price is lower, and on the other hand, the price falls faster. Zhao Nan said.
In Zhao Nan's village, crayfish farming is very common, "except for the elderly who are not physically strong, almost every family will raise, in the past two years, there are indeed more and more people raising shrimp around, especially the large-scale farmers who have contracted a large area." Zhao Nan said.
Zhao Nan's feelings are not unique. According to the "China Crayfish Industry Development Report (2023)", the comprehensive output value of the mainland crayfish industry in 2022 will be as high as 458 billion yuan (statistics do not include Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan), with a breeding area of 28 million mu and an output of 2.8907 million tons. And in 2023, this figure exceeds 3 million tons.
Specifically, in 2023, the crayfish breeding area in Hubei Province will reach 9.819 million mu, and the output will reach 1.242 million tons, an increase of 9.96% year-on-year.
In recent years, many local governments have also made financial investment in breeding, breeding, and industrial chain construction to support industrial development.
In 2022, Hubei Province will invest 190 million yuan in support funds for the crayfish industry chain at all levels, and in the same year, the construction funds for the construction of Jiangsu crayfish industry cluster projects will exceed 200 million, and Jiangxi Province will issue a three-year action plan for the development of the crayfish industry (2020-2022), with more than 200 million yuan invested by all levels of finance.
Therefore, since 2016, the domestic crayfish breeding area has continued to grow, and by 2022, the national crayfish breeding area will reach about 28 million mu.
In addition to the traditional crayfish farming provinces, Sichuan, Guangxi, Yunnan, Hainan and other places have also seen large-scale trial farming, of which Sichuan crayfish production has increased by more than 4 times in five years.
Zhang Wenwen said that at present, the main production areas of crayfish in Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi five provinces, in the main production area of the breeding area has basically stabilized, at present, the non-main production areas such as Guangxi, Sichuan, Heilongjiang and other provinces of the breeding area is growing rapidly, the government is also vigorously promoting.
"However, the decline in prices in the past two years has had an impact on the enthusiasm of farmers, and the growth rate of breeding area may not be so fast. In addition, the price of low, there will be differentiation of farmers, the poor level of breeding will withdraw, the higher level will continue to survive. Zhang Wenwen told Times Finance.
"A few more years"
In recent years, why are there more and more "shrimp farmers"? The answer may lie in a comparison of benefits.
According to the research and statistics of Jiangxi agricultural and rural departments, in the comprehensive planting and breeding mode of rice and shrimp, the yield of single-season rice is stable at more than 500 kg, the yield of crayfish per mu is more than 100 kg, and the average efficiency per mu can reach more than 1,800 yuan, and the comprehensive benefit is 6-8 times that of single-cropping rice.
According to the sampling survey statistics of Scientific Fish Farming magazine in many places in Hubei, in 2022, the average gross income of general farmers and high-end farmers will be 3485 yuan (2651 yuan in 2021) and 3953 yuan/mu respectively, and the average net profit of the two will be 2249 yuan and 2562 yuan/mu respectively.
In Zhao Nan's view, compared with planting crops, raising crayfish is a laborious task, more costly, and more manual care.
"Shrimp seedlings will cost 11 yuan per catty when they are bought, and this year I bought 600 catties of shrimp seedlings, and the feed costs 100 yuan per day. From February to June, the annual breeding cost is calculated at 30,000 or 40,000 yuan. Zhao Nan said.
Not only the money, but also the time and energy. Farmers have to go to pick up the shrimp at two or three o'clock in the morning every day, pick the shrimp out of the shrimp pot, and screen out the size. It takes two or three hours to sell shrimp. I also have to use the daytime to feed the feed, which takes another two or three hours, "a lot of time and energy".
