In April, credit distribution was more balanced, and the quality and efficiency of financial support were further improved

Reporter Tan Zhijuan reports from Beijing

Credit growth remained stable in April: A few days ago, data released by the central bank showed that in April, new RMB loans were 730 billion yuan, an increase of 11.2 billion yuan year-on-year; The scale of new social financing decreased by 198.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 1.4 trillion yuan. At the end of April, broad money (M2) increased by 7.2% year-on-year, 1.1 percentage points lower than the end of the previous month.

In the view of industry experts, the scale of new RMB loans and social financing in April increased less than that in March, mainly due to seasonal reasons, and it is expected that new loans and social financing will increase seasonally in May.

In this regard, Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, believes that from the perspective of financial data, the effect of balanced credit delivery has initially appeared, which more effectively matches the demand of real economic entities and leaves stamina for loan growth during the year. The growth rate of social finance fell in April, but it is expected to gradually rebound in the future; At the same time, the growth rate of M2 has slowed down, but the quality and efficiency of financial services for the real economy have been further improved.

Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, also said: "The fluctuation of financial data in April was mainly affected by the superposition of various short-term factors. Looking ahead, with the reversal of the 'balanced loan delivery' effect, new loans of all types are expected to continue to increase year-on-year in the second quarter, and driven by factors such as the receding peak of treasury bond maturity, the opening of ultra-long-term special treasury bond issuance, and the acceleration of the pace of local government bond issuance, the new social finance data will not only return to positive growth, but also increase year-on-year in some months. ”

Credit is more balanced

In terms of new credit, RMB loans increased by 730 billion yuan in April, an increase of 11.2 billion yuan year-on-year. At the end of April, the balance of RMB loans was 247.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, unchanged from the previous month, remaining at a relatively high level, and credit allocation was more balanced.

Wen Bin said: "April is a small month for traditional credit, and the scale of credit supply usually falls significantly month-on-month, but under the guidance of the low base in the same period last year and the stable credit rhythm at the beginning of the quarter, new RMB loans in April this year achieved a slight year-on-year increase. ”

Zhang Yu, deputy director and chief macro analyst of Huachuang Securities Research Institute, also told reporters that in the past, financial institutions had a seasonal pattern of "good start" in credit delivery, and the loan rush in the first quarter of this year has eased, and the pace of delivery is smoother than last year. At present, the effect of balanced credit allocation has initially appeared, leaving stamina for loan growth during the year, and more effectively matching the demand of real economic entities.

Data from the central bank showed that in the first four months, RMB loans increased by 10.19 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.13 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans increased by 813.4 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 5 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 808.4 billion yuan. Loans to enterprises (institutions) increased by 8.63 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 2.56 trillion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 6.61 trillion yuan.

Wen Bin said: "At present, the effect of balanced credit allocation has initially appeared, which has left room for loan growth during the year, and has also more effectively matched the demand of real economic entities. ”

Wen Bin also pointed out that in the medium and long term, the mainland's economic restructuring, transformation and upgrading are accelerating, the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market has undergone major changes, the prevention and control of local debt risks has been strengthened, the economy has become lighter, the demand for credit has weakened compared with previous years, and the credit structure is also being optimized and upgraded accordingly. Therefore, the banking industry should gradually abandon the scale complex in terms of business model and internal assessment, meet the effective financing needs of the real economy with appropriate financial supply, and avoid the imbalance between supply and demand and the idling of capital precipitation.

Liang Si, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, also told China Business Daily: "Although the year-on-year growth rate of total credit has declined, efficient enterprises that really need funds will receive more financing, thereby improving the efficiency of capital use and the quality and efficiency of financial support." ”

The quality and efficiency of financial services for the real economy have been further improved

In terms of M2, at the end of April, the balance of M2 was 301.19 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, and the growth rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points month-on-month.

Wen Bin believes that the slowdown in the growth rate of money supply is mainly affected by multiple factors: first, since the beginning of the year, the bond market has been bullish to boost the yield of asset management products such as wealth management, and bank deposits have been diverted to wealth management; Second, the regulatory authorities have increased the regulation of idling arbitrage of funds and manual interest replenishment by banks, so as to squeeze out some of the inflated deposits and loans; Third, the accounting of the added value of the financial industry has been optimized, and the motivation of individual local governments to increase the added value of finance through the expansion of deposits and loans has been significantly weakened.

However, Wen Bin pointed out: "The current M2 balance has exceeded 300 trillion yuan, the stock of money is not low, and the decline in growth does not mean that the financial support for the real economy is weakened, but also means that the quality and efficiency of the financial system to serve the real economy have been further improved." ”

Wen Bin also said that after some funds are diverted from deposits to wealth management, although they are no longer included in the M2 statistics, the supply of funds in the real economy has not fundamentally changed, and the effect of "squeezing water" in the short term has also made financial support for the real economy more practical and efficient.

Liang Si also said that it is necessary to look at the downward trend of M2 growth rationally. Because in Liang Si's view, "since the beginning of this year, the regulatory authorities have continuously taken measures to revitalize the financial resources that have been inefficiently occupied, reduce the idling and precipitation of funds, and vigorously develop direct financing." As a total indicator, the growth rate of M2 has declined under the influence of the year-on-year increase in new loans, but the improvement in the efficiency of the use of existing funds will not have an impact on the growth rate of M2, so it is necessary to rationally look at the phenomenon of downward growth of M2. ”

Looking ahead, Wen Bin said: "In the coming months, with the gradual improvement of financing demand in the real economy, the acceleration of financing by government departments, and the gradual return of the bond market to fundamental logic, the growth rate of money supply is expected to stabilize. In addition, in the longer term, with the development of direct financing and the deepening of finance, the development of bond and credit markets will be more balanced, and social financing may be more suitable to reflect the total amount of financial support. ”

Zhang Yu also expects the growth rate of money supply to stabilize in the coming months.

Because in Zhang Yu's view: First, the financing demand of the real economy is gradually improving. In the economic operation, the positive factors have increased, the momentum has continued to increase, the economic recovery trend is obvious, and the financing needs in the fields of scientific and technological innovation, green development, and inclusive small and micro enterprises will also be more visible.

Second, government financing is expected to accelerate. The gradual accumulation of counter-cyclical adjustment of fiscal policy, the early issuance and use of ultra-long-term treasury bonds, and the acceleration of the issuance and use of special bonds will also support the growth of monetary aggregates.

Third, the bond market has gradually returned to the logic of fundamentals. Since April, the People's Bank of China has repeatedly warned of the risks of the bond market, and the yield of 10-year treasury bonds has risen since late April, resulting in fluctuations in the yield of wealth management and a decrease in attractiveness.

Looking forward to the future, Wen Bin believes that considering that the current money stock is not low, in addition to guiding the reasonable growth and balanced delivery of credit, we should focus on revitalizing the stock of financial resources, avoiding the idling of capital precipitation, improving the output efficiency of credit resources, and promoting the accelerated development of direct financing, and guiding the financing structure to be more suitable for the transformation and upgrading of the economic structure, which is also the focus of the next step, so as to achieve reasonable growth in quantity and effective improvement in quality to meet the needs of high-quality economic development.

In this regard, the "Report on the Implementation of China's Monetary Policy for the First Quarter of 2024" proposes to "strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments", "reasonably grasp the relationship between the two largest financing markets of bonds and credit, guide the reasonable growth and balanced supply of credit, maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, and keep the scale of social financing and money supply in line with the expected targets of economic growth and price levels".

(Editor: Meng Qingwei Review: Hao Cheng Proofreader: Zhai Jun)