After a round of phenomenal killings at the beginning of 2024, the market has recently begun to fluctuate more comfortably, and structured and indexed operation is the main feature of market development. Continuing to maintain our view, the May market should belong to a more comfortable recovery window of the year, and the current external outskirts are not much more bearish than expected, and the development model of the index is just right
Let's talk about the recent rumors of public utility price increases, which are not rumors, and have been implemented immediately, such as the increase in the price of some high-speed railways, the increase in water prices in some cities, and so on. It doesn't matter what we think, it is more important to understand the logic behind it, everything is still the reality that we have to meet in the post-real estate era. The previous vigorous real estate benefit movement can also be understood as the subsidy for our cost of living with the dividends of related industries after the opening of land finance, all of which have declined with the prosperity of real estate and are no longer sustainable. In the stock market, public utilities varieties are the out-and-out flow responsibility after the fund bear fell in 2021, as evidenced by the cyclical trend of representative companies such as China Merchants Highway, Xingrong Investment, and ENN Shares. Of course, there is also an interpretation that what our economy needs most at the moment is to restart inflation and reverse deflationary expectations, which is very important, and I tend to think that utility price increases are more of an inevitable sinking of local fiscal pressures. Since the trend can't be stopped, it's not bad to take advantage of the opportunity to reimburse expenses in the stock market
The pork sector can be called the bouncing king of A-shares, and the previous 3.5-year cycle like the trade wind, there was no major deviation before this pig cycle, and it was not until this long bottom that people gasped. The good news is still to be said, compared with the beginning of May 2024 and the beginning of April, the price of pork rose slightly by 0.7%, and in April, many leading companies pointed out in the survey of institutional investors that they have achieved a single month of profit correction, so the recent trend tracking of this sector should be more careful. How lethal is this cycle? Take the livestock ETF as an example, after a round of rise, but it still lost 33% since its listing. The reason for the market bounce last year was that the production capacity was unfavorable, and the sows, as potential incremental converters, should have declined steadily under the pressure of industry-wide losses, but they could not stand the scythe of the kings. The reason why meat prices have been steadily repaired this year is because the country has made it clear that the total stock of sows that can reproduce nationwide will drop from 42 million to no more than 39 million. Still from that point of view, I don't think this round of pig price rise is resilient, but as part of the cycle, the current stroke rate is good
The United States has given China some eye drops again, before Yellen's Qingming Festival came and went in a hurry, leaving a sentence of excess capacity, rat tail juice, which does not reflect the arc to come, it is said that Uncle Biden, who is about to celebrate his 80th birthday, will impose 100% punitive tariffs on China's new energy vehicles and solar cells. It's nice to be a person who lives in the history of the Cold War, and the only meaning of history is that it has no meaning. Under the previous closed-loop design of the dollar, the United States was the exporter and consumer of the dollar, China was the manufacturer, Russia and the Middle East were the raw material countries, Europe and the Americas were its own backyards, and Africa loved whoever it loved. Under this design, it is like a water cycle, and everyone is happy, but the US imperialists are now widowed by Wu Zetian, and they have lost Li Zhi, and they have to take a tough attack at the risk of the dollar system bursting. If it is placed around 2018, it will be unbearable for us, and now it is our turn to say who we love. Comment on this matter moderately, because the big judgment is that the overall impact on us will be emotional, no way, listen to the crickets, don't plant crops?
Historically in April, the M1 data shrank, not without history, but the previous macro situation and the present are completely incomparable, in the Three Gorges of history, the Chinese in the post-real estate era are generally panicked, do not consume, do not invest, only deposit, M1 can be translated as the total amount of funds that can be directly used for consumption and investment. How to solve this problem? Since everyone only saves money, it is better to save money as treasury bonds, and let the state help everyone spend money and make transfer payments. This year, the state plans to issue 1 trillion yuan, and this Friday, 40 billion yuan will be issued. In the future, the country's large-scale infrastructure and equipment renewal do not need to worry about financial problems, which has also achieved the current hot spots in the stock market, such as the rise of most banks, and the rise of some equipment companies such as Sany Heavy Industry, Yizumi, Xu Ji Electric, etc.? Don't waste a crisis, but most people end up paying by mistake, and you can never wake up someone who is pretending to be asleep
Finally, there is news from the latest large model released by OPEN-AI, there is a generation gap between China and the United States, we do have a gap in infrastructure, cutting-edge research, downstream operation and development, but the domestic equipment and material support are basically not bad, the United States is mainly entertainment-oriented, focusing on audio, visual, text integration, silky interaction. For A-share investors, try not to try to figure out something too cutting-edge and professional, we just need to understand that the relevant beneficiary direction is likely to be the iterative update of consumer electronics, and every time the Ai model is disclosed, it is good for the performance of game companies. Focusing on the potential heat of consumer electronics this year, we have lurked in advance Shunluo Electronics and other large component companies, opening up the world is very good, at least some of our investment layout, are not behind closed doors.
Just now, Tencent released a quarterly report, gross profit growth rate of more than 20% for the fourth consecutive quarter, since the second half of 22, Tencent has achieved operating profit and gross profit growth for six consecutive quarters exceeded the revenue growth rate. In addition, in the first quarter of this year, 14.8 billion Hong Kong dollars were repurchased, with an average daily repurchase amount of 824 million Hong Kong dollars, a record high. This can partly explain the recent activity of Hong Kong stocks, Hong Kong stocks, after all, have the alias of Tencent. In other words, those who like AI-themed investment, everyone should also know that the ultimate beneficiary will be domestic Internet companies and the like. Point to point