The shrimp pond in Zhao Nan's village, courtesy of the interviewee
But the benefits are also much higher than those of planted crops, "although shrimp farming is tiring, it is also for life." In the rural areas, the income from only planting rice and rape is not high, and the freezing rain in Hubei at the beginning of this year is more serious, and the output of rapeseed has decreased, and the rape planting is not very profitable this year. Zhao Nan said.
Zhao Nan told Times Finance that the income of breeding crayfish is uncertain, limited by three factors, one is the size of the shrimp from that day, depending on the size and fullness of each shrimp; the second is the weight of the shrimp, that is, the total amount of shrimp from that day; The third is the market market, the daily market is determined by the market supply and demand, up and down, "such as the rainy weather is not good, the price is high if the amount of goods is small, the weather is hot, and the demand is not much, the price will definitely fall." ”
In the village where Zhao Nan is located, shrimp and rice continuous cropping is a typical breeding model, "we put shrimp seedlings here in February, at the end of March, crayfish have been listed, but the yield is not high, our family is only about 10 catties per day, at the end of April rose to 30-40 catties per day, to May, the yield began to rise, there are 80-100 catties per day, to the middle of June, it is necessary to plant rice, the yield has been reduced, for example, our family to empty all the crayfish before June 20. Zhao Nan said.
This also means that for Zhao Nan, the efficiency of breeding crayfish in a year depends on May.
"May is the golden period of production and sales, but the price is the lowest, so far we have not returned to the capital, so it is indeed a bit panicked. Last year, my family's income was about 30,000 yuan, and this year I am afraid that it is only half, and some farmers in the village who are not as big as us and have a slightly higher rate of dead shrimp are likely to lose money. ”
Zhang Wenwen believes that from the analysis of the breeding end, this year's crayfish farming price drop is large, low price reasons are also many, "one is the climate factors, last year was a warm winter, the survival rate of shrimp seedlings is high, out of the hole early, the batch listing time of adult shrimp is earlier than in previous years; Second, due to the high price of seedlings and the low price of shrimp last year, the shrimp in each pond mouth is relatively sufficient, and the influence of climatic factors is superimposed, the seedling price is low and it is not easy to sell, resulting in a large density of seedlings in each original pond, which affects the growth speed, making there are fewer prawns and more small and medium-sized shrimps; Third, the feeding amount is insufficient, because the shrimp price is low, the enthusiasm of farmers to feed has declined, and the feeding amount is insufficient, which further aggravates the situation of less large shrimp and more small shrimp. ”
"With the end of rice and shrimp, the price of medium and large shrimp will rebound to a certain extent this year, but if consumption continues to be weak, it will be difficult to rebound significantly." Zhang Wenwen pointed out to Times Finance.
In terms of market trends, Zhang Wenwen believes that aquaculture itself has a cyclical nature, and there will be a low point if there is a high point, "the price of the previous year was good, and the profit of small and medium-sized shrimp was similar to that of large shrimp, and the price of small and medium-sized shrimp was lower in the past two years; Last year, the price of seedlings was high, and everyone wanted to sell shrimp seedlings, but this year's seedling prices were low; In previous years, prices fell in May, and fell in April this year; If the price is good, the amount of breeding will be expanded, and the loss will reduce the amount of breeding, and the market will have a certain adjustment. ”
Zhang Wenwen believes that "the current price decline is affected by both supply and demand factors, with the recovery of consumption, as well as the development of crayfish deep processing, the growth of exports, etc., these variables will have an impact on prices." ”
In addition, Zhang Wenwen pointed out that the culture model of crayfish is basically rice-shrimp co-cropping. "In this sense, as long as the price of crayfish has the hope of rebounding, farmers and the government will not give up the opportunity of crayfish." ”
Zhao Nan also told Times Finance that crayfish is an important source of income for many farmers in the village, "Even if the price is not good this year, everyone says it is more difficult, but next year I still want to continue to raise it, I want to wait and see for a few more years, and I don't want to give up easily." ”
(At the request of the interviewee, Zhao Nan is a pseudonym in the article